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In February, IBGE forecasts record crop of 261.6 million metric tons for 2022

March 10, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: March 14, 2022 12h16 PM

In February, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2022 should total a record 261.6 million metric tons, 3.3% above (8.4 million metric tons) that obtained in 2021 (253.2 million metric tons ) and a decline of -3.8% (-10.2 million metric tons) in relation to the previous information report (271.9 million metric tons). The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) points out that the area to be harvested is 71.2 million hectares, 3.9% (2.7 million hectares) greater than the area harvested in 2021 and 0.1% ( 88,500 hectares) higher than what was expected in the previous month.

FEBRUARY estimate for 2022 261.6 million metric tons
February 2022 / JANUARY 2022 - change -3.8% (-10.2 million metric tons)
2022 / 2021 Crop change 3.3% (8.4 million metric tons)

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which, altogether, represented 92.7% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.7% of the area to be harvested. Against 2021, there were increases of 6.0% in the area for corn production (6.5% in the first crop and 5.8% in the second one), of 7.2% in the area for upland cotton and 3.7% in the area for soybeans. In the area for rice (-2.0%) and wheat (-1.2%), there were declines.

Soybean production is expected to total 123.0 million metric tons, an 8.8% decrease compared to 2021, and corn production (0.1% decline in the first crop and 33.8% increase in the second), totaling 108.7 million metric tons, with growth of 23.9% compared to 2021.  The output of rice was estimated at 10.7 million metric tons, a drop of 7.9% over the production last year.

The February´s report for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2022 reached 261.9 million metric tons and a harvested area of 71.2 million hectares. The area to be harvested rose 3.9% (2.7 million hectares) in relation to 2021. It rose 88.5 thousand hectares (0.1%) in relation to the forecast in the previous month.

The Northeast (1.4%) and North Regions (3.4%) had increase in its estimates over the previous month. They should produce 24.7 million metric tons and 12.4 million metric tons, respectively. The greatest drop was recorded in the South (13.7%), which should add up to 69.2 million metric tons. The Southeast (26.8 million metric tons) and the Central-West (128.4 million metric tons) did not have change in their production estimates over the previous month.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso leads as the main national producer, with a share of 29.6%, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (10.8%), Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.8%) and Minas Gerais (6.4%), which, together, represented 79.2% of the national overall. The positive changes in the production estimates against the previous month took place in Tocantins (332.4 thousand metric tons), in Bahia (306.8 thousand metric tons), in Rondônia (107.0 thousand metric tons), in Mato Grosso do Sul (24.2 thousand metric tons), in Maranhão (16.9 thousand metric tons), in Ceará (11.1 thousand metric tons) and in Rio de Janeiro (286 thousand metric tons).

Conversely, the negative changes occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-10.0 million metric tons), Paraná (-1.0 million metric tons) and Amapá (-29.2 thousand metric tons).

Highlights in February 2022 estimate in relation to January

In February, the highlights were positive changes in the following output estimates against January: corn - 2nd crop (0.50% or 395.1 thousand metric tons), sorghum (2.3% or 62.5 thousand metric tons) and cacao (2.3% or 6.5  thousand metric tons).

On the other hand, declines are expected in the production of soybeans (-6.7% or -8.8 million metric tons), corn 1st crop (-5.9% or -1.6 million metric tons), potatoes 1st crop (-3.5% or -62.8 thousand metric tons), rice (-3.2% or -348.5 thousand metric tons), grapes (-1.4% or -23.1 thousand metric tons ) and potatoes 2nd crop (-1.0% or -11.7 thousand metric tons).

PADDY RICE - The estimate for rice production was of 10.7 million metric tons, a decline of 3.2% over the previous month and of 7.9% over the previous year. The severe droughts in the South Region has affected upland crops and hindered a great part of the others, being the main responsible for the drop.

Rio Grande do Sul is responsible for 69.8% of national production, and is expected to produce 7.5 million metric tons, down 4.4% from the previous month.  In the annual comparison, the drop was of 9.9%, with productivity of 8,004 kg/ha, reduction of 8.4%.

POTATOES - The second estimate of potato production, considering the three crops of the product, was 3.7 million metric tons, a decline of 2.0% in relation to the month of January.  The planted area to be harvested had reductions of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively and the average yield dropped 1.5%. In relation to 2021, the national production estimate of potatoes also presents drops of 10.7%.

CACAO (nuts) - The production estimate was 286.7 thousand metric tons, representing an increase of 2.3% against the previous month and a decline of 7.7% in relation to the previous year. Pará and Bahia, the largest producers of this product, should account for 93.6% of the national output this year. Cacao production in 2021 benefited from a more abundant and regular rainfall regime.  In 2022, despite the good rainfalls in Bahia, at the beginning of the year, producers are less optimistic about the weather for the rest of the year.    

CORN (grain) - The output estimate of corn should reach 108.7 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.1% against the previous month and a growth of 23.9% against 2021. After a significant decrease in production in 2021, an effect of the delay in planting of the 2nd crop and the lack of rain in the main producing states, a year within normal occurrences is expected, which means the recovery of crops, and it must reach a new national level.

For corn - 1st crop, the estimate was of an output of 25.6 million metric tons, a decline of 5.9% in relation to the previous month and of 0.1% in relation to the 2021 crop, despite the increase of 6.5% in the area to be harvested. In Rio Grande do Sul, production was estimated at 3.9 million metric tons, a decline of 30.2% in relation to January, with a reduction of 28.6% in the average yield.  The crops in Rio Grande do Sul faced severe droughts that compromised their growth.

In Paraná, the estimate was of an output of 2.8 million metric tons, a rise of 1.4% in relation to the previous month and yet a decrease of 11.3% in relation to the 2021 crop. n Minas Gerais, production should reach 5.1 million metric tons, an increase of 4.5% in relation to the previous year, and should surpass Rio Grande do Sul (15.0% contribution) making the state the largest producer of corn. of the country in the 1st crop in 2022, with 20.0% of the total.  In Mato Grosso do Sul, the production estimate increased 13.3% compared to the previous month, growing 49.4% compared to 2021.  In relation to the previous year, production estimates show declines of 19.1% in São Paulo and 8.7% in Goiás, and increases in Bahia (10.5%), Mato Grosso (28.4%) and in Piauí (17.4%).

For corn - 2nd crop, the estimate was of an output of 83.1 million metric tons, an increase of 0.5% in relation to the previous month and of 33.8% in relation to the 2021, with a growth of 4.1% in the area to be planted. In the 2021 crop, in addition to the unfavorable weather, the agricultural year was delayed, shortening the “planting window”, which further helped to reduce production, since it left the crops more exposed to rainfall restrictions during the production cycle.   

For 2022, a more favorable climate situation is expected for the 2nd corn crop, production is expected to grow in Mato Grosso (12.5%), Paraná (170.2%), Goiás (14.5% ), from Mato Grosso do Sul (54.1%), from Minas Gerais (51.7%), from São Paulo (68.4%), from Rondônia (11.5%), from Tocantins (1.5% ), Piauí (77.1%), Alagoas (50.2%) and the Federal District (64.7%)  On the other hand, declines are expected in Bahia (-8.3%), Maranhão (-10.6%), Sergipe (-0.8%) and Pará (-2.8%).

SOYBEANS (grain) - The new soybean production estimate, the main commodity in Brazil, totaled 123.0 million metric tons, a drop of 6.7% over January estimate and of 8.8% in comparison with the last year. Even with high investments in soybean production, the adverse effects caused by droughts has affected drastically the performance of the summer crops in the states of the center-south of the country.

As a result, even if a 3.7% increase in planted areas is confirmed, which should total 40.4 million hectares, there is an estimate of a 12.0% drop in the average soybean yield in 2022, reaching the level of 3,045 kg/ha, bringing the national production down.

As the biggest producer, Mato Grosso, which should account once again for more than one quarter of the national production, estimated a total of 37.5 million tonnes, an increase of 5.1% in relation to the previous year. With the expected crop failure in the southern states, Goiás should account for the second largest volume of soybeans produced in the country this year.  Even with the expected drop of 0.8% in the average yield, the production should grow 3.1% and hit 13.5 million metric tons, as a result of the increase in the cropping areas, which should grow 3.9% in the year.

Rio Grande do Sul, which this month revised production down by 37.8%, confirming crop failure, estimated for 2022 a production of 13.1 million metric tons, down 35.8% compared to the previous crop.  In Paraná, once again there was a significant monthly revision in the state production estimate, with a drop of 10.6%, which reinforces crop failure this year, which should be 40.7% lower than the previous production, also due to the effects of the drought, combined with intense heat.  With an expected output of 11.8 million metric tons, the retraction of 41.4% in the average yield was the major cause of the drop in the state production.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, an increase of 6.4% in the harvested area is expected, raising the production estimate to 12.7 million metric tons, while in Minas Gerais, the estimate is for a production of 7.2 million metric tons, a growth of 2.6% in the year.

SORGHUM (grain) - The estimated production for the 2022 crops was of 2.87 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.3% in relation to January and of 15.5% over the previous year.  In 2021, the weather unfavored the second crops,. A regular weather is expected for 2022, especially more rainfall in the major producing Federation Units. 

In Bahia, the estimate of the sorghum output was of 134.8 thousand metric tons, an increase of 17.1% in relation to the and a decline of 5.2% over 2021. The output in Goiás should hit 1.2 million metric tons, a rise of 8.8% over 2021, with the average yield probably increasing 10.3%. For Minas Gerais, a growth of 38.1% was expected for the production, which should hit 780.4 thousand metric tons. The average yield should increase 33.6%. In Mato Grosso, the output should hit 151.1 thousand metric tons, an increase of 4.9% in annual terms and, in Mato Grosso do Sul, 82.0 thousand metric tons, an increase of 13.7%. In the Federal District, the production was estimated at 48.0 thousand metric tons, 36.8% above the previous year.

GRAPES - The output estimate of grapes was 1.6 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.4% against the previous month and of 4.1% against 2021. In Rio Grande do Sul, the country's largest producer, with 54.1% of the total, the production estimate was reduced by 2.5% in relation to January, to 882.8 thousand metric tons, falling 7.2% in relation to 2021.  The drought caused direct effects on the crop, and it may also influence the next one, affecting the physiological development of the plant.

São Paulo production should reach 146.9 thousand metric tons, a decline of 0.3% in relation to the previous year, while production in Paraná (56.2 thousand metric tons) and Santa Catarina (57.4 thousand metric tons) should show a decline of 1.4% and 3.7%, respectively, in the same comparison.  Pernambuco and Bahia repeated the production data reported last January.  They should produce 399.0 million metric tons and 60.8 million metric tons, respectively.