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IBGE expects record harvest of 277.1 million tonnes in 2022

January 11, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 12, 2022 11h27 PM

The third forecast for the 2022 harvest shows that the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to reach 277.1 million tonnes. Despite the decrease (-0.3%) against the 2nd forecast, the estimate still represents a record. The increase of output in the year was mainly due to the expanded production of soybeans (2.5% or 3.3 million tonnes) and of corn (1st and 2nd crop, with 21.3 million tonnes more).

Estimate - DECEMBER 2021 253.2 million tonnes
Change - December 2021/ November 2021 (0,2%) 420.6 thousand tonnes
Change - harvest in 2021/ harvest in 2020 (-0.4%) -0.9 million tonnes
Estimate - DECEMBER 2022 277.1 million tonnes
Change - harvest in 2022/ harvest in 2021 (9.4%) 23.9 million tonnes
Change - 3rd harvest/ 2nd harvest 2022 (-0.3%) 0.9 million tonnes

The final estimate for the 2021 harvest amounted to 253.2 million tonnes, being 0.4% (0.9 million tonnes) below that obtained in 2020 (254.1 million tonnes). Against the previous estimate, there was an increase of 420.6 thousand tonnes (0.2%). Rice, corn and soybeans accounted for 92.6% of the output and for 87.3% of the harvested area.

In the case of soybeans, the output estimate for 2021 was 134.9 million tonnes; of corn, 97.8 million tonnes (25.7 million tonnes in the 1st crop and 62.1 million tonnes in the second crop); of rice, 11.6 million tonnes; of wheat, 7.8 million of cotton (seed), 5.8 million tonnes.

The estimate for 2021 recorded a positive annual change in three Major Regions: South (5.2%), North (11.8%) and Northeast (1.9%). The Central West (-4.3%) and the Southeast (-4.6%) recorded decreases.

The 12th estimate for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2021 reached 253.2 million tonnes and a harvested area of 68.6 million hectares. From 2020, there was an increase of 3.1 million hectares in terms of harvested area (4.8%). Against the estimate of last month, there was an increase of 136.5 thousand hectares (0.2%).

Compared to the previous year, there were increases of 5.6% in the area for corn (1.4% in the first crop and 7.2% in the second crop), of 0.3% in the area for rice, of 16.9% in the area for wheat and 5.2% in that for soybean. The area for upland cottonseed dropped 16.0%.

In terms of output, there was an increase of 11.0% for soybean, of 5.2% for paddy rice and of 25.8% for wheat. On the other hand, there were drops in upland seed cotton (-17.5%) and corn (-15.0%), with decreases of 3.5% in corn (1st crop) and of 18.9% in the 2nd crop.

Against November, there were oincreases in output estimates for potato 3rd crop (22.9% or 192.3 thousand tonnes), orange (12.8% or 1.7 million tonnes), coffea canephora (6.8% or 64.7 thousand tonnes), cacao (4.4% or 13.0 thousand tonnes), soybean (0.5% or 679.4 thousand), corn 1st crop (0.1% or 25.0 thousand tonnes).

There were drops in output estimates for corn 2nd crop (-0.6% or -355.4 thousand tonnes), coffea arabica (-1.2% or -24.2 thousand tonnes), sugarcane (-2.0% or -12.1 million tonnes), tomato (-2.9% or -114.1 thousand tonnes) and cashew nuts (-10.3% or -12.7 thousand tonnes).

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led as the biggest national producer of grain, with a share of 28.2%, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (14.9%), Paraná (13.5%), Goiás (9.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.7%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%), which, together, represented 79.8% of the national overall.

Among the Major Regions, the Central-West produced 111.5 million tonnes (46.1% of the total in the country), the South, 76.9 million tonnes (30.4%), the Southeast, 24.6 million tonnes (9.9%), the Northeast, 23.0 million tonnes (9.1%) and the North, 12.3 million tonnes (4.5%). The output estimate recorded an annualpositive change in three Major Regions: South (5.2%), Northeast (1.9%) and North (11.8%). The Central West (-4.3%) and Southeast (-4.6%) recorded decrease.

Highlights of the December estimate for the 2021 harvest

The positive changes in the production estimates against the previous month took place in Tocantins (705.6 thousand tonnes), in Rio Grande do Sul (62.4 thousand tonnes), in Bahia (50.0 thousand tonnes), in Sergipe (28.3 thousand tonnes), in Rondônia (10.5 thousand tonnes), in Pernambuco (9.3 thousand tonnes) and in Ceará (3.7 thousand tonnes). São Paulo (-426.7 thousand tonnes), Alagoas (-13.4 thousand tonnes), Mato Grosso do Sul (-7.1 thousand tonnes) and Goiás (-2.0 thousand tonnes) recorded negative results.

POTATO - Considering the three crops of this product, the estimate is that the legume closed the year with an output of 4.1 million tonnes, 4.9% above the November estimate. A highlight is the state of São Paulo, which revaluated the output estimate of potato production with an increase of 28.8% against the previous month. Against 2020, the output estimate for potato recorded an increase of 12.1%.

CACAO (nuts) – The production estimate was 310.5 thousand tonnes, representing an increase of 4.4% against the previous month. Pará and Bahia should account for 93.8% of the national output in 2021. In Pará, the estimated production stayed at 146.4 thousand tonnes; in Bahia, at 145,.1 thousand tonnes. Against the previouss year, the Brazilian output is 10.6% bigger.

COFFEE BEAN – Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee was of 2.9 million tonnes, or 49.0 million 60-kg sacks, with a decrease of 1.4% against the previous month and a decrease of 21.1% against the previous year. In 2021, the harvest of arabica follows a biennial cycle, which resulted in a significant decrease of production (-21.1%), closing the year at 1.9 million tonnes. Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was 1.0 million tonnes, with increases of 6.8% against the previous month and of 17.7% against 2020.

SUGARCANE – The Brazilian output of sgarcane was 609.3 million tonnes, representing a reduction of 2.0% in relation to the previous month. The average yield of the sugarcane crops decreased 3.4%, and reached 68,778 kg/ha in the national average, one of the lowest in the last few years. Against 2020, the decrease in output was of 10.1%.

Productivity of sugarcane crops fell 9.1% due to climatic problems faced throughout the cycle of this crop. São Paulo, the main producing state, produced almost half of the national output: 301.8 million tonnes, despite the decrease in productivity of 13.8% in sugar crops compared to the previous year. Goiás, Paraná and Minas Gerais also recorded annual decreases in production: 5.5%, 10.1% and 10.8%, respectively.

CASHEW NUTS The production estimate was 110.7 thousand tonnes, a decline of 10.3% against the previous month. In comparison with the previous year, there was a decrease of 20.2% in output in the country. The biggest producers in Brazil are Ceará (63.1 thousand tonnes), Piauí (19.0 thousand tonnes) and Rio Grande do Norte (16.7 thousand tonnes). In Ceará, the largest planted area is occupied with old and aged crops, which, year after year, have been cut down and used as logwood.

ORANGE - The estimated production is 15.3 million tonnes, with an increase of 12.8% against the previous month, recording, however, a decrease of 2.7% against 2021. In São Paulo, the main producer, accounting for 78.8% of the national overall, the output was estimated at 12.1 million tonnes, with an increase of 2.0% in relation to the previous year. But, in Minas Gerais, the output estimate was revaluated in December, pointing to a decrease of 72.7% in the same comparison. The dry period and the frosts reduced output, having generated smaller fruits with lower quality. .

CORN GRAIN With an area to be harvested of 19.7 million hectares and an average yield of 4,550 kg/ha, output estimate declined by 0.4%, and reached 87.8 million tonnes. In relation to the previous year, the output was expected to be 15.0% smaller, despite the increases of 7.5% in planted area and of 5.6% in harvested area. The average yield dropped 19.5% in this comparison.

For the 1st crop the estimated output is 25.7 million tonnes, with an increase of 0.1% against the previous month, and a decrease of 3.5% against 2020. In the 2nd crop, output estimate was 62.1 million tonnes, with a decrease of 0.6% in relation to the previous month and of 18.9% in relation to the previous year, although planted area has increased by 9.2%. The average yield is expected to decline by 24.4%, mainly due to the lack of rainfall during the crop cycle in many producing units.

SOYBEAN GRAINThe estimated production of soybean amounted to 134.9 million tonnes and recorded an increment of 0.5% in comparison with the previous month. Despite the occurrence of late rainfall in the planting period, the crop developed properly in most Federation Unit, registering a new output record in the time series, having exceeded the previous harvest by 11.0%.

The increase of 5.2% in the harvesteed area in the country and the recovery of output in Rio Grande do Sul were the main factors accounting for the good results. The highlight in 2021 was the recovery of production in Rio Grande do Sul, with an increase of 80.8% against 2020, which accounted for an increment of 9.1 million tonnes. Last year, crops in the state were affected by a long drought, which took average yield down and production, as well.

For 2020, third forecast estimates a harvest 9.4% bigger than in 2021

In this third forecast, the Brazilian harvest of grain, cereals and legumes in 2022 is expected to hit a record and hit 277.1 million tonnes, with an increase of 23.9 million tonnes (9.4%) against 2021. The increase was mainly due to the bigger production of soybeans (2.5% or 3.3 million tonnes), corn - 1st crop (11.2% or 2.9 million tonnes), corn - 2nd crop (29.4% or 18.3 million tonnes), upland cottonseed 4.6% or 268.9 thousand tonnes), sorghum (11.4% or 274.6 thousand tonnes), beans - 1st crop (10.8% or 124.7 thousand tonnes) and beans - 2nd crop (4.6% or 47.2 thousand tonnes).

The survey also estimates drops in the production of rice (-4.9% or 563.9 thousand tonnes), beans - 3rd crop (-0.9% or 5.4 thousand tonnes) and wheat (-7.4% or 581.3 thousand tonnes).

SOYBEAN GRAINThe third output estimate for 2022 points to an increase of 2.5% in the production of soybean, in relation to 2021. The volume of production was estimated at 138.3 million tonnes, a new record in the output of this legume and more than half of the total of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2022. Opposite to the 2021 harvest, when there was delay in planting, in the current harvest, sowing of soybean took place in advance, in an accelerated way, in most producing areas.

CORN GRAIN The estimate for the production of milk is of 108.9 million tonnes, a decrease of 478.3 thousand tonnes against the 2nd crop (-0.4%), but an increase of 24.1% in relation to the 2021 harvest (21.2 million tonnes more). After a significant decrease in production in 2021, an effect of the delay in planting of the 2nd crop and the lack of rain in the main producing units, a year within normal occurrences is observed, and that will promote the recovery of crops, and it must reach a new natioanl level.

SORGHUM GRAINThe estimated production for the 2022 harvest was of 2.7 million tonnes, with an increase of 1.7% in relation to the previous month. Since most of the production of sorghum is conducted in between harvests and the agricultural year started with no delay, a wider window of planting is also expected, which is favorable in terms of climatic risks. However, against the bigger profitability and liquidity of corn, producers should invest more in this cereal.

UPLAND COTTONSEED The production estimate fis 6.1 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% in relation to the previous month and of 4.6% against 2021. The recovery of cotton lint and the increase of international demand must encourage producers to expand planted area. In Mato Grosso, the main national producer, with 68.8% of the output, an increase of 4.9% in output is expected against the previous harvest. Most of the areas producing cotton in the state are planted in the 2nd crop, after the harvest of soybeans. The start of the rain period within the ideal period led to early planting of soybeans, which will also favor the 2nd crop.

PADDY RICE The third estimate points to a production of 11.1 million tonnes, decreases of 0.4% against the previous month and of 4.9% agaisnt the previous year. But that output should be enough to supply the Brazilian domestic market.

BEAN SEED The estimated production of beans for 2022 is 2.9 million tonnes, with an increase of 6.0% against the 2021 harvest. The first crop is expected to produce 1.3 million tonnes; the second crop, 1.1 million tonnes and the third crop, 591.4 thousand tonnes. This output volume is aimed at domestic consumption in 2022.