GDP changes -0.1% in Q3 2021
December 02, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 06, 2021 12h41 PM
In the seasonally-adjusted series, the Gross Domestic Product - GDP changed -0.1% in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the second quarter of 2021. It increased 4.0% in relation to the same period in 2020.
|GDP||AGRIC||INDUS||SERV||GFCF||CONS. HHOLDS||CONS. GOV|
|Quarter / immediately previous quarter (with seasonal adjustment)||-0.1%||-8.0%||0.0%||1.1%||-0.1%||0.9%||0.8%|
|Quarter / same quarter a year ago (without seasonal adjustment)||4.0%||-9.0%||1.3%||5.8%||18.8%||4.2%||3.5%|
|Cumulative in four quarters / same period a year ago (without seasonal adjustment)||3.9%||0.2%||5.1%||3.3%||20.2%||2.1%||0.4%|
|Valores correntes no 3º trimestre (R$)||2.2 trillion||123.7 billion||455.4 billion||1.3 trillion||430.5 billion||1.3 trillion||406.2 billion|
|Investment rate (GFCF/GDP) in Q3 2021 = 19.4%|
|Savings rate (SAVING/GDP) in Q3 2021 = 18.6%|
The cumulative GDP over the four months ending in September rose 3.9% in relation to the four immediately previous quarters. In the cumulative index in the year up to September, the GDP advanced 5.7% against the same period last year.
The GDP added up to R$2.2 trillion at current values in the third quarter of 2021, with R$1.9 trillion in Value added (VA) at basic prices and R$334.3 billion in Product taxes net of subsidies.
The investment rate was 19.4% of the GDP in the third quarter of 2021, which represented an increase in relation to the third quarter of 2020 (16.4%).
|TABLE II.1 - Main results of the GDP at market prices from Q3 2020 to Q3 2021|
|Cumulative in the year / same period a year ago||-4.9||-3.9||1.3||6.5||5.7|
|Last four quarters / four immediately previous quarters||-3.3||-3.9||-3.5||1.9||3.9|
|Quarter / same quarter a year ago||-3.7||-0.9||1.3||12.3||4.0|
|Quarter / immediately previous quarter (with seasonal adjustment)||7.8||3.1||1.3||-0.4||-0.1|
|Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais|
GDP changes -0.1% in relation to immediately previous quarter
In the seasonally-adjusted series, the GDP changed -0.1% in the third quarter of 2021 against the previous quarter. Agriculture fell 8.0%, Industry remained stable (0.0%) and Services rose 1.1%.
Among the industrial activities, Electricity and gas, water, sewage and waste management activities dropped 1.1% in the Manufacturing industries and Mining and quarrying industries, 0.4%. Only Construction (3.9%) increased.
In Services, the following activities rose: Other services activities (4.4%), Information and communication (2.4%), Transportation, storage and mailing (1.2%), Administration, defense, public health and education, and social security (0.8%). Real estate activities (0.0%) remained stable and only Financial activities, insurance and related services (-0.5%) and Trade (-0.4%) registered negative changes.
Under the point of view of expenditure, Gross fixed capital formation registered a negative change of 0.1% in relation to the immediately previous quarter. Household consumption expenditure expanded 0.9% and Government consumption expenditure, 0.8%.
In the foreign sector, both Exports of Goods and Services (-9.8%) and Imports of Goods and Services (-8.3%) dropped in relation to the second quarter of 2021.
GDP grows 4.0% over the same period a year ago
The GDP rose 4.0% in the third quarter of 2021 in relation to the same period in the previous year. The Value Added at basic prices recorded a positive change of 3.7% and Product Taxes Net of Subsidies advanced 6.2%.
Among the activities, Agriculture fell 9.0% in relation to the same period in 2020. This result was mainly explained by the performance of some farm products that have a relevant harvest in the third quarter and showed a retraction in the estimate of annual output and loss of productivity: coffee (-22.4%), cotton (-17.5%), corn (-16.0%), orange (-13.8%) and sugarcane (-7.6%). Furthermore, the estimates for Livestock also pointed to a weak performance in the quarter under analysis.
Industry rose 1.3%. Among its activities, Construction showed the best result in volume of the value added (10.9%), supported by the increase in employment in this activity. Mining and quarrying industries also increased (3.5%) over the third quarter of 2020, leveraged by the rise in the extraction of iron ore.
In turn, the activity of Electricity and gas, water, sewage and waste management activities dropped 4.6%, due to the tariff flags as a result of the water shortage in Brazil. Likewise, Manufacturing industries fell 0.7%, mainly influenced by the drops in the manufacture of food products, furniture, beverages, electric material and computer equipment.
The value added of Services advanced 5.8% in the comparison with the same period last year, highlighted by the rise in Information and communication (14.8%), Other services activities (13.5%) and Transportation, storage and mailing (13.1%).
The following activities also rose: Administration, defense, public health and education, and social security (2.9%), Trade (2.8%) and Real estate activities (1.7%). Only Financial activities, insurance and related services (-1.3%) dropped, affected by the increase of accidents, especially in the case of health plans.
Household consumption expenditure recorded a positive figure for the second consecutive quarter (4.2%), influenced by the increase in employment in the labor market, expansion of credit to physical persons and advance in the vaccination. Government consumption expenditure grew 3.5% in the period.
Gross fixed capital formation recorded a positive change of 18.8% in the third quarter of 2021. The magnitude of this result was justified by the rise in the production and in the imports of capital goods, as well as by the growth in Construction.
In the foreign sector, Exports of Goods and Services rose 4.0%, whereas Imports of Goods and Services increased 20.6% in the third quarter of 2021.
Cumulative GDP between January and September grows 5.7%
In the cumulative GDP in the year up to the third quarter of 2021, the GDP rose 5.7% in relation to the same period in 2020. In this comparison, Industry (6.5%) and Services (5.2%) posted a positive change, whereas Agriculture registered a negative change (0.1%).
Investment rate is 19.4% in the third quarter
In the third quarter of 2021, the investment rate was 19.4% of the GDP against 16.4% in the same period last year. The savings rate was 18.6% in the third quarter of 2021, higher than the rate of 16.2% reported in the same period of 2020.
Revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts
Whenever the third quarter of each year is released, the Quarterly National Accounts suffer a more comprehensive revision. In this release, the major points revised are highlighted below:
|Table I.1 - Revision of the annual growth rates - 2020|
|Before (%)||After (%)||Diff p.p.|
|Household Consumption Expenditure||-5.5||-5.4||0.0|
|Government Consumption Expenditure||-4.7||-4.5||0.2|
|Gross Fixed Capital Formation||-0.8||-0.5||0.3|
|Exports of Goods and Services||-1.8||-1.8||-0.1|
|Imports of Goods and Services (-)||-10.0||-9.8||0.1|
|Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais.|
|Table I.2 - Revision of the growth rates of the quarter against the same quarter a year ago|
|Q1 2021||Q2 2021|
|Before (%)||After (%)||Before (%)||After (%)|
|Household Consumption Expenditure||-1.7||-1.7||10.8||10.5|
|Government Consumption Expenditure||-4.9||-3.9||4.2||5.8|
|Gross Fixed Capital Formation||17.0||17.8||32.9||33.1|
|Exports of Goods and Services||0.8||1.0||14.1||14.2|
|Imports of Goods and Services (-)||7.7||7.5||20.2||20.3|
|Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais.|