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IBGE forecasts record harvest of 270.7 million tonnes for 2022, a rise of 7.8% over 2021

November 11, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 17, 2021 03h01 PM

The first estimate for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2022 was of a record harvest of 270.7 million tonnes, a rise of 7.8% (or more 19.5 million tonnes) against 2021.

On the other hand, the estimate for October for the 2021 harvest hit 251.2 million tonnes, 1.2% smaller (or less 3.0 million tonnes) than that of 2020 (254.1 million tonnes). The area to be harvested was of 68.5 million hectares, a rise of 4.6% over 2020. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which accounted for 92.5% of the output estimate and for 87.6% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to 2020, the area for corn increased 6.4% (increase of 1.6% in the first crop and increase of 8.1% in the second crop), the area for rice, 0.3% and the area for soybeans, 4.8%, while the area for upland cotton declined 15.9%.

Concerning the production, that of soybeans increased 10.3% and that of paddy rice, 4.5%, whereas upland cotton (-17.5%) and corn (-16.0%) declined, with a reduction of 2.8% in corn - 1st crop and of 20.6% in corn - 2nd crop.

October´s estimate for 2022 270.7 million tonnes
2022 harvest / 2021 harvest change 7.8% (19.5 million tonnes)
2021 harvest / 2020 harvest change -1.2 % (3.0 million tonnes)
2021 harvest / 9th estimate 2021 change 0.1% (236.1 thousand tonnes)

In October 2021, IBGE carried out the first projection of the area and production for the 2022 harvest. The Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes should add up to 270.7 million tonnes in 2022, a growth of 7.8% over 2021 or 19.5 million tonnes, establishing a record in the IBGE´s time series.

The increase in the output was mainly due to the bigger production expected for soybeans (0.8% or 1.1 million tonnes), corn - 1st crop (11.1% or 2.8 million), corn - 2nd crop (26.8% or 16.3 million), upland cottonseed (2.4% or 84.9 thousand), sorghum (12.8% or 302.4 thousand), beans - 1st crop (6.9% or 80.9 thousand) and beans - 2nd crop (9.8% or 101 thousand). The survey also estimates drops in the production of rice (-3.9% or 451.7 thousand tonnes), beans - 3rd crop (-0.9% or 5.1 thousand) and wheat (-10.0% or 785.8 thousand).

The first estimate for the crop to be harvested in 2022 is reviewable in the next two surveys, in November and December, as well as during the follow up of the harvests that will be carried out along 2022.

2021 harvest should reach 251.2 million tonnes, a drop of 1.2%

On the other hand, the estimate for October for the 2021 harvest hit 251.2 million tonnes, 1.2% smaller (or less 3.0 million tonnes) than that of 2020 (254.1 million tonnes).

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, and, together, accounted for 92.5% of the output estimate and for 87.6% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to 2020, the area for corn increased 6.4% (increase of 1.6% in the first crop and increase of 8.1% in the second crop), the area for rice, 0.3% and the area for soybeans, 4.8%, while the area for upland cotton declined 15.9%.

Concerning the output, soybeans rose 10.3% and paddy rice, 4.5%, whereas upland cotton (-17.5%) and corn (-16.0%, being -2.8% in the first crop and -20.6% in the second one) dropped.

A production of 134.1 million tonnes was estimated for soybeans. For corn, the estimate was of 86.7 million tonnes (25.9 million tonnes of corn - 1st crop and 60.9 million tonnes of corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 11.5 million tonnes and that of upland cottonseed, at 5.8 million tonnes.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds registered a positive annual change for three regions: South (5.3%), North (4.5%) and Northeast (1.5%). In two of them, the annual change was negative: Central-West (-5.7%) and Southeast (-2.7%).

In relation to September, the estimates for the output of beans - 2nd crop (6.8% or 65 thousand tonnes), tomatoes (1.3% or 50.4 thousand), coffea canephora (1.0% or 9.3 thousand), corn - 2nd crop (0.6% or 364.7 thousand), corn - 1st crop (0.4% or 110.6 thousand), beans - 3rd crop (0.1% or 763 tonnes) and soybeans (0.0% or 50 thousand) increased, and the estimates for the output of barley (-7.1% or 34.2 thousand), wheat (-3.8% or 312.3 thousand), oat (-1.5% or 15.6 thousand), beans - 1st crop (-0.2% or 2.6 thousand) and coffea arabica (-0.2% or 3.5 thousand) declined.

In the distribution of the production by Federation Unit, Mato Grosso led as the biggest national grain producer with a share of 28.5%, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (15.0%), Paraná (13.2%), Goiás (9.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.7%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%). These states together accounted for 79.7% of the national result.

In relation to the participation of the Brazilian regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (45.7%), South (30.6%), Southeast (10.0%), Northeast (9.1%) and North (4.6%).