Industry prices changed by 0.40% in September, lower than in the comparison between July and August (1.89%). There was a positive change in prices in 20 of the 24 activities surveyed, against 24 in the previous month. The cumulative increase in the year reached 24.08% and in 12 months, 30.59%.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) of the Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the evolution of "factory gate" prices, excluding taxes and freight, and covers information by major economic categories: capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods (durable and semi-durable and non-durable).

Between August and September of 2021, the prices of the mining and manufacturing industries – overall industry – changed 0.40%, a figure below that reported in the comparison between July and August (1.89%). It is worth mentioning that 0.40% is the lowest result since December 2020, 0.39%, and is 2.30 pp below the average observed between January and August 2021, 2.70%.  The four biggest changes in September occurred among the products of the following activities: mining and quarrying industries (-16.48%), other chemical products (4.41%), food (2.48%) and tobacco (2.40%).

The highest influences in the same comparison were: mining and quarrying industries (-1.24 pp), food products (0.58 pp), other chemicals (0.39 pp) and petroleum refining and ethanol products (0.18 pp).

The cumulative index in the year – September 2021 against December 2020 – hit 24.08%, against 23.58% in August. Among the activities that registered the highest percentage changes in this indicator, the highlights were: petroleum refining and ethanol products (49.69%), other chemicals (43.38%), basic metals (42.13%) and mining and quarrying industries (40.72%). The sectors that exerted the biggest influence were: petroleum refining and ethanol products (4.19 pp), food products (3.96 pp), other chemicals (3.48 pp) and basic metals (2.75 pp).

The cumulative index in 12 months – September 2021 against December 2020 – hit 30.59%, against 33.12% in August. Among the activities that registered the highest percentage changes in this indicator, the highlights were: petroleum refining and ethanol products (64.33%), basic metals (55.18%), other chemicals (51.83%) and mining and quarrying industries (49.71%). The sectors of higher influence were: food products (5.76 pp), petroleum refining and ethanol products (5.20 pp), other chemicals  (4.13 pp) and basic metals (3.48 pp).

Among the major economic categories, the price change of 0.40% against August reflected as follows: capital goods, 1.30%; intermediate goods, -0.27%; and consumer goods, 1.37%, with 0.73% being the change observed in durable consumer goods and 1.49% in semi and non-durable consumer goods.

In the result of the General Industry, the influence of the Major Economic Categories was: 0.09 pp of capital goods, -0.16 pp of intermediate goods and 0.47 pp. of consumer goods. In the case of consumer goods, 0.04 pp was due to price changes of durable consumer goods and 0.43 pp of semi and non-durable consumer goods.

As to the cumulative index over the year, price changes of industry reached until September, a 24.08% change: 15.51% of capital goods (with influence of 1,13 pp), 30.08% of intermediate goods (16.76 pp) and 16.73% of consumer goods (6.19 pp). Consumer goods was influenced at 0.80 pp by durable consumer goods and 5.39 pp by semi-and non-durable consumer goods.

In the cumulative index over 12 months, the price change in the industry reached, in September, 30.59%, with the following changes: capital goods, 17.31% (1.31 pp); intermediate goods, 39.38% (21.55 pp); and consumer goods, 20.51% (7.74 pp), but the influence of durable consumer goods was 1.02 pp and of semi and non-durable consumer goods, of 6.73 pp.

The following sectors stood out:

Mining and quarrying industries: in September, sector prices varied -16.48% compared to August.  Therefore, the cumulative index in the year shrank from 68.49% in August to 40.72%. In 12 months, the September change is 49.71%, 32.32 pp lower than that of August.  A negative change as intense as that of September had not occurred since March 2020 (-17.12%), with only one rate between these two periods surpassing the two in module, the 27.91% of February 2021.  At that time, the downward pressure was made by the prices of “crude petroleum oil”, while the most recent, by the prices of iron ore.

The sector had, in September, the biggest change compared to the previous month (-16.48%) among the highlighted activities and the fourth change both in the cumulative result for the year and in the last 12 months.  It was also the main influence in the September/August comparison (-1.24 p.p.), at 0.40%.

Food: compared to the previous month, the result of 2.48% is the third consecutive positive, being the second highest in the 2021 series (loses to April, 2.66%).  With this result, the cumulative index in the year reaches 15.42%, which, for a month of September, is the second highest in the series (loses for September 2020, 22.72%).  Finally, in 12 months, the average change in food prices was 22.64%, which is 12.29 pp lower than in January, 34.93%, which was the highest result of the year in this perspective.

In general, the 12-month cumulative series over 2021 has been falling since January (the exceptions were the change from March to April, when it went from 30.73% to 31.63%; and from May to June, when it went from 30.18% to 30.96%), which expresses the high basis of comparison.  By way of illustration, the price change between September 2019 and September 2020 was 32.51%.

The products with the greatest influence on the result of the activity in the month are all exportable, the exchange rate (which suffered a depreciation of 0.5% in the month, and of 2.6% in the year, and an appreciation in 12 months of 2.2%) is a factor that partly explains the increases.  The cold and frost compromised some crops, such as sugarcane, which explains why two of its derivatives are in the highlights of increases.  In the case of meat, in the domestic market, given income restrictions, there has been, over time, demand pressure on " frozen poultry and giblets", which replaces beef.

This sector is the one with the biggest contribution in the calculation of the index (23.90%) and registered the third biggest change in comparison with the previous month.  It was also the second influence both in M/M-1 (0.58 pp, in 0.40%) and in the year (3.96 pp, in 24.08%) and the first in M/M-12 (5.76 pp, at 30.59%).

Petroleum refining and alcohol products: compared to August, in September, prices in the sector were 1.82% higher; as a result, the cumulative index in the year reached 49.69% and, in 12 months, 64.33% .  It is worth noting that in the first quarter the price change was 37.72%, in the second it was 1.44% and in the third 7.15%, that is, the price increases were more intense in the first quarter and now in the third.

The sector's prices were, among all industrial activities, the ones that grew the most, both in the perspective of the cumulative index in the year and in the M/M-12 perspective.  On the other hand, it was the fourth major influence on M/M-1 (0.18 pp, in 0.40%), the first in the cumulative index in the year (4.19 pp, in 24.08%) and the second in the cumulative index in 12 months (5.20 pp, in 30.59%).

Other chemicals: the chemical industry recorded in September a  the highest positive price change of the IPP, 4.41%, with a cumulative change of 43.38% in the year and of 51.83% in the last 12 months.

These results are mainly linked with the international prices, including the price change of several raw material, either imported or not, like naphtha, for instance. In addition, the economic activity is heated along with chains that demand chemical products.

The sector had the second largest price change in the month and in the year, in addition to the third place in the cumulative index in 12 months.  Furthermore, in terms of influence, it was the third largest in the month (0.39 pp in 0.40% of the general index) and repeated the position both in the year (3.48 pp in 24.08%) and in the cumulative in 12 months (4.13 pp in 30.59%).

Regarding the four products that most influenced the result (2.65 pp in 4.41%), there was price increase in all of them, with two in the group of inorganic chemicals, "NPK-based fertilizers or manure" and "manure or mineral or chemical fertilizers, phosphate-based”.  The other products were “unsaturated propene (propylene)” and “herbicides for agricultural purposes”.  The other 35 products surveyed in this activity also had, on the average, a positive result with 1.76 pp of the final change of the activity.

Basic metals: comparison of prices in September against August showed a change of 1,21%, 15th positive rate in a row in this activity.  With this result, the sector of basic metals accrued a change of 42.13% in the year and, in the last 12 months, of 55.18%. Another highlight is that between December 2018 (base for the current sample) and September 2021, the prices of the sector had a cumulative increase of 87.76%, only second to the cumulative increase of mining and quarrying industry, 132.99%, activity that includes iron ore, main raw material for steel.

“The results of the sector are linked with the behavior of the groups of steel products and non-ferrous material (copper, gold and aluminum), whose prices behave differently. The former group is affected by the prices of iron ore and by the change of the dollar against the real, as well as by the recomposition of stocks in the consumption chain. Concerning the second group – non-ferrous materials –, their prices used to be linked with the quotations in the international stock markets.

This sector of basic metals registered the third biggest change in the cumulative index of the year and the second in 12 months, it also is the fourth biggest influence on the cumulative result in the year (2.75 pp in 24.08%) and in the cumulative rate in 12 month with 3.48 pp in 30.59%.

The four products accounting for the main influence on the month represented 0.83 pp of 1.21%, with 0.38 pp for the other 20 analyzed products.  Three of the four products that most influenced the results in the month had positive changes, and two of them are not steel products, a fact explained by the drop in iron ore prices in the market.