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In September, IBGE expects harvest of 250.9 million tonnes for 2021

October 07, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 13, 2021 11h28 AM

In September, the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2021 dropped once again over the previous month (-0.3% or 752.5 thousand tonnes). As a result, the harvest should reach 250.9 million tonnes, standing 1.3% below (less 3.2 million tonnes) the record production of 2020 (254.1 million tonnes).

SEPTEMBER´s estimate for 2021 250.9 million tonnes
SEPTEMBER 2021/AUGUST 2021 change (-0.3%) 752.5 thousand tonnes
2021 harvest/2020 harvest change (-1.3%) 3.2 million tonnes

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) unveiled that the area to be harvested was 68.3 million hectares, 4.4% larger (2.9 million hectares) than the area harvested in 2020. The area to be harvested rose 0.1% (55.7 thousand hectares) in relation to the previous month.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which altogether represented 92.4% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.7% of the area to be harvested. The area for corn production increased by 6.1% (1.4% in the first crop and 7.8% in the second one) and the area for soybeans, by 4.8% against 2020. However, the area for upland cotton production dropped 16.0% and that for rice remained stable.

In the output, soybeans rose 10.3% and should hit a record of 134.0 million tonnes, and paddy rice rose 4.4% and should add up to 11.5 million tonnes. A drop of 17.5% was estimated for upland cotton and of 16.4% for corn, being -3.2% in the first crop and -21.0% in the second one.

The September´s report for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2021 reached 250.9 million tonnes and a harvested area of 68.3 million hectares. The area to be harvested rose 4.4% (2.9 million hectares) in relation to 2020. It rose 55.7 thousand hectares (0.1%) in relation to the forecast in the previous month.

The South (5.4%), Northeast (1.7%) and North (1.3%) regions rose their estimates this month. The first one should produce 77.1 million tonnes (30.7% of the national overall); the second one, 23.0 million tonnes (9.2% of the total); and the third one, 11.1 million tonnes (4.4% of the total).

On the other hand, a new decline (-5.8%) was expected in the Central-West, the biggest producer (45.7% of the national overall). It should complete 2021 with a harvest of 114.7 million tonnes. With a production estimated at 25.1 million tonnes (10.0% of the national overall), the Southeast also declined (-2.6%).

Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 28.5%, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (15.0%), Paraná (13.3%), Goiás (9.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.7%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%). These states, together, accounted for 79.8% of the national overall. The positive changes in the production estimates over the previous month took place in Mato Grosso (609.8 thousand tonnes), Rio Grande do Sul (176.3 thousand tonnes), Rondônia (32.9 thousand tonnes), Pernambuco (578 tonnes), the Federal District (210 tonnes), Espírito Santo (208 tonnes) and Rio Grande do Norte (11 tonnes).

The negative changes took place in Paraná (-597.7 thousand tonnes), São Paulo (-515.2 thousand tonnes), Goiás (-269.2 thousand tonnes), Minas Gerais (-169.6 thousand tonnes), Alagoas (-8.7 thousand tonnes), Maranhão (-4.4 thousand tonnes), Ceará (-3.1 thousand tonnes), Bahia (-3 thousand tonnes), Sergipe (-1.5 thousand tonnes), Acre (-85 tonnes) and Amapá (-50 tonnes).

Highlights in the estimate of September 2021 against August

In September, the following production estimates stood out against August: beans - 3rd crop (6.0% or 33.8 thousand tonnes), tomatoes (4.3% or 163.6 thousand tonnes), coffea canephora (1.7% or 15.4 thousand tonnes), beans - 2nd crop (1.6% or 15.0 thousand tonnes), corn - 1st crop (0.9% or 232.1 thousand tonnes), beans - 1st crop (0.3% or 3.0 thousand tonnes), soybeans (0.2% or 268.7 thousand tonnes) and barley (0.1% or 657 tonnes).

On the other hand, decreases are expected in the output of sorghum (-6.0% or 151.4 thousand tonnes), corn 2nd crop (-5.2% or 3.4 million tonnes), beans - 1st crop (-4.8% or 58.2 thousand tonnes), beans - 2nd crop (-3.1% or 30,5 thousand tonnes), of wheat (-2.3% or 189.4 thousand tonnes), oat  (-11% or 11.4 thousand tonnes), coffea arabica (-0.4% or 8.5 thousand tonnes) and coffea canephora (-0.0% or 172 tonnes).

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The ninth estimate for the output of cotton was of 5.9 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.0% over August. The average yield was estimated at 4,251 kilos per hectare, a decline of 1.0%. The are planted with cotton reached 1.4 million hectares in Brazil.

In the state of Mato Grosso, the main national producer, with 68.5% of the total to be produced, the expected production was of 4.0 million tonnes, a decline of 1.5% in relation to the previous month. Bahia, the second biggest producer (21.7% of the total), estimated to produce 1.3 million tonnes. Reductions of 15.9% in the planted area and of 17.5% in the production estimate were registered in relation to 2020, as well as a decline of 1.8% for the average yield.

Mato Grosso reduced the planted area by 15.6%, as well as the estimated output by 18.1% and the average yield by 3.1%. Bahia should have an output 14.0% smaller than that of 2020. The planted area added up to 268.0 thousand hectares, being 14.9% smaller than that of 2020.

COFFEE BEANS - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee for 2021 was of 2.9 million tonnes, or 48.1 million 60-kg sacks, with a decrease of  1.6% against the previous month and a decrease of 22.5% against the previous year. The average yield, of 1,582 kg/ha, in turn, fell 1.4% against the previous month, with a decrease of 19.6% in the annual comparison.

For coffea arabica, the estimated production was of 2.0 million tonnes, a drop of 3.1% over the previous month and a decline of 31.8% over the previous year. Minas Gerais was the biggest producer of coffea arabica, and was expected to represent 68.7%of the Brazilian output.

In 2021, the harvest of arabica will be of negative biennial bearings, which should result in a significant retraction of the output.

Concerning coffea canephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated output was 935.1 thousand tonnes or 15.6 million 60-kg sacks, increases of 8.0% in relation to 2020. The average yield, of 2,378 kg/ha, grew 7.7% in the same comparison. In Espírito Santo, the main Brazilian producer, with nearly 66.1% of the total output in 2021, the estimate is 618.3 thousand tonnes, or 10.3 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 10.0% against the previous year.

SUGARCANE – The Brazilian output was of 628.5 million tonnes, representing a reduction of 3.8% in relation to the previous month. The average yield of the sugarcane crops decreased 3.2%, hitting 71,828 kg/ha in the national average. In relation to 2020, the estimated production also retreated 7.3%, with a drop of 2.3% in the area to be harvested and of 5.1% in the average yield.

São Paulo remained the biggest national producer with 313.6 million tonnes, accounting for 49.9% of the national production. In Paraná, the estimated production retreated 1.7% this month. The Northeast Region accounted for 8.6% of the national output and represented an increase of 1.4% in relation to the August´s estimate and of 3.1% (724.9 thousand tonnes) in relation to the previous year. The Federation Units that recorded the biggest growth over the previous month were Alagoas (4.3%) and Bahia (1.4%).

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated production of wheat was 8.1 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.6% against the previous month and an increase of 31.0% against 2020, and the average yield is expected to increase 14.6% to 2,996 kg/ha. The planted area increased 14.3%. The South Region was expected to account for 90.7% of the national wheat production in 2021.

The output estimate of oat was 1.0 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.1% against August and a growth of 10.5% against the previous year. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, the biggest producers, have estimated harvests of 791.6 thousand tonnes and of 164.5 thousand tonnes, respectively. In Santa Catarina, output estimate was 35.1 thousand tonnes, an increase of 41.5% against the previous year.  The South Region concentrated 97.0% of the Brazilian output of this cereal.

For barley, the estimate stayed at 481.5 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.1% in relation to the previous month and a growth of 27.1% in relation to 2020. The biggest producers of this cereal were Paraná, with 354.4 thousand tonnes, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 111.4 thousand tonnes, which, together, represented 96.7% of the national overall.

BEANS(seed) - The output estimate of the three crops of beans was of 2.7 million tonnes, a rise of 1.9% over August. The production declined 5.6% in the year.

The first crop of beans, which represented 42.9% of the total, was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% over August. The harvested area retreated 0.3% and the average yield should be 0.5% higher. Rondônia (-3.6%) and Pernambuco (-2.2%) stood out negatively, whereas Minas Gerais (2.2%) stood out positively. In relation to 2020, estimates fell by 10.7% (output); 6.3% (average yield) and 4.8% (area to be harvested).

The second crop of beans was estimated at 962.1 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.6% over the August´s estimate. Ceará (-9.1%) and Sergipe (-9.6%) stood out negatively. Pernambuco (6.3%) and Mato Grosso (9.7%) stood out positively. Concerning the annual change, the estimate was of a drop of 4.5% in relation to 2020.

For the third crop of beans, the output estimate was of 594.5 thousand tonnes, a rise of 6.0% over August. Paraná (9.1%) and Mato Grosso (29.7%) were the major positive highlights. The production estimate increased 4.2% in relation to 2020.

ORANGES - The estimated output was 13.6 million tonnes, a drop of 7.2% over the previous month, with a reduction of 7.2% in the average yield. As the biggest producer and responsible for 70.7% of the national overall, the production in São Paulo was estimated at 9.6 million tonnes, a drop of 9.9% in the productivity of orange farms. In relation to 2020, the decline of the Brazilian output of oranges was of 13.8% and the production in São Paulo dropped 18.9%.

CORN GRAIN - With an area to be harvested of 19.4 million hectares and an average yield of 4,451 kg/ha, against the last monthly data, output estimate declined by 1.1%, and reached 86.3 million tonnes.  In relation to the previous year, the output was expected to be 16.4% smaller, though the planted area (6.9%) and the area to be harvested (6.1%) recorded increases. The average yield dropped 21.3%.

In the first crop of corn, the estimated output was of 25.7 million tonnes, an increase of 0.9% over the previous month. The output estimate was revised in some states of the Southeast, especially in Minas Gerais (1.6%) and São Paulo (5.9%). Concerning the annual change, the output estimate was 3.2% lower than in 2020. Although the planted area increased by 2.5%, the average yield dropped 4.6%.

For the second crop, the estimated production was of 60.5 million tonnes, representing a retreat of 2.0% over the previous month (1.2 million tonnes). The estimates reduced in several Federation Units, especially in Pernambuco (-3.1%), Alagoas (-10.0%), Minas Gerais (-10.1%), São Paulo (-24.1%) and Paraná (-6.7%).

In relation to the previous year, the estimate for the second crop of corn was 21.0% smaller, despite the increase of 8.5% in the planted area. The average yield should decline 26.8%, mainly due to the lack of rainfall during the crop cycle.

SOYBEANS (grain) - The production of soybeans was of 134.0 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2% over the previous month and another record for this grain. Having completed the harvest, the crop developed fairly in most states, in spite of the delay in the planting, which impacted corn - 2nd crop.

With few reassessments in September, the rises of 0.9% in the output of Mato Grosso (or more 303,471 tonnes) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.1%) stood out. The major reductions occurred in São Paulo (-1.0%), Rondônia (-0.5%) and Maranhão (-0.1%).

Compared with 2020, the production estimate grew 10.3% or more 12.5 million tonnes. With a strong recovery, the output in Rio Grande do Sul should grow 80.8% over 2020.