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GDP stays at -0.1% in Q2 2021

September 01, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 03, 2021 03h36 PM

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the Gross Domestic Product - GDP remained stable (-0.1%) in the second quarter of 2021 compared with the first quarter of 2021. The GDP grew 12.4% compared with the same quarter of 2020. The GDP accrued a rise of 6.4% in the first semester. The cumulative GDP increased 1.8% in the last four quarters ended in June 2021.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the Gross Domestic Product - GDP remained stable (-0.1%) in the second quarter of 2021 compared with the first quarter of 2021. The GDP grew 12.4% compared with the same quarter of 2020. The GDP accrued a rise of 6.4% in the first semester. The cumulative GDP increased 1.8% in the last four quarters ended in June 2021.

Comparison period Indicators
GDP AGRIC INDUS SERV GFCF CONS. HHOLDS CONS. GOV
Quarter / immediately previous  quarter (with seasonal adjustment) -0.1% -2.8% -0.2% 0.7% -3.6% 0.0% 0.7%
Quarter / same quarter a year ago (without seasonal adjustment) 12.4% 1.3% 17.8% 10.8% 32.9% 10.8% 4.2%
Cumulative in four quarters / same period a year ago (without seasonal adjustment) 1.8% 2.0% 4.7% 0.5% 12.8% -0.4% -2.6%
Cumulative in the year / same period a year ago (without seasonal adjustment) 6.4% 3.3% 10.0% 4.7% 24.3% 4.2% -0.4%
Current values in Q2 (R$) 2.1 trillion 180.0 billion 410.4 billion 1.3 trillion 390.2 billion 1.3 trillion 408.8 billion
Investment rate (GFCF/GDP) in Q2 2021 = 18.2%
Savings rate (SAVING/GDP) in Q2 2021 = 20.9%

GDP remains stable (-0.1%) compared with the immediately previous quarter

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the GDP changed -0.1% in the comparison between the second quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2021. The major drop was in Agriculture (-2.8%), followed by Industry (-0.2%). On the other hand, Services grew 0.7%.

Among the industrial activities, the performance was leveraged by the drops of 2.2% in Manufacturing industries and of 0.9% in the activity of Electricity and gas, water, sewage and waste management activities. These drops offset the rise of 5.3% in Mining and quarrying industries and of 2.7% in Construction.

Main results of the GDP at market prices
from Q2 2020 to Q2 2021 (%)
Rates (%) 2020.II 2020.III 2020.IV 2021.I 2021.II
Cumulative in the year / same period a year ago -5.6 -5.0 -4.1 1.0 6.4
Last four quarters / four immediately previous quarters -2.1 -3.4 -4.1 -3.8 1.8
Quarter / same quarter a year ago -10.9 -3.9 -1.1 1.0 12.4
Quarter / immediately previous  quarter (with seasonal adjustment) -9.0 7.7 3.1 1.2 -0.1
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais 

In Services, the positive figures came from: Information and communication (5.6%), Other services activities (2.1%),Trade (0.5%), Real estate activities (0.4%), Financial activities, insurance and related services (0.3%) and Transportation, storage and mailing (0.1%). Administration, defense, public health and education, and social security (0.0%) remained stable.

Under the point of view of expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-3.6%) dropped, Household Consumption Expenditure (0.0%) remained stable and Government Consumption Expenditure (0.7%) grew in relation to the immediately previous quarter.

In the foreign sector, Exports of Goods and Services grew 9.4%, while Imports of Goods and Services retreated 0.6% over the first quarter of 2021.

GDP grows 12.4% against Q2 2020

When compared with the same period last year, the GDP increased 12.4% in the second quarter of 2021. The Value Added at basic prices recorded a positive change of 11.7% and Product Taxes Net of Subsidies advanced 16.8%.

Agriculture grew 1.3% over the same period of 2020. That result can be mainly explained by the positive performance of some agricultural products with a relevant harvest in the second quarter, like soybeans (9.8%) and rice (4.1%). In contrast, the estimates for the annual output of coffee (-21.0%), cotton (-16.6%) and corn (-11.3%) retreated. The estimates for Livestock and Forestry pointed out to a positive contribution to Agriculture this quarter.

Industry rose 17.8%. In this context, the activity of Manufacturing industries registered the best result with a rise of 25.8%, mainly influenced by the advance in the manufacture of motor vehicles, other transportation equipment, machinery and equipment and basic metals.

The rise in the activity of Construction (13.1%) was supported by the increase in the number of persons employed in this sector, as well as in the production of its typical inputs. That activity recorded a positive figure after dropping for five quarters in a row.

Mining and quarrying industries recorded a positive change of 7.0%, as a result of the increase in the extraction of ferrous minerals, since the extraction of petroleum and gas increased less in the period.

The activity of Electricity and gas, water, sewage and waste management activities rose 6.7%, due to the upturn of the economy as a whole, since the second quarter of 2020 peaked the restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. That movement was able to offset even the less favorable tariff flags.

The Services sector advanced 10.8% compared with the same period a year ago. The best results were registered in Transportation, storage and mailing (25.3%) and Trade (20.9%). The other activities also recorded positive figures: Other services activities (16.1%), Information and communication (15.6%), Administration, defense, public health and education, and social security (4.1%), Real estate activities (3.5%) and Financial activities, insurance and related services (1.4%).

Household consumption expenditure grew 10.8%, explained by the base effect, since it was against the quarter with most effects of the pandemic on the economy, as well as by the government aid programs and the increase of credit to physical persons. On the other hand, the interest rates increased and, even with the increase in employment in the economy, the wage bill, negatively affected by inflation, dropped in relation to the second quarter of 2020.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation advanced 32.9% in the second quarter of 2021, explained by the positive figures in the domestic output and in the imports of capital goods, as well as in Construction. Government Consumption Expenditure rose 4.2% in relation to the second quarter of 2020.

In the foreign sector, Exports of Goods and Services increased 14.1%, whereas Imports of Goods and Services expanded 20.2% in the second quarter of 2021. In exports, the growth was mainly explained by the increase in agricultural products, car industry, machinery and equipment and non-metallic minerals On the other hand, imports grew mainly due to the increase in the acquisition of motor vehicles, machinery and equipment, basic metals and petroleum refining.

GDP grows 1.8% in the cumulative index in four quarters

The cumulative GDP in the four quarters ending in June 2021 rose 1.8% in relation to the four immediately previous quarters.  This rate resulted from the advances of 1.6% in the Value Added at basic prices and of 2.8% in the Product Taxes Net of Subsidies. The result of Value Added was due to the following performances: Agriculture (2.0%), Industry (4.7%) and Services (0.5%).

The industrial activities with positive results were Manufacturing industries (8.1%) and Electricity and gas, water, sewage and waste management activities (3.5%). Conversely, Construction (-0.7%) and Mining and quarrying industries (-0.2%) retracted.

In Services, Trade (5.7%), Information and communication (5.4%), Financial activities, insurance and related services (3.9%), Real estate activities (3.4%) and Transportation, storage and mailing (1.5%) rose. The drops were: Other services activities (-4.9%) and Administration, defense, public health and education, and social security (-2.5%).

In the analysis of the expenditure, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (12.8%) recorded a positive change for the second quarter in a row. On the other hand, Household Consumption Expenditure (-0.4%) and Government Consumption Expenditure (-2.6%) recorded a negative change.

In the foreign sector, Exports of goods and services rose 2.4% and Imports of goods and services dropped 1.7%.

GDP rises 6.4% in the first semester

The GDP grew 6.4% in the first semester of 2021 in relation to the same period of 2020. In this basis for comparison, Agriculture (3.3%), Industry (10.0%) and Services (4.7%) performed positively.

Investment rate is 18.2% in Q2

In the second quarter of 2021, the investment rate was 18.2% of the GDP, above that reported in the same period last year (15.1%). Also in the second quarter of 2021, the savings rate was 20.9% (against 15.7% in the same period of 2020).

Net Borrowing reached R$81.4 billion against R$35.7 billion in the second quarter of 2020. The increase in Net Borrowing was mainly explained by the increase of R$55.1 billion in the foreign balance of goods and services.