In June, IBGE harvest estimate for 2021 is 258,5 million metric tons

July 08, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 16, 2021 03h09 AM

In June, the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2021 must hit a record 258.5 million metric tons, 1.7% above (4.4 million metric tons) that of 2020 (254.1 million metric tons), but with a decrease of 1.6% (-4.2 million metric tons) in relation to previous data (262.8 million metric tons). The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) indicates that the area to be harvested is of 68.1 million hectares, being 4.0% (2.6 million hectares) bigger than in 2020 and 0.1% (85.9 thousand hectares) bigger than in the previous month.

Estimate for JUNE 2021 258.5 million metric tons
Variação JUNE 2021/MAY 2021 (-1,6%) – 4.2 million metric tons
Change - 2021 harvest/ 2020 harvest (1,7%) 4.4 million metric tons

Rice, corn and soybean are the three main products in this group and, altogether, account for 92.6% of the output estimate and for 87.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2020, there were increases of 6.7% in the area for corn (2.5% in the first crop and 8.2% in the second one) and in the area for soybeans. On the other hand, there were decreases of 16.1% in the area for upland cotton and of 0.1% in the area for rice.

A record soybean production is expected, amounting to 133.3 million metric tons, with an increase of 9.7% against 2020. Production of rice was estimated at 111.2 million metric tons, with an increase of 1.5%. The output of corn fell by 8.0% (a decrease by 3.0 % in the first crop and of 9.7% in the second), amounting to 95.0 million metric tons. The output estimate for upland cotton also fell (-19.9%), and totaled 5.7 million metric tons.

Results of June for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds2021 reached 258.5 million metric tons and a harvested area of 68.1 million metric tons. In relation to 2020, the area to be harvested increased by 4.0% (2.6 million hectares). Against the previous month, there was an increase of 85.9 thousand hectares (0.1%).

The South (10.2%), Southeast (3.4%), North (0.2%) and Northeast (5.3%) recorded decrease in estimates. The South is expected to produce 80.5 million metric tons (31.1% of the total), the Southeast, 26.6 million metric tons (10.3% of the total), the Northeast, 23.8 million metric tons (9.2% of the total) and the North, 11.0 million metric tons (4.3% of the total). The Central West estimate dropped 4.3% in its estimate and must produce 116.6 million metric tons in 2021(45.1%) of the total in the country.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso leads, with a participation of 27.4%, followed by Paraná (14.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (14.2%), Goiás (9.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.2%) and Minas Gerais (6.3%), which, together, account for more than 80.0% of the national overall. The positive changes in production estimates took place in Maranhão (27.2 thousand metric tons), in Acre (7.1 thousand metric tons), in Santa Catarina (3.7 thousand metric tons) and in Rio de Janeiro (35 metric tons). The decreases occurred in Goiás (-2.0 million metric tons), Mato Grosso do Sul (-852.2 thousand metric tons), Minas Gerais (-654.5 thousand metric tons), Paraná (-480.6 thousand metric tons) and Rio Grande do Norte (- 10.9 thousand metric tons).

Highlights in the June 2021 estimate against May

In June, the highlights were positive changes in the following output estimates in relation to May: soybeans (0.3% or 345.3 thousand metric tons), barley (1.9% or 8.5 thousand metric tons), wheat (0.1% or 4.5 thousand metric tons) and oat (0.4% or 3.7 thousand metric tons).

On the other hand, estimates are expected in the production of corn 2nd crop (-5.6% or 4.1 million metric tons), sorghum (-7.0% or 198.4 thousand metric tons), rice (-1.2% or 141.8 thousand metric tons), beans 2nd crop (-5.7% or 58.6 thousand metric tons), corn 1st crop (-0.2% or 41.1 thousand metric tons), beans 3rd crop (-4.3% or 25.0 thousand metric tons) and beans 1st crop (-1.4% or 17.6 thousand metric tons).

PADDY RICE– The output estimate was 11.2 million metric months, a decrease of 1.2% in relation to the previous one, due to the reduced productivity of crops. That amount is enough to supply the Brazilian domestic market, making it possible to have more balance in the prices of the cereal, which reached historic levels in 2020, driven by the increase of domestic consumption and the expansion of exports due to the exchange rate incentives. Against 2020, national production increased by 1.5%. The Monthly decrease resulted from reevaluation of information in Rondônia, which reduced the rice output estimate by 62.2%. Rio Grande do Sul, responsible for 71.1% of the national output, kept the previous estimates.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated wheat output was 7.9 million metric tons, with increases of 0.1% in relation to the previous month and of 26.8% in relation to the previous year, with a possible increase of average year by 19.7%. The South Region accounts for 89.9% of the wheat output in the country in 2021. In Paraná, the main producer of wheat, with a contribution of 49.1% to the national overall, the output was estimated as 3.9 million metric tons, with an increase of 24.1% in the year. Rio Grande do Sul, second main producer, with a participation of 38.9% of the national overall, is expected to produce 3.1 million metric tons, an increase of 45.6% against the previous year. The output estimate of Santa Catarina was 150.0 thousand metric tons, with a decrease of 13.5% in comparison with 2020.

The output estimate of oat was 1 025.6 thousand metric tons, an increase of 0.4% in relation to May and of 10.9% in relation to the previous year. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are the main ones, with estimates of 783.1 thousand metric tons and 169.5 thousand metric tons, respectively. In Santa Catarina, the output estimate reached 36.2 thousand metric ton, an increase of 46.3% in relation to 2020. The South Region concentrates 96.4% of the Brazilian output of this cereal.

As for barley , the estimated production was 448.5 thousand metric tons, an increase of 1.9% agaist the previous month and of 18.4% against the previous year. The biggest producers of this cereal are Paraná, with 327.2 thousand metric tons, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 107.6.0 thousand metric tons, with outputs that amount to 96.9% of the national total.

BEAN(seed) – The sixth output estimate national production of beans was of 2.8 million metric tons, representing a retreat of 3.5% against the previous month. The area to be harvested reduced 0.9% and the average yield, 1.6%. The most significant decreases were those of Ceará (-3.3%), Rio Grande do Norte (-21.3%), Minas Gerais (-7.6%), Paraná (-6.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-17.4%) and Federal District (-26.4%), with an increase of estimate only in Goiás (1.9%).

In terms of the annual change, the estimated area to be harvested increased by 1.0%. Regarding production, there was a drop of 3.5%, whereas the estimate for average yield was reduced by 4.5%.

Beans 1st crop was estimated at 1.3 million tmetric tons, a decline of 1.4% against the May estimate. The area to be harvested decreased by 0.6% and average yield was estimated as 0.8% smaller. There were decreases in the output of Ceará (-3.7%), Rio Grande do Norte (-21.7%), Minas Gerais (-2.5%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-0.9%), Goiás (-2.1%) and Federal District (-10.0%).

The 2nd crop of beans was estimated at 1.0 million metric tons, a retreat of 7.2% over the April´s estimate, as well as of 1.5% in the estimate of the area to be harvested and of 5.8% in the average yield. There were decreases in output estimate in Ceará (5.5%) and Minas Gerais (-3.8%), Paraná (-12.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-18.3%), Goiás (-16.8%), Maranhão (-0.8%) and Federal District (-84.0%). The second harvest represents 34.9% of the total beans produced in the country.

As for the annual change, the output estimate of beans 2nd crop fell by 3.4% from 2020. As for average yield the estimated decrease was of 8.9% and, for harvested area, of 6.1%.

For the 3rd crop, the output estimate recorded a decrease of 4.3% agains the May figure.The estimate for the area to be harvested increased 3.9%. Among the nine states with information for beans 3rd crop, five kept the estimates of the previous survey. Drops in estimates took place in Minas Gerais (-14.7%), Paraná (-4.8%) and Federal District (-40.5%). Only Goiás had an increase of 8.3% in output estimate. The area to be harvested reduced 1.7% and the average yield, 1.3%.

CORN (grain) – With an area to be harvested of 19.5 million hectares, and an average yield of 4 878 kg/ha, against the latest result, output estimate dropped by 4.2%, amounting to 95.0 million metric tons. In relation to the previous year, output must be 8.0% smaller, although there are increases of 6.5% in planted area and of 6.7% in the area to be harvested average yield decreased by 13.7%.

For the 1st crop, the estimated production was of 25.8 million metris tons, a decrease of 0.2% against the previous month. There were increases in output estimate, mainly in Acre (6.8% or 4 943 metric tons), in Mato Grosso do Sul (1.4% or 2 002 metric tons) and in Goiás (3.5% or 52 816 metric tons) and decreases in the Federal District (-38.5% or 37 800 metric tons), Paraná (-0.4% or 12 800 metric tons), Minas Gerais (-0.5% or 23 362 metric tons), Rio Grande do Norte (-25.5% or 7 086 metric tons) and Ceará (-3.2% or 19 168 metric tons).

Concerning the annual change, the output estimate was 3.0% lower than in 2020. Although planted area grew by 2.1%, average yield decreased 5.4%.

In 2nd crop, the output estimate was of 69.2 million metric tons, a decrease of 5.6% against the previous month or 4 113 425 metric tons less. There were declines in output estimates in Paraná (-4.6% or 476 900 metric tons), Minas Gerais (-14.2% or 485 870 metric tons), Mato Grosso do Sul (-15.8% or 1 165 600 metric tons), Goiás (-19.8% or 1 871 655 metric tons ) and Federal District (-37.7% or 113 400 metric tons). Against the previous year, the estimated output of corn 2nd crop was 9.7% smaller, despite the increase of planted are of 8.2%.

SOYBEAN (grain) – The output estimate for soybean was 133.3 million metric tons, an increase of 0.3% emagainst the previous year. In relation to the previous year, the production estimate was 9.7% higher, the equivalent to 11.7 million metric tons. Completed in most Federation Units, the crop developed fairly, in spite of the delay in the planting time. The biggest reevaluations in June were those in Mato Grosso do Sul (2.5%), Federal District (8.3%), Ceará (51.5%) and Acre (10.0%).

Against 2020, the output estimate increased by 9.7%, 11.7 million metric tons more. The planted area increased 4.4%, the equivalent to 1.6 million hectares; productivity grew 5.1%, which represented an increase of 168 kg/ha (2.7 sacks).

Despite the recovery of harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, which grew by 79.4%, getting back to normal levels, some important states recorded a decrease in the average yield of crops due to climate problems, for example, Mato Grosso (-3.4%), Paraná (-6.7%) and Goiás (-2.4%). In the region that encompasses the states of Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia (MATOPIBA), Tocantins was the only state recording a decrease in output (-6.3%); the others recorded significant increases, such as Piauí (12.2%), Bahia (12.6% and Maranhão (4.4%).

SORGHUM (grain) – The output estimate was 2.6 million metric tons, a decrease of 7.0% agains the previous month. The estimated area to be harvested also recorded a decrease of 4.8%, like the average yield, 2.3% smaller. The Central West region, main producer of this grain, with 53.8% of the national output, has its estimate reduced by 7.8%, as a result of losses in Goiás (-11.0%), biggest producer of the cereal and responsible for 44.8% of the national overall, despite the increase estimated in Mato Grosso do Sul (46.3%) and in the Federal District (19.4%).

Output estimate also dropped 9.2% in Minas Gerais, second main producer and responsible for 29.4% of the national overall. The estimated output of sorghum, in June, was 4.1% smaller than in the previous year, due to the decrease of 6.0% in the area to be harvested, mainly, once yield was 2.0% bigger.

TOMATO – The Brazilian output of tomato was estimated in 3.8 million metric tons, a decrease of 4.1% in relation to the previous month. This estimate follows the drops of 0.9% for the estimate of average yield and of 3.2% for planted area. The biggest negative changes in output estimates were those of Goiás (-13.8% or 155 881 metric tons), in Rio Grande do Norte (-2.7%), in Paraná (-2.6%) and in Mato Grosso do Sul (-15.6%). São Paulo is the biggest Brazilian producer of tomato, with an output of 1 024.2 thousand metric tons (27.1% of the total), having surpassed Goiás, which is expected to produce 977.3 thousand metric tons or 25.9% of the national total.