In May, IBGE expects harvest of 262.8 million tonnes for 2021

June 10, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 15, 2021 03h45 PM

In May, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2021 declined in relation to the previous month (-0.6% or 1.7 million tonnes), though it still represented a record in the time series and should add up to 262.8 million tonnes, 3.4% higher than that obtained in 2020 (254.1 million tonnes), an increase of 8.6 million tonnes. In addition, the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA pointed out that the area to be harvested was 68.0 million hectares, a rise of 3.9% over 2020 (more 2.5 million hectares). The estimate of the area to be harvested rose 119.7 thousand hectares (0.2%) in relation to the previous month.

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which altogether represented 92.6% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.7% of the area to be harvested. The area for corn increased 6.2% (increases of 2.7% in the first crop and of 7.5% in the second one) and the area for soybeans, 4.1% in relation to 2020. However, the area for upland cotton declined 16.0% and for rice, 0.1%.

It was expected another record for soybeans: 132.9 million tonnes, a rise of 9.4% over 2020. In this same comparison, a rise of 2.8% was expected for paddy rice, which should reach 11.4 million tonnes. On the other hand, a decline of 19.7% was estimated for upland cotton (-19.7%), with an output of 5.7 million tonnes, and of 3.9% for corn (-3.9%), with an output of 99.2 million tonnes, being 25.8 million tonnes in the first crop (-2.8%) and 73.3 million tonnes in the second one (-4.3%).

MAY estimate for 2021 262.8 million tonnes
MAY 2021/ APRIL 2021 change (-0.6%) 1.7 million tonnes
2021 harvest / 2020 harvest change (3.4%) 8.6 million tonnes

The South (10.8%), Southeast (6.0%), Northeast (5.3%) and North (1.4%) regions registered a rise in their estimates. The first one should produce 81.0 million tonnes (30.8% of the national overall); the second one, 27.3 million tonnes (10.4% of the total); the third one, 23.8 million tonnes (9.1% of the total) and the fourth one, 11.1 million tonnes (4.2%). On the other hand, the Central-West, which is the major producer (45.5% of the Brazilian output) had its estimate reduced by 1.8% and should harvest 119.5 million tonnes.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led the national output of grains with a share of 26.9%, followed by Paraná (14.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.9%), Goiás (9.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.4%) and Minas Gerais (6.5%). The positive changes in the production estimates over the previous month took place in Rio Grande do Sul (1.3 million tonnes), Bahia (410.6 thousand tonnes), Ceará (50.2 thousand tonnes), Minas Gerais (8.8 thousand tonnes), Acre (2.2 thousand tonnes), Rio Grande do Norte (110 tonnes), Espírito Santo (102 tonnes) and Rio de Janeiro (47 tonnes).

The dropping estimates were reported in Paraná (-2.0 million tonnes), Mato Grosso (-1.2 million tonnes), Goiás (-177.4 thousand tonnes), Maranhão (-125.1 thousand tonnes), Sergipe (-23.4 thousand tonnes), Pernambuco (-17.8 thousand tonnes) and Paraíba (-8.8 thousand tonnes).

Highlights of the May 2021 estimate in relation to April

In May, the following positive changes in the output estimates stood out over April: wheat (7.2% or 527.2 thousand tonnes), cashew nuts (7.2% or 8.3 thousand tonnes), coffea arabica (6.0% or 114.0 thousand tonnes), oat (4.0% or 39.2 thousand tonnes), beans - 3rd crop (2.7% or 15.5 thousand tonnes), rice (2.4% or 270.0 thousand tonnes), barley (1.9% or 8.2 thousand tonnes), coffea canephora (0.9% or 7.9 thousand tonnes), soybeans (0.7% or 982.5 thousand tonnes) and corn - 1st crop (0.3% or 73.0 thousand tonnes).

In contrast, declines were expected in the output of beans - 2nd crop (-7.2% or 80.3 thousand tonnes), corn - 2nd crop (-4.4% or 3.4 million tonnes), cotton (-3.4% or 202.4 thousand tonnes), cacao (-1.5% or 4.0 thousand tonnes) and beans - 1st crop (-0.3% or 4.0 thousand tonnes).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The fifth production estimate of cotton reached 5.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.4% over the April´s estimate. The estimate of the area to be harvested also reduced (-4.5%). As most cotton areas are planted after the harvest of soybeans, which delayed due to the lack of rainfall, some producers reduced the planted area of cotton, which is less profitable.

The output estimate in Mato Grosso, the largest producer in Brazil (67.9% of the total), was of 3.9 million tonnes, 5.1% lower than the last estimate. The planted area also reduced 5.7%, whereas the estimate for the average yield increased 0.6%. Bahia, the second largest producer in Brazil (21.6% of the total), estimated to produce 1.2 million tonnes, an increase of 2.5% over the April´s estimate.

PADDY RICE - The estimated output of rice was of 11.4 million tonnes, an increase of 2.4% over the previous month, due to the growing productivity of the crops. That production will be sufficient to supply the Brazilian domestic market, allowing more balanced prices of the cereal, which hit a historical level in 2020. Compared with the previous year, the national output was 2.8% higher.

In Rio Grande do Sul, responsible for 70.2% of the national production, the monthly estimate was reassessed, with an increase of 3.4% in the output.

CACAO NUTS - The estimated production stayed at 269.1 thousand tonnes, a decline of 1.5% over the previous month. Pará and Bahia, the largest producers of this product, should account for 93.0% of the national output this year. In Pará, the estimated production stayed at 144.2 thousand tonnes. In Bahia, the estimated production was of 106.0 thousand tonnes, a drop of 3.6% over the previous month, due to the reassessment in the planted area and in the performance of the crops, which decreased 2.7%. In relation to the previous year, the Brazilian production of cacao was 4.1% lower, with declines of 0.3% in Pará and of 10.1% in Bahia.

COFFEE BEANS - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee for 2021 was of 2.9 million tonnes, a growth of 4.3% over the previous month and a decrease of 21.0% over the previous year. The planted area declined 3.2% and the area to be harvested reduced 3.4% in the year.

For coffea arabica, the estimated production was of 2.0 million tonnes, a growth of 6.0% over the previous month and a decline of 29.3% over the previous year. In 2021, the harvest of arabica will be of negative biennial bearings, which should result in a significant retraction of the output. Minas Gerais was the largest producer and should account for 69.8% of the Brazilian output in 2021, with a harvest estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, a growth of 7.9% over the previous month and a decline of 30.9% over 2020.

For coffea canephora, more known as nonillion, the estimated production was of 919.8 thousand tonnes, a growth of 0.9% over the previous month and of 6.3% over 2020. In Espírito Santo, the largest Brazilian producer, with nearly 67.6% of the total output in 2021, the estimate concentrated at 621.3 thousand tonnes, a growth of 10.6% over the previous year. In Bahia, the output was estimated at 126.2 thousand tonnes, a decline of 0.5% in relation to the production obtained in 2020.

CASHEW NUTS - The estimated production grew 7.2% over the previous month, due to the higher expectation of output in Ceará, which increased its output by 13.7% due to the increase in the performance of the crops, which should hit 252 kilos per hectare, a growth of 13.5%. Even with that improvement of the production in Ceará, the national output should stay at 123.2 thousand tonnes, a decline of 11.2% compared with 2020. The largest Brazilian producers were Ceará (55.7%), Piauí (20.4%) and Rio Grande do Norte (13.9%), being that CE and RN estimated declines in their output of 19.4% and 1.8%, respectively. Conversely, Piauí estimated a growth (8.7%).

WINTER CEREALS - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley.

The estimated production of wheat was of 7.9 million tonnes, a growth of 7.9% over the previous month and of 26.8% over the previous year, and the average yield should increase 19.5%. The South Region should account for 89.3% of the national wheat production in 2021. In Paraná, the biggest producer (48.5% of the national total), the output was estimated at 3.8 million tonnes, a growth of 22.4% in the year. Rio Grande do Sul, the second biggest producer (38.9% of the total), should harvest 3.1 million tonnes, a growth of 19.3% over the previous month and of 45.6% over the previous year.

The production estimate of oat was of 1.0 million tonnes, a growth of 4.0% in relation to the previous year. For barley, the estimated production was 440.0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.9% over the previous month and of 16.1% over the last year.

BEAN SEED - The fifth estimate of the national output of beans in 2021 was of 2.9 million tonnes, being 2.3% lower than that of April and very close to the 2020 harvest. The area to be harvested reduced 0.8% and the average yield, 1.6%. The major producers were Paraná (19.7%), Minas Gerais (20.0%) and Goiás (11.1%).

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.3% in relation to the April´s estimate. The area to be harvested also reduced (0.8%). The negative highlights were the productions in Paraíba (-9.1%),  Pernambuco (-10.7%) and Mato Grosso (-32.8%). The estimated output in Ceará (4.2%) increased. In relation to the previous year, the estimates for production reduced 2.5%, average yield, 1.4% and area to be harvested, 1.1%.

The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.0 million tonnes, a retreat of 7.2% over the April´s estimate, as well as of 1.5% in the estimate of the area to be harvested and of 5.8% in the average yield. Ceará, with an increase of 7.7%, and Bahia, with an increase of 3.1% in their output estimates, were the positive highlights. The negative highlights were Paraná (-21.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-2.8%) and Paraíba (-5.7%).

For the third crop of beans, the production estimate was of 578.4 thousand tonnes, an increase of 2.7% over the April´s forecast.. The estimate for the area to be harvested increased 2.7%. Minas Gerais was the positive highlight, with an increase of 9.0%, and Mato Grosso was the negative highlight, with a retraction of 2.4% over April.

CORN GRAIN - With an area to be harvested of 19.4 million, the production estimate declined 3.2% in relation to the last information and 3.9% over 2020, having added up to 99.2 million tonnes.

In the first crop of corn, the estimated output was of 25.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% over the previous month. The production estimate increased mainly in Minas Gerais (1.8%), Ceará (6.0%) and Bahia (2.7%), and declined in Pernambuco (-21.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-1.8%). Concerning the annual change, the output estimate was 2.8% lower than in 2020.

For the second crop, the estimated production was of 73.3 million tonnes, representing a retreat of 4.4% over the previous month. Paraná (-15.8%), Mato Grosso (-3.5%), Goiás (-1.8%) and Maranhão (-11.9%) recorded the major drops. On the other hand, Bahia (12.7%) stood out with a rise. In relation to the previous year, the estimate for the second harvest was 4.3% lower.

SOYBEANS (grain) - The production was estimated at 132.9 million tonnes, an increase of 0.7% over the last month. In relation to the previous year, the production estimate was 9.4% higher, the equivalent to 11.4 million tonnes. The planted area increased 4.2%, the equivalent to 1.5 million hectares; the productivity grew 5.1%, which represented an increase of 166 kg/ha (2.7 sacks).

Completed in most Federation Units, the crop developed fairly, in spite of the delay in the planting time. The major reassessments in May were carried out in Rio Grande do Sul (3.1%), Bahia (3.9%) and Ceará (88.2%). It is worth highlighting that Rio Grande do Sul recovered its production, which was very affected by the drought in 2020, resulting in a growth of nearly 80.0% in annual terms and hitting a record of 20.3 million tonnes. This state became the second biggest national producer of soybeans, surpassing Paraná, where the crops were affected the drought, which reduced its output by 4.7% over 2020.