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In April, IBGE expects harvest of 264.5 million tonnes for 2021

May 12, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: May 17, 2021 05h01 PM

The April´s estimate for the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2021 remained a record: 264.5 million tonnes, 4.1% above (10.3 million tonnes) that obtained in 2020 (254.1 million tonnes), though declining 0.2% (-409.9 thousand tonnes) in relation to the previous estimate (264.9 million tonnes). The area to be harvested was 67.9 million hectares, being 3.7% (2.4 million hectares) larger that that of 2020 and 0.2% (135.5 thousand hectares) larger than that forecast in the previous month.

APRIL´s estimate for 2021 264.5 million tonnes
APRIL 2021/MARCH 2021 change (-0.2%) -409.9 thousand tonnes
2021 harvest / 2020 harvest change (4.1%) 10.3 million tonnes

Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, and, together, represented 92.9% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.8% of the area to be harvested. Compared with 2020, the area for corn increased 5.9% (2.6% in the first crop and 7.1% in the second one); soybeans, 4.1% and rice, 0.1%.

On the other hand, the area for cotton declined 12.0% and rice, 0.1%.

A record was expected in the output of soybeans (131.9 million tonnes), a rise of 8.6% compared with 2020. The production estimate of rice was 11.1 million tonnes, a rise of 0.3%. The output of corn declined 0.7% (drop of 3.1% in the first crop and rise of 0.1% in the second one), adding up to 102.5 million tonnes. The production estimate of upland cotton also dropped (-16.8%), adding up to 5.9 million tonnes.

The April information for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2021 reached 264.5 million tonnes and a harvested area of 67.9 million hectares. The area to be harvested grew 3.7% (2.4 million hectares) in relation to 2020. Compared with the forecast in the previous month, it rose by 135.5 thousand hectares (0.2%).

The South (11.7%), Southeast (6.0%), North (1.3%) and Northeast (4.1%) regions increased their estimates. The South should produce 81.6 million tonnes (30.9% of the total country), the Southeast, 27.3 million tonnes (10.3% of the total), the Northeast, 23.5 million (8.9% of the total) and the North, 11.1 million (4.2% of the total). On the other hand, the Central-West registered a drop of 0.7% in its estimate and it should produce 120.9 million tonnes in 2021 (45.7%) of the total country.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led with a share of 27.2%, followed by Paraná (15.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.4%), Goiás (9.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.3%) and Minas Gerais (6.4%), which, altogether, represented 80.4% of the total country. The rises over the previous month took place in São Paulo (623.6 thousand tonnes), Goiás (237.9 thousand tonnes), Ceará (116.4 thousand tonnes), Bahia (51.2 thousand tonnes), Pernambuco (17.4 thousand tonnes), Acre (8.8 thousand tonnes), Minas Gerais (5.5 thousand tonnes), Alagoas (3.1 thousand tonnes), Espírito Santo (621 tonnes) and Rio de Janeiro (11 tonnes). The drops were recorded in Paraná (-1.4 million tonnes), Piauí (-13.2 thousand tonnes), Amapá (-13.1 thousand tonnes), Maranhão (-1.6 thousand tonnes) and Rio Grande do Norte (-1.6 thousand tonnes).

Highlights in the April 2021 estimate in relation to March

In April, the following positive changes in the production estimates stood out over March: potatoes - 3rd crop (23.1% or 153.0 thousand tonnes), potatoes - 1st crop (3.9% or 70.4 thousand tonnes), beans - 1st crop (2.2% or 27.8 thousand tonnes), corn - 1st crop (1.3% or 339.0 thousand tonnes), wheat (1.2% or 84.0 thousand tonnes), barley (0.8% or 3.4 thousand tonnes), coffea canephora (0.4% or 4.1 thousand tonnes) and soybeans (0.1% or 97.0 thousand tonnes).

On the other hand, declines were expected in the output of beans - 2nd crop (-8.2% or 98.7 thousand tonnes), oranges (-8.1% or 1.3 million tonnes), sugarcane (-2.1% or 14.0 million tonnes), potatoes - 2nd crop (-1.3% or 16.0 thousand tonnes), oat (-1.2% or 12.1 thousand tonnes), corn - 2nd crop (-1.1% or 875.5 thousand tonnes), coffea arabica (-1.0% or 20.0 thousand tonnes) and beans - 3rd crop (-0.0% or 100 tonnes).

POTATOES (tuber) - The fourth estimate of the total output of potatoes posted an increase of 5.7% over March. Considering the three crops, Brazil should produce 3.9 million tonnes of potatoes. The planted area and the area to be harvested grew 2.4%, whereas the average yield increased 3.2%. Bahia, which increased the production estimate of potatoes by 85.8% over the last month, stood out. The total production estimate of potatoes also increased (5.0%) over 2020. The major contributors for this result were Bahia (93.5%), Paraná (4.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (38.9%). In contrast, the following states registered a reduction in the output estimates: Minas Gerais (-4.3%) São Paulo (-13.6%), Santa Catarina (-14.4%) and Goiás (-3.1%).

With an estimated production of 1.9 million tonnes, the first crop, which should contribute with 48.0% of the total amount of potatoes to be produced in the year, increased its production estimate by 3.9% over the previous month. This result was influenced by the production estimates in the states of Bahia (increase of 84.0%) and São Paulo (4.8%). Compared with the previous year, the production estimate increased 15.1%, with positive highlights in Bahia (89.7%), Minas Gerais (8.5%), Espírito Santo (14.0%), São Paulo (19.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (41.1%). The negative highlights were the states of Santa Catarina (-16.1%) and Paraná (-1.1%).

Having added up to 1.2 million tonnes, the production estimate in the second crop was 1.3% lower than that in March. The positive highlight was Bahia, with an increase of 73.7% in the estimated output. The states that decreased the production estimates were São Paulo (-24.5%) and Paraná (-2.6%). Compared with the previous year, the estimate was 10.2% higher, following the increase of 6.5% in the estimate of the average yield and of 3.4% in the planted area, being Bahia (79.2%), Paraná (14.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (28.2%) the Federation Units that influenced this result.

The third crop was assessed at 816.4 thousand tonnes. The production estimate increased 23.1% over March, following the rise of 16.9% in the planted area and of 5.2% in the average yield. The estimated output in Bahia (102.1%) and São Paulo (63.8%) increased, being these two the positive highlights. The production estimate reduced 17.2% over 2020, following the decrease in the planted area (-24.9%). This result was influenced by the output estimates in São Paulo (-39.6%) and Minas Gerais (-22.9%).

COFFEE (bean) - Considering the two species, arabica and canephora, the Brazilian production estimate of coffee for 2021 was 2.8 million tonnes, a decline of 0.6% over the previous month and of 24.3% over the previous year. The average yield (1,574 kg/ha) fell 0.3% over the previous month and 20.0% in the annual comparison. The planted area declined 5.1% and the area to be harvested, 5.3%.

For coffea arabica, the estimated output was of 1.9 million tonnes or 31.8 million 60-kg sacks, a decline of 1.0% over the previous month and of 33.2% over the previous year. In 2020, the Brazilian harvest of coffea arabica was of biennial positive bearings, being the biggest production ever harvested in Brazil and a record in the IBGE´s time series. In 2021, the harvest of arabica will be of biennial negative bearings, which should cause an expressive retraction in the output. In addition, the hot and dry weather in most of 2020, mainly in the second semester when the flowers were opening, could have limited the development of the crops, resulting in lighter fruits.

Concerning coffea canephora, better known as conillon, the output estimate was of 911.8 thousand tonnes or 15.2 million 60-kg sacks, growing 0.4% in relation to the previous month and 5.4% in relation to 2020. The average yield, of 2,310 kg/ha, grew 4.6% in this last comparison. In Espírito Santo, the biggest Brazilian producer (68.1% of the overall production in 2021), the estimate was 621.2 thousand tonnes or 10.4 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 0.7% over the previous month. The output estimate grew 10.5% over 2020.

SUGARCANE - The Brazilian production estimate was of 654.7 million tonnes, representing a reduction of 2.1% over the previous month. The average yield of the sugarcane crops decreased 1.2%, reaching 74,230 kg/ha in the national average. The estimated production also reduced 3.4% over 2020, with a drop of 1.6% in the area to be harvested and of 1.9% in the average yield. The dry weather last year and in the summer this year jeopardized the development of the sugarcane crops.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) - The major winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimated output of wheat was of 7.3 million tonnes, a growth of 18.3% over the previous year, and the average yield should increase 17.2%.

The South Region should account for 88.7% of the national wheat production in 2021. As the biggest producer of wheat, accounting for 51.7% of the national output, Paraná´s production was estimated at 3.8 million tonnes, a growth of 21.8% in the year. As the second biggest producer and accounting for 35.0% of the national output, Rio Grande do Sul should produce 2.6 million tonnes, a growth of 22.1% over the previous year.

The production estimate of oatwas of 982.8 thousand tonnes, a growth of 6.2% in relation to the previous year. The unfavorable weather also compromised the production of oat in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná in 2020. These states are the biggest Brazilian producers of this cereal, with estimates of 740.5 thousand tonnes and 174.6 thousand tonnes, respectively. In Santa Catarina, the estimated output was at 32.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 31.6% over the previous year. The South Region concentrated 96.4% of the Brazilian production of this cereal.

For barley, the estimated production was of 431.8 thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.8% over the previous month and a growth of 14.0% over the previous year. The biggest producers of this cereal were Paraná, with 307.0 thousand tonnes, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 111.1 thousand tonnes, which, altogether, represented 96.8% of the national output. The output in São Paulo and Santa Catarina were estimated at 12.7 thousand tonnes and 1.0 thousand tonnes, respectively.

BEANS (seed) - The fourth estimate for the national output of beans for 2021 was of 3.0 million tonnes.  This estimate was 2.3% lower than that in March. The area to be harvested was reduced by 0.5% and the average yield decreased 1.8%. In this review, the Federation Units with the greatest participation in the production estimate were Paraná (22.1%), Minas Gerais (18.9%) and Goiás (10.8%). Concerning the annual change, the estimate for the area to be harvested and for the production increased 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively, and the estimate for the average yield reduced 0.4%.

Estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, the first crop increased 2.2% over March; the average yield was also 3.3% higher, whereas the planted area declined 1.9%. Rio Grande do Norte stood out negatively, with a decrease of 11.3%. The output estimates of Ceará (19.4%) and Pernambuco (60.2%) increased, following the increasing estimates of the average yield, which were 21.4% and 39.1%, respectively. The first crop of the product accounted for 43.3% of the total output of beans in grain. The estimated production reduced 2.2%, the estimated average yield reduced 1.9% and the estimated area to be harvested reduced 0.3% over 2020. The positive highlights were: Piauí (12.3%), Ceará (12.9%), Paraíba (37.4%), Pernambuco (19.2%), São Paulo (8.6%), Minas Gerais (6.6%) and Goiás (13.3%). The negative highlights were registered in Rio Grande do Norte (-21.5%), Bahia (-24.2%), Paraná (-18.8%) and the Federal District (-29.6%).

The second crop was estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a retreat of 8.2% over March, with a slight increase of 0.1% in the forecast of the area to be harvested and a reduction of 8.2% in the estimate of the average yield. Ceará stood out positively, with an increase of 8.2% in its estimated output. Paraná (-19.8%) and Goiás (-3.7%) were the negative highlights. The second crop represented 37.6% of the total beans produced in Brazil.

The estimate for this harvest pointed out to an increase of 10.4% over 2020. For the average yield, an increase of 2.0% was expected and,  for the area to be harvested, a growth of 8.2%. The Federal District (-74.4%) and Bahia (-37.6%) stood out negatively. Tocantins (32.4%), Paraíba (47.3%), Pernambuco (32.2%), Alagoas (101.4%), Paraná (46.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (42.7%) stood out positively. The largest production estimates for this harvest came from the states of Paraná (35.4%), Minas Gerais (15.3%) and Mato Grosso (10.5%).

For the third crop, the estimate was of 563 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 100 tonnes over the March´s forecast. The area to be harvested retreated by 100 hectares. Most of the producing Federation Units maintained the estimates of the last survey, being this slight difference caused by Paraná´s figures (4.5%). Compared with the previous year, the output reduced 1.3%; the area to be harvested declined 0.4% and the average yield dropped 0.9%. Minas Gerais (-3.2%) and Mato Grosso (-10.8%) were the negative highlights. São Paulo (4.4%) and Goiás (6.5%) were the positive highlights.

ORANGES - The estimated production was at 14.6 million tonnes, a drop of 8.1% over the previous month and a reduction of 7.8% in the average yield of the crops. Accounting for 73.0% of the national output, São Paulo, the major state in the citrus sector, estimated a production of 10.7 million tonnes or 261.1 million 40.8-kg boxes, a reduction of 10.0% in the productivity of the orange crops. Compared with 2020, the decline in the Brazilian output of oranges was of 7.3%, and the production in São Paulo fell 10.0%.

CORN (grain) - With an area to be harvested of 19.3 million hectares and an average yield of 5,301 kg/ha in relation to the last monthly information, the estimated production retreated 0.5%, adding up to 102.5 million tonnes. The output should be 0.7% smaller in relation to the previous year, though the planted area grew 5.6% and the area to be harvested, 5.9%. The average yield declined 6.2%.

In the first crop, the estimated production was of 25.8 million tonnes, a growth of 1.3% over the previous month, the equivalent to 339.0 thousand tonnes. The output estimates in Ceará (19.2% or 90.2 thousand tonnes), Paraná (1.5% or 47.3 thousand tonnes) and São Paulo (13.4% or 254.9 thousand tonnes) increased. Declines in the production estimates were reported in Pernambuco (-12.8% or 9.5 thousand tonnes), Piauí (-1.7% or 32.7 thousand tonnes) and Goiás (-0.9% or 14.1 thousand tonnes).

Concerning the annual change, the estimated output was 3.1% smaller than in 2020. Altogether, Brazil expected to harvest 25.8 million tonnes. Although the planted area was growing 1.8%, the average yield declined 5.6%. The output in Minas Gerais (1.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (5.2%), Bahia (2.8%), Maranhão (8.8%), Pará (4.3%), Mato Grosso (4.3%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (10.3%) increased and declined in Paraná (-12.5%), Santa Catarina (-18.5%), Piauí (-5.7%), São Paulo (-0.8%), Goiás (-0.1%), Ceará (-11.8%), Tocantins (-11.9%) and in the Federal District (-21.3%).

For the second crop the estimated production was of 76.7 million tonnes, representing a retreat of 1.1% over the previous month or less 875.5 thousand tonnes. In Paraná, the estimated output was changed to a decline of 8.6% or 1.2 million tonnes. The LSPA pointed out increases in the production estimates in Acre (47.3% or 7.2 thousand tonnes), Piauí (26.7% or 104.3 thousand tonnes), Pernambuco (39.1% or 15.0 thousand tonnes), Alagoas (5.1% or 3.4 thousand tonnes) and São Paulo (6,2% or 149.2 thousand tonnes). Compared with the previous year, the production estimate of corn - 2nd crop was 0.1% higher, as well as the planted area, which increased 7.0%.

SOYBEANS (grain) - The estimated production was of 131.9 million tonnes, a rise of 0.1% over the previous month. The planted area, of 38.6 million hectares, was 0.1% smaller. Compared with the previous year, the output estimate was 8.6% higher, the equivalent to 10.4 million tonnes.

The rises of 2.0% in Goiás, 4.9% in São Paulo and 8.8% in Acre stood out in April. The most significant declines were in Paraná (-1.5%), associated with the lower productivity of the crops that were impacted by the droughts in the beginning of the planting and by excessive rainfall in the harvesting, and in Piauí (3.0%), due to the negative adjustments of 2.1% in the planted area and of 0.9% in the average yield. In Paraná, the output was 4.7% lower than the 2020 harvest, whereas it was 12.2% higher than in the previous harvest in Piauí, even with the monthly reduction.

Still comparing with the previous year, the estimated production was 8.6% higher, the equivalent to 10.4 million tonnes. The planted area increased 4.1%, the equivalent to 1.5 million hectares, the productivity should grow 4.4%, which represented an increase of 2.4 60-kg sacks per hectare.

The harvest in Rio Grande do Sul was growing 74.0%. In 2020, this state was affected by a severe drought and it manged to harvest, on average, only 1,895 kg/ha against 3,226 kg/ha this year. Nevertheless, some important states recorded a drop in the average yield of the crops due to climate issues, which was the case of Mato Grosso (-3.6%), Paraná (-6.5%) and Goiás (-2.1%). In the MATOPIBA region, only Tocantins reduced the output (-6.3%), while increases were expected in Piauí (12.2%), Bahia (8.4%) and Maranhão (3.7%), reflecting the growth in the planted area, leveraged by the prices of this commodity.