In March, IBGE previews record crop of 264.9 million metric tons for 2021

April 08, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: April 12, 2021 05h00 PM

In March, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2021 reached another record, accounting for 264.9 million metric tons, 4.2% (10.7 million metric tons) above 2020's figure (254.1 million metric tons). 

MARCH estimate for 2021 264.9 million metric tons
MARCH 2021/ FEBRUARY 2021 (0.7%) 1.7 million metric tons
2021 crop/ 2020 crop (4.2%) 10.7 million metric tons

Compared to the previous month, there was an increase of 1.7 million metric tons (0.7%). The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) points out that the area to be harvested is 67.7 million hectares, 3.5% (2.3 million hectares) bigger than that of 2020 and 1.1% (766.4 thousand hectares) above the forecast of the previous month.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products in this group, together account for 92.9% of the estimated production and occupy 87.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2020, there were increases of 5.1% in the corn area (3.0% in the first crop and 5.9% in the second) and 4.1% in the soybean area. But there were declines in the area of upland cotton (-12.0%) and rice (-0.1%).

For soybeans, the production estimate hit a new record: 131.8 million metric tons, an increase of 8.5% compared to 2020. For corn, a 0.2% drop in production is expected (4.4% less in the first crop and 1.3% in the second), reaching 103.0 million metric tons. For rice, 11.1 million metric tons are estimated, an increase of 0.2%, and for cotton, 5.9 million metric tons, a decrease of 16.9%.

In March, the 2021 estimate for the national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was 264.9 million metric tons and a harvested area of ​​67.7 million hectares. In relation to 2020, the area to be harvested grew 3.5% (2.3 million hectares). In comparison with the forecast in the previous month, there was an increase of 766.4 thousand hectares (1.1%).

The South (13.7%), Southeast (3.5%), North (1.4%) and Northeast Regions (3.3%) had increased estimates, the first of which should produce 83.1 million metric tons (31.4% of the national total); the second, 26.6 million metric tons (10.1% of the total); the third, 11.1 million metric tons (4.2% of the total) and the fourth, 23.3 million metric tons (8.8% of the total). The Central-West, which is the biggest producer (45.5% of the total), should have a fall of 0.9%.

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso is on top, with a share of 27.2%, followed by Paraná (15.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%), Goiás (9.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.3%) and Minas Gerais (6.4%), which, together, represented 80.7% of the national total. The positive changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Minas Gerais (1.1 million metric tons), in Pará (405.8 thousand metric tons), in Mato Grosso (305 thousand metric tons), in Bahia (271.7 thousand metric tons), in Rio Grande do Sul (168.9 thousand metric tons), in Paraná (152.6 thousand metric tons), in Goiás (137.8 thousand metric tons), in Ceará (132.9 thousand metric tons), in Pernambuco (104.8 thousand metric tons), Maranhão (33.8 thousand metric tons), Acre (2 thousand metric tons) and Espírito Santo (129 metric tons). The negative changes occurred in Santa Catarina (-612.7 thousand metric tons), in Mato Grosso do Sul (-415.0 thousand metric tons), in Amapá (-14.3 thousand metric tons), in the Federal District (-4.2 thousand metric tons) metric tons), in Rio Grande do Norte (-3.9 thousand metric tons) and in Rio de Janeiro (-14 metric tons).

Highlights in March 2021 estimates over February

In March, the positive changes in the following production estimates stood out in relation to February: wheat (8.1% or 541.6 thousand metric tons), barley (7.9% or 31.3 thousand metric tons), beans 2nd crop (5.0% or 57.1 thousand metric tons), grapes (4.9% or 78.4 thousand metric tons), sorghum (2.4% or 67.5 thousand metric tons), beans 3rd crop ( 1.7% or 9.4 thousand metric tons), soybeans (1.1% or 1.4 million metric tons), rice (0.9% or 100.3 thousand metric tons), beans 1st crop (0, 8% or 10,500 metric tons).

On the other hand, declines in the production of 2nd harvest corn are expected (-0.1% or 82.4 thousand metric tons), oat (-0.3% or 2.5 thousand metric tons) and corn 1st crop (-1.5% or 388.8 thousand metric tons).

PADDY RICEThe production estimate was 11.1 million metric tons, an increase of 0.9% in relation to the previous month and 0.2% in relation to 2020. This production should be enough to supply the Brazilian domestic market. For the 2021 crop, the trend is a greater balance in cereal prices, which reached record levels in 2020, leveraged by the increase in domestic consumption, the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the increase in exports, due to the profitable exchange rate.

Rio Grande do Sul is responsible for 70.3% of the national production and should produce 7.7 million metric tons, an increase of 1.3% in relation to the previous month, but a decrease of 0.8% in relation to 2020. On the other hand, Santa Catarina's production, of 1.2 million metric tons, should decline 4.8% in relation to 2020.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oat and barley. The estimate for wheat production was 7.3 million metric tons, an increase of 16.9% in relation to the previous year, with the average yield expected to increase by 17.6%.

The South Region is expected to account for 88.9% of the national wheat production in 2021. In Paraná, the largest producer (51.4% of the total), production was estimated at 3.7 million metric tons, with an increase of 19.7% compared to 2020. Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest producer (35.4% of the total), should produce 2.6 million metric tons, an increase of 22.1%.

The estimated production of oat was 994.9 thousand metric tons, an increase of 7.5% compared to 2020. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, the largest Brazilian cereal producers, estimate to produce 740.5 thousand metric tons and 186.7 thousand metric tons, respectively.

For barley, the estimate is 428.4 thousand metric tons, an increase of 7.9% in relation to the previous month, and growth of 13.1% in relation to the previous year. The largest producers of the cereal are Paraná, with 303.6 thousand metric tons, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 111.1 thousand metric tons, which together represent 96.8% of the national total.

BEAN (seed) – The third estimate of total national bean production was 3.0 million metric tons, 2.6% higher than in February. The area to be harvested, of 2.8 million hectares, increased 2.5% and the average yield, of 1,094 kg/ha, increased 0.1% in the month. Paraná (24.7%), Minas Gerais (18.4%), Goiás (10.6%), Mato Grosso (7.7%), São Paulo (6.9%), Bahia (6.6%) and Ceará (3.9%) have the largest share in this production.

Bean 1st crop, which accounts for 41.4% of production, it was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, an increase of 0.8% compared to the February estimate. The negative highlights are Bahia, with a decrease of 10.5%, Santa Catarina (-10.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-8.9%). There was an increase in the estimates of Ceará (23.7%), Minas Gerais (1.9%), Paraná (0.3%), Maranhão (1.4%), Mato Grosso (12.3%), Federal District (25.0%) and Pernambuco (33.8%).

Bean second crop, which accounts for 40.0% of the total, was estimated at 1.2 million 210.7 thousand metric tons, an increase of 5.0% compared to the February estimate. The positive highlights were Rio Grande do Sul, with an increase of 17.2%, Paraná (6.6%) and Pernambuco (393.6%). Mato Grosso (-8.1%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-7.9%) reduced their estimates. Compared to 2020, the 2nd bean crop is expected to be 20.2% higher.

Regarding bean 3rd crop, the production estimate was 563.0 thousand metric tons, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous forecast. Mato Grosso and Federal District, with an estimated increase of 6.0% and 20.0% in their production, respectively, were responsible for the reviewed figures. In relation to 2020, the estimate was reduced by 1.3%.

CORN (grain) With an area to be harvested of 19.2 million hectares and an average yield of 5,367 kg/ha, in relation to the last monthly information, the production estimate declined by 0.5%, totaling 103.0 million metric tons. In relation to the previous year, production should be 0.2% lower, although there are increases of 4.9% in the area to be planted and 5.1% in the area to be harvested.

In corn 1st crop, production was estimated at 25.4 million metric tons, a decline of 1.5% compared to the previous month. The most intense falls were observed in Goiás (-5.9%), Federal District (-11.1%), Santa Catarina (-20.3%), Rio Grande do Norte (-9.6%), Paraná ( -3.1%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.3%). In relation to 2020, this production is 4.4% lower, as a result of the decrease of 7.1% in the average yield (5,048 kg/ha).

For the 2nd crop, the production estimate was 77.6 million metric tons, a 0.1% decline compared to the previous month and a 1.3% increase compared to 2020. The largest producers of corn 2nd crop in 2021 should be Mato Grosso, with 33.2 million metric tons and 42.7% share in the national total; Paraná, with 13.4 million metric tons and 17.2% share in the national total. Mato Grosso do Sul, with a production of 10.0 million metric tons, and Goiás, with 9.7 million metric tons, should participate with 12.9% and 12.4% of national production, respectively.

SOYBEAN (grain)The estimated soybean production was 131.8 million metric tons, a new record in the IBGE's time series, with an increase of 1.1% (1.4 million metric tons) compared to the previous month and 8.5% (10.3 million metric tons) compared to 2020. In March, production estimates were revised in several states, with a highlight ot the growth of 1.8% in Mato Grosso, of 2.2% in Goiás, 1.2% in Bahia, 2.8% in Minas Gerais, 0.7% in Rio Grande do Sul and 14.2% in Pará. The Rio Grande do Sul crop recovers from the problems caused by the 2020 drought and it is growing 74.0%, returning to normal levels. Some important producers show a drop in the average yield of crops, due to the weather, as in the case of Mato Grosso (-3.6%), Paraná (-5.0%), Goiás (-4.0%) and São Paulo (-5.4%).

SORGHUM (grain)The estimated production was 2.8 million metric tons for the month of March, an increase of 2.4% in relation to the previous month and 3.1% compared to 2020. The Central-West Region, a large producer of this grain, with 54.1% of the national production, had its estimate increased by 0.6%, due to the high in the estimates of Mato Grosso do Sul (15.2%) and Goiás (1.5%) - which is the main Brazilian cereal producer (46.9% of the national total). Minas Gerais, the second largest producer, estimated a production of 892.2 thousand metric tons, an increase of 6.8% (56.7 thousand metric tons) in relation to February.

Several Federation Units increased production estimates compared to 2020, such as: Pará (25.6%), Pernambuco (48.3%), Minas Gerais (3.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (15.2%), Maranhão (12.1%) and Goiás (15.2%). On the other hand, Bahia (-34.8%), Federal District (-38.7%), Piauí (-71.0%) and Ceará (-43.0%) should achieve smaller figures.

GRAPESThe estimated production was 1.7 million metric tons, an increase of 4.9% in relation to the previous month. In Rio Grande do Sul, the largest producer (56.5% of the total), production was revised up by 8.5%, reaching 950.2 thousand metric tons. Good weather conditions and the introduction of more productive varieties favored the crop. In relation to the previous year, there is a recovery in the productivity of vineyards, which provide an 18.7% growth in production. The growth is observed in the main producing units, with a highlight to Rio Grande do Sul (29.2%), Pernambuco (15.3%) and Bahia (8.9%), which represent 82.6% of the national production.