In February 2021, industrial production in Brazil decreased by 0.7% from January, in the seasonally adjusted series, after nine months of positive results in a row and a cumulative result of 41.9%.

From February 2020, there was an increase by 0.4%, sixth consecutive positive rate in this type of comparison. Industry has a cumulative increase of 1.3% in the year and a decrease of 4.2% in the last 12 months, lowest drop for the indicator since April 2020 (-2.9%).

The 0.7% decrease in industry, from January to February 2021, had widespread negative rates, affecting three of the four major economic categories and 14 of the 26 subsectors surveyed.

Production of motor vehicles records decrease following nine months with increases

Among the activities, the main negative results were those of motor vehicles, trailers and trunks (-7.2%) and mining and quarrying industry (-4,7%). The sector of motor vehicles, trailers and trunks interrupted a series of nine positive results, with a cumulative rise of 1,249.2% in the period. Mining and quarrying industry eliminated the advances of December 2020 (3.8%) and January 2021 (1.0%).

Other negative contributions came from: fabric (-9.0%), metal products (-4.1%), leather, travel articles and footwear (-5.9%), miscellaneous (-8.2%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-0.7%), manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-3.5%), pharmaceuticals (-3.4%) and beverages (-1.8%).

On the other hand, among the 12 activities recording increase, other chemicals (3.3%) and machinery and equipment accounte for the main positive impacts in February 2021. The former had its fourth month of production increase, with a cumulative 9.4%, whereas the latter eliminated the 2% decrease recorded in January 2021, having interrupted a series of eight monthly increases in a row. Highlights are the positive results of basic metals (1.4%) and food products (0.5%).

Among the major economic categories, durable consumer goods decreased by 4.6% from January to February, having recorded the lowest negative rate in the month. That is the second month in a row with a decrease in production, and a cumulative decrease of 5.5% in the period.

The segments of capital goods (-1.5%) and of semi-durable and non-durable goods (-0.3%) also had negative rates in February. The former after a series of nine positive results (cumulative expandion of 147.01%) and the second reversing the advance of 1.7% recorded in January. The sector of intermediate goods alone (0.6%) had a positive rate in January 2021, having eliminated part of the 1% decrease recorded in January.

Quarterly moving average changes by 0.2% in quarter ended February

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, quarterly moving average for industry overall recorded a positive change of 0.2% in the quarter ended February 2021 from the previous month, after also recording increase in January 2021 (0.7%), December (0.9%), November (1.6%), October (2,4%), September (4.8%), August (7.0%) and July (9.0%) 2020, when it interrupted the predominatly downward trend initiated November 2019.

Among the major economic categories, capital goods (1.9%) accounted for the main increase and kept the positive behavior observed since July 2020 and a cumulative increase of 89.8% in the period. Semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) and intermediate goods (0.3%) also recorded an increase in February 2021: the former has been on an upward trend since May 2020, and the second has increased for the eighth month in a row, with an increase of 20.8% in the period.

On the other hand, the sector of durable consumer goods (-1.5%) recorded the only negative rate in February 2021 in the index, thus interrupting a sequence of positive results initiated July 2020, a period with a cumulative increase of 188.6%.

Industry changes by 0.4% from February 2020

From the same month in 2020, industry recorded a positive change of 0.4% in February 2021, with rises in two of the four major economic categories, 17 of the 26 subsectors, 52 of the 79 groups and 56.4% of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that February 2021 had the same number of business days as the previous year, 18 days.

Among the activities, the main positive contributions came from machinery and equipment (18.5%), other chemicals (8.1%), metal products (10.6%) and non-metallic minerals (9.7%). Other positive impacts were those of basic metals (5.1%), rubber products and plastic material (7.0%), electric machinery, appliances and material (10.0%), pulp, paper and paper products (4.0%) and fabric (6.3%).

On the other hand, among the nine activities recording decrease, mining and quarrying industry (-6,.%), motor vehicles, trailers and trunks (-6.7%), food products (-4.4%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-3.8%) accounted for the main negative contributions to the average of industry. It is also worth mentioning the negative results of other transportation equipment (-22.5%), beverages (-5.0%) and maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-12.3%).

Among major economic categories, capital goods (16.1%) recorded the most significant increase. That is the sixth positive rate in a row in this type of comparison. The segment of intermediate goods (0.5%) also increased above the average of industry, with the eighth consecutive positive result in this comparioson, but the lowest in this sequence.

On the other hand, the sectors of durable consumer goods (-8.4%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-1.6%) registered negative rates in the month.

Two of the four major economic categories had cumulative increases in 2021

In terms of the cumulative index in the year (January-February), against the same month a year ago, industry increased by 1.3%, with positive results in two of the four major economic categories, besides 17 of the 26 subsectors, 52 of the 79 groups and 58.6% of the 805 products surveyed.

Considering activities, machinery and equipment (18.1%), metal products (13.2%) an other chemicals (6.8%) accounted for the four biggest influences on industry. Other positive contributions came from non-metallic minerals (10.9%), basic metals (6.1%), rubber products and plastic material (8.3%), electric machinery appliances and equipment (9.8%), fabric (13.1%) and pulp, paper and paper products (4.5%).

Among the nine activities recording decrease, the main influences came from food products (-5.1%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-4.0%). Negative results were also recorded by mining and quarrying industry (-3.0%), other transportation equipment (-30.2%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-12.9%), motor vehicles, trailers and trunks (-1.6%), beverages (-2.7%) and computer, electronic and optical products (-4.5%).

Among the major economic categories, the highest cumulative result in the year was that of capital goods (16.6%), but ehe segment of intermediate goods (1.7%) also increased above the average of industry. On the other hand, durable consumer goods (-6.3%) recorded the main decrease among major economic categories, followed by semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-1.1%).