In January, IBGE previews record crop of 262,2 million metric tons for 2021

February 11, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 18, 2021 06h05 PM

In January, the estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2021 is again a record, totaling 262.2 million metric tons, up 3.2% (8.1 million metric tons) in relation to 2020 (254.1 million metric tons) and 1.7 million metric tons (0.7%) compared to the previous forecast. The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) points out that the area to be harvested is 66.8 million hectares, an increase of 2.1% compared to the area harvested in 2020 (1.4 million more hectares) and 149 thousand hectares (0.2%) compared to the previous month.

JANUARY estimate for 2021 262.2 million metric tons
Change - JANUARY 2021/ DECEMBER 2020 (0.7%) 1.7 million metric tons
Crop change  - 2021/ 2020 (3.2%) 8.1 million metric tons

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products of this group, which, together, represent 93.4% of the production estimate and account for 87.8% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2020, there were increases of 3.2% in the corn area (3.0% in the first crop and 3.3% in the second); 3.0% in the soybean area and 0.6% in the rice area, with a drop of 11.3% in the upland cotton area.

Compared to 2020, production increases are expected: of 7.2% for soybeans (totaling 130.3 million metric tons), and of 0.4% for corn (totaling a record of 103.7 million metric tons). Upland cotton and paddy rice declined by 16.5% and 0.6%, with production expected to reach 5.9 and 11.0 million metric tons, respectively.

January information for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2021 reached 262.2 million metric tons and a harvested area of 66.8 million hectares. In relation to 2020, there was an increase of 1.4 million hectares in the area to be harvested (2.1%). Compared to what was estimated in the previous month, the increase was of 149 thousand hectares (0.2%).

Among the regions, South (13.3%) and Northeast (0.4%) had increases in their estimates. On the other hand, Central-West (-1.1%), Southeast (-0.7%) and North (-2.1%) had decreases. The participations of each region are: 45.9% for Central-West, 31.6% for South, 9.8% for Southeast, 8.6% for Northeast and 4.1% for North.

In the production distribution by the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 27.3%, followed by Paraná (15.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.4%), Goiás (9.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.6%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%), which together accounted for 80.7% of the national total. In relation to the previous month, there was increase in the estimates of Paraná (1.2 million metric tons), of Minas Gerais (439.2 thousand metric tons), of Maranhão (156.0 thousand metric tons), of Piauí (46.2 thousand metric tons), of Pará (33.9 thousand metric tons), of Amazonas (4.0 thousand metric tons) and of Tocantins (473 metric tons). In Goiás (-72.7 thousand metric tons), Mato Grosso (-27.2 thousand metric tons), Ceará (-6.9 thousand metric tons), Bahia (-2.0 thousand metric tons) and in Rio de Janeiro (-1.2 thousand metric tons) there was reduction.

Highlights of January 2021 estimate in relation to December

In January, the highlights for the positive changes in the production estimate in relation to December were: bean 2nd crop (21.5% or 206.0 thousand metric tons), potatoes 2nd crop (5.4% or 61.7 thousand metric tons), cacao (4.4% or 11.4 thousand metric tons), corn 2nd crop (2.9% or 2.2 million metric tons), tomatoes (2.0% or 77.9 thousand metric tons), bean 3rd crop (1.6% or 8.9 thousand metric tons), soybean (0.4% or 574.2 thousand metric tons), rice (0.2% or 25.5 thousand metric tons), coffea canephora (0.1% or 1.1 thousand metric tons).

In contrast, decreases are expected in the production of potatoes 1st crop (-0.5% or 8.2 thousand metric tons), corn 1st crop (-0.6% or 170.1 thousand metric tons), bean 1st crop (-0.8% or 10.0 thousand metric tons), sorghum (-1.5% or 40.9 thousand metric tons), upland cotton (-2.8% or 172.0 thousand metric tons) and coffea arabica (-11.1% or 237.0 thousand metric tons).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) – The production estimate was 5.9 million metric tons for the upland cotton in seed, with a decrease of 2.8% in relation to the 3rd forecast (December), and a reduction of 16.5% in relation to 2020. The planted area should reach 1.5 million hectares, a drop of 11.3% and an average yield of 4.077 kg/ha, a reduction of 5.8%.

In the last three years, Brazil has hit records in the production of cotton to meet the international demand. However, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, this demand decreased, influencing on the planting decision of the next crop. Mato Grosso, which produces 68.8% of the national total decreased its production by 16.0% against to 2020, and Bahia, the second biggest producer with 20.3% of the total, reduced it by 18.5%. Comparing to the 3rd forecast, there was a decrease of 3.6% in the production of Mato Grosso.

PADDY RICE – The production estimate was 11.0 million metric tons, an increase of 0.2% in relation to the 3rd forecast and a decline of 0.6% in relation to 2020, with a drop of 1.3% in the average yield. This production should be sufficient for the domestic Brazilian market. For the 2021 crop, the trend is to achieve a higher balance in the cereal prices, which reached historic levels in 2020 leveraged by the increase in the domestic demand due to the coronavirus pandemic and the increase in exports given the exchange rate incentive. In January, there was an increase in the production estimate in Mato Grosso (5.6%), in Piauí (9.3%) and in Goiás (3.2%).

POTATOES (tuber) – The first production estimate of potatoes increased 1.5% in relation to the 3rd forecast (December), but decreased 0.8% in relation 2020. Altogether, the country should produce 3.7 million metric tons, in the area to be harvested of 115.9 thousand hectares. The area to be harvested should increase 0.3% and the average yield, 1.1%.

The 1st crop retreated 0.5% against the 3rd forecast. As a whole, 1.8 million metric tons of potatoes should be harvested, a result influenced by the decrease of 1.7% in the production estimate of Paraná. However, in relation to the previous year, there was an increase of 10.2% in the production estimate.

In the 2nd crop, the production estimate is 5.4% higher than the one in the 3rd forecast, totaling 1.2 million metric tons, with a positive highlight for Paraná, which increased by 20.9% its production estimate. Compared to the previous year, the total estimate of this crop is 11.9% higher.

For the 3rd crop, there was no review in January, remaining with the estimate of the 3rd forecast, that is: 663.4 million metric tons.

CACAO NUT – The production estimate is 269.9 thousand metric tons, a growth of 4.4% in relation to the previous month. The average yield is 4.2% higher. Pará and Bahia, the biggest producers, should account for 94.2% of the national production this year. In relation to the previous year, the Brazilian production of cacao is 3.8% lower, with declines of 0.3% in Pará and of 6.8% in Bahia.

COFFEE (grain) – The estimate of the Brazilian production of coffee to 2021 was 2.7 million metric tons, decline of 27.3% in relation to the previous year, with the average yield, of 1.509 kg/ha, decreasing 23.3%. The planted area decreased 5.0% and the area to be harvested, 5.2%.

Regarding coffea arabica, the estimated production was 1.9 million metric tons, with a decrease of 33.6% in relation to the previous year. In 2020, the Brazilian crop of coffea arabica had a positive bienniality, being the biggest one recorded in the IBGE’s time series. In contrast, 2021 will be a year of negative bienniality, which should result in a significant retraction in the production. Minas Gerais, the biggest producer of coffea arabica (68.9% of the total) estimated its production at 1.3 million metric tons, which represents a decline of 35.9% in relation to the previous year.

Concerning coffea canephora, well known as conillon, the production estimate, of 807.2 thousand metric tons, decreased 6.7% in relation to the previous year. In Espírito Santo, the biggest Brazilian producer (64.5% of the total), the estimate is 520.7 thousand metric tons, with a decline of 7.3% in the production estimate.

BEANS (seed) – The first estimate of the total national production of beans for 2021 was 3.0 million metric tons, being 7.3% higher than that of the 3rd forecast. The area to be harvested increased 0.7% and the average yield 6.6%.

The 1st crop, which accounts for 42.9% of the total production of beans in seed, was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, a decreased of 0.8% against the estimate of the 3rd forecast. Negative highlight for Paraná, with a decrease of 4.9% in the production estimate. In relation to the previous year, there was a reduction of 1.5% in the estimate of the total production of the country for the 1st crop.

The 2nd crop, which represents 38.7% of the total beans produced in the country, was estimated at 1.2 million metric tons, an increase of 21.5% against the estimate of the 3rd forecast and of 15.4% in relation to 2020. Positive highlight to Paraná, with an increase of 74.5% in its production estimate against 2020.

Regarding the 3rd crop, the production estimate was 554.5 thousand metric tons, an increase of 1.6% against the 3rd forecast. The states responsible for this increase in the production estimate were Mato Grosso (8.2%) and Paraná (36.4%). In relation to the previous year, the production estimate decreased 2.8%.

CORN GRAIN – In relation to the last report, the production estimate grew 2.0%, totaling 103.7 million metric tons, a record in the IBGE’s time series. The estimate of the area to be harvested was 18.8 million hectares, with an average yield increase of 1.3%. In relation to the previous year, the production should be 0.4% higher. The 1st crop should participate with 25.3% of the Brazilian production of 2020 and, the 2nd, with 74.7%.

In the 1st crop, the estimate production was 26.3 million metric tons, a decline of 0.6% in relation to the previous month and of 1.2% against 2020. However, for the 2nd crop, the production estimate (77.4 million metric tons) grew 2.9% in relation to the previous month and is 1.0% higher than the previous year.

SOYBEAN (grain) – The production estimate of soybean was 130.3 million metric tons, an increase of 0.4% in relation to the previous month and of 7.2% in relation to 2020, being a new record in the IBGE’s time series. The planted area, of 38.2 million hectares, increased 0.3%.

Despite the delay in planting, due to the lack of rain in the main producing Federation Units, there was even news of replanting in some areas of Mato Grosso; in general, the weather has favored the crops. Mato Grosso is the biggest Brazilian producer of soybeans, with a production expected to reach 34.6 million metric tons in 2021, 26.6% of the national total. Paraná, the second biggest producer, should produce 20.5 million metric tons in 2021 (15.7% of the national crop).

SORGHUM GRAIN – The production estimate was 2.8 million metric tons, a decline of 1.5% in relation to the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested also reported reduction, of 2.3%, but the average yield increased 0.8%. Goiás, the biggest producer (47.4% of the national total), decreased its production estimate by 0.7%. The production estimate of sorghum was 0.1% higher than 2020, with a decline of 2.1% in the planted area and an increase of 2.2% in the average yield. The production should grow 13.1% in Goiás and decrease in Minas Gerais (3.2%) and Bahia (45.1%).

TOMATOES – The national production of tomatoes was estimated at 4.0 million metric tons, with a growth of 2.0% in relation to the last report. With the harvest in progress, Paraná updated its estimates, reaching 215.4 thousand metric tons, an increase of 63.4% in relation to the previous month, but a decline of 12.9% in relation to 2020.

The crop depends on many external inputs, such as fertilizers, pesticides and seeds, which are imported and, with the rise in the dollar, increased the production cost. Despite this, according to the first estimates, the planted area in Brazil should increase 2.2% reaching 56.9 thousand hectares. Goiás and São Paulo are the biggest national producers, responsible, respectively, for 28.9% and 25.6% of the production.