IPCA-15 stays at 0.78% in January

January 26, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 27, 2021 05h04 PM

The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 - IPCA-15 grew 0.78% in January, against 1.06% in December. This was the highest figure for January since 2016, when the index had been 0.92%. In 12 months, the IPCA-15 accrued a rise of 4.30%, above the rate of 4.23% registered in the 12 immediately previous months. In January 2020, the rate had been 0.71%.

January 2021 0.78%
December 2020 1.06%
January 2020 0.71%
Cumulative in 12 months 4.30%

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, eight rose in January. The biggest impact (0.32 p.p.) came from Food and beverages (1.53%), which decelerated in relation to the December´s figure (2.00%). It was followed by Housing, which rose 1.44% and contributed with 0.22 p.p. Together, the two groups accounted for nearly 69% of the January´s index. The third highest change came from Wearing apparel items (0.85%), which deflated in the previous month (-0.44%). Other highlights were the rises in Household articles (0.81%) and Health and personal care (0.66%). The other groups remained between the drop of 0.01% in Communication and the rise of 0.40% in Personal expenses.

Group Monthly Change (%)  Impact (p.p.) 
December January December January
Overall Index 1.06 0.78 1.06 0.78
Food and beverages 2.00 1.53 0.42 0.32
Housing 1.50 1.44 0.23 0.22
Household articles 1.35 0.81 0.05 0.03
Wearing apparel -0.44 0.85 -0.02 0.04
Transportation 1.43 0.14 0.29 0.03
Health and personal care 0.03 0.66 0.00 0.09
Personal expenses 0.39 0.40 0.04 0.04
Education 0.34 0.11 0.02 0.01
Communication 0.46 -0.01 0.03 0.00
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços. Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor.

The deceleration in Food and beverages (1.53%) was mainly due to food for consumption at home, which changed from 2.57% in December to 1.73% in January. Meat (1.18%), rice (2.00%) and potatoes (12.34%) registered less intense rises compared with the previous month (when they changed 5.53%, 4.96% and 17.96%, respectively). On the other hand, fruits increased 5.68% against the rise of 3.62% in the previous month and contributed with the biggest impact (0.06 p.p.) among the items surveyed. On the side of the drops, the retreat in the prices of tomatoes (-4.14%) stood out.

Food for consumption away from home followed a reverse movement, accelerating from 0.58% to 1.02% between December and January. While meals (0.81%) registered a change close to the previous month (0.86%), snacks changed from a retreat of 0.11% to a rise of 1.45%, definitively contributing to the result reported in January.

In the group of Housing (1.44%), electricity (3.14%) exerted once again the biggest individual impact (0.14 p.p.) on the IPCA-15, though the change was smaller than that of the previous month (4.08%). After the red tariff flag level 2 in December, the yellow tariff flag came into force in January, which adds R$1.34 to the electricity bills per each 100 kilowatt-hour consumed. The areas changed from 1.18% in Goiânia to 4.68% in Fortaleza. The second biggest impact on the group (0.03 p.p.) came from bottled gas (2.42%), whose prices rose for the eighth month in a row.

Still in Housing, it should be stressed that the positive change in water and sewage fees (0.03%) was due to the adjustment of 2.40% in the fare in Recife (0.83%), in force since January 3.

In Transportation, group with the second biggest weight in the IPCA-15, the deceleration from 1.43% in December to 0.14% in January was mainly due to the drop in the prices of airfare (-20.49%), which had risen 28.31% in the previous month, and to the less intense rise of gasoline, which changed from 2.19% in December to 0.95% in January. The positive changes of new cars (0.92%) and used cars (0.88%) also stood out, as well as transportation through app (8.72%).

In the group of Wearing apparel (0.85%), men´s (1.17%), women´s (0.89%) and children´s wearing apparel (0.63%) rose, as well as footwear and accessories (0.58%). All these items had shown a negative change in December.

In Household articles (0.81%), the major contributions came from household appliances and equipment (1.51%) and furniture (0.69%), with 0.01 p.p. in both cases.

In the group of Health and personal care (0.66%), the rise in the personal hygiene items (1.20%) stood out, contributing with 0.05 p.p. to the month´s result. In addition, the health plan item (0.66%) incorporated, for the first time, the monthly fraction of the annual adjustment, suspended in 2020.

Concerning the regional indexes, all the regions surveyed registered positive changes in January. The highest index was reported in the metropolitan area of Recife (1.45%), especially due to the rise in the prices of gasoline (5.85%) and electricity (4.55%). In contrast, the lowest figure was reported in Brasília (0.33%), leveraged by the drop in the prices of airfare (-29.20%).

Area Regional Weight (%) Monthly Change (%)  Cumulative Change (%) 
December January Year 12 months
Recife 4.71 1.00 1.45 1.45 5.76
Porto Alegre 8.61 1.53 1.11 1.11 4.49
Fortaleza 3.88 1.24 0.97 0.97 5.91
Belo Horizonte 10.04 1.13 0.97 0.97 5.15
Rio de Janeiro 9.77 1.28 0.95 0.95 4.38
Goiânia 4.96 0.93 0.89 0.89 4.42
Belém 4.46 0.91 0.78 0.78 3.79
São Paulo 33.45 0.86 0.63 0.63 4.02
Curitiba 8.09 1.27 0.62 0.62 3.92
Salvador 7.19 1.18 0.38 0.38 3.60
Brasília 4.84 0.65 0.33 0.33 3.11
Brazil 100.00 1.06 0.78 0.78 4.30
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços, Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor.

To calculate the IPCA-15, the prices were collected in the period between December 12, 2020 and January 14, 2021 (reference) and compared with those in force between November 13 and December 11, 2020 (base). The indicator refers to the households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages and comprises the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology used is the same as the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.