IBGE estimates crop of 256.8 million metric tons for 2021, up 1.9% over 2021

December 10, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 14, 2020 07h10 PM

The second forecast of the national production of grains, cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2021 expects a harvest of 256.8 million metric tons, up 1.9% (or 4.708 million more metric tons) compared to 2020.

The October estimate for the 2020 crops reached 252 million metric tons, 4.4% higher than that obtained in 2019 (241.5 million metric tons). The area to be harvested was 65.3 million hectares, an increase of 2.1 million hectares (3.3%) compared to the area harvested in 2019. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products of this group , which, together, represent 92.7% of the production estimate and account for 87.1% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to 2019, there were increases of 3.5% in the corn area (increases of 2.5% in corn 1st crop and 3.9% in corn 2nd crop); 3.5% in the soybean area and 0.6% in the upland cotton area, wheresa the rice area had a 1.1% drop.

As for production, there were increases of 7.1% for soybeans, 7.8% for rice and 0.4% for corn (growth of 2.3% in corn 1st crop and decrease of 0.3 % in corn 2nd crop). The production of herbaceous cotton grew 2.9%..

November estimate for 2020 252 million metric tons
Crop change - 2020 / 2019 4.4% (10.5 million metric tons)
Change - 2020 crop / 2020 - 8th estimate 0.0% (65,5 thousand metric tons)
November estimate for 2021 256.8 million metric tons
Change -  2021 2nd forecast/ 2020 crop 1.9% (4.7 million metric tons)
Change - 2021 2nd forecast/ 2021 1st forecast 1.4% (3.6 million metric tons)

In November 2020, IBGE carried out the second area and production forecast for the 2021 harvest. The Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes in 2021 should add 256.8 million metric tons, an increase of 1.9% in relation to 2020, or 4,708,675 metric tons.

This increase is mainly due to the expected increases in soybean production (5.1% or 6 259 501 metric tons) and corn 1st crop (3.3% or 870 145 metric tons). Decisions are expected in the production of corn 2nd crop (-2.4% or 1 785 968 metric tons), rice (-1.8% or 194 059 metric tons), upland cottonseed (-13.6% or 586 875 metric tons), beans 1sr crop (-0.3% or 3,619 metric tons), bean 2nd crop (-7.0% or 70 471 metric tons) and bean 3rd crop (-5.4% or 30 817 metric tons).

With regard to the expected area, there are positive changes: soybeans (1.8%), corn1st crop (1.9%) and corn 2nd crop (2.4%). The negative changes are the upland cottonseed (-9.1%), paddy rice (-0.8%), beans 1st crop (-0.8%), beans 2nd crop (-2, 0%) and beans 3rd crop (-4.1%).

This 2nd estimate for the crops to be harvested in 2021 is subject to rectification in the next forecast, in January 2021, as well as during the monitoring of the harvests that will be done throughout 2021.

2020 harvest is likely to reach 252 million metric tons, with high of 4.4%

The October estimate for the 2020 harvest reached 252 million metric tons, 4.4% higher than that obtained in 2019 (241.5 million metric tons). For soybeans, a production of 121.6 million metric tons was obtained. For corn, a production of 101.0 million metric tons (26.6 million metric tons of corn 1st crop and 74.4 million metric tons of corn 2nd crop). Rice produced 11.1 million metric tons and cotton, 7.1 million metric tons. 

 

Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Agropecuária, Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola-nov/2020.

In relation to the previous month, there were increases in the production estimates for corn 2nd crop (0.2% or 154 121 metric tons), bean 2nd crop (0.1% or 938 metric tons), soybean (0.0% or 50 159 metric tons).

On the other hand, there were declines in the production of beans 3rd crop (-4.7% or 27 922 metric tons), barley (-2.9% or 11 440 metric tons), wheat (-1.1% or 72 222 metric tons), oats (-0.8% or 7 560 metric tons), beans 1st crop (-0.3% or 4,332 metric tons), and corn 1st crop (-0.1% or 39 611 metric tons).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a 28.9% share, followed by Paraná (16.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (10.5%), Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.0%) and Minas Gerais (6.2%), which, together, represented 79.9% of the national total. With regard to the participation of the Brazilian regions, the following distribution is found: Central-West (47.5%), South (29.0%), Southeast (10.1%), Northeast (9.0%) and North (4.4%).

The positive changes in production estimates, compared to the previous month, occurred in Bahia (150,000 metric tons), in Maranhão (43 342 metric tons), in Mato Grosso (15 475 metric tons), in Pernambuco (12 833 metric tons), in Santa Catarina (8 066 metric tons), Paraíba (2,536 metric tons), Acre (2,145 metric tons), and Espírito Santo (162 metric tons).

Negative changes in production occurred in Paraná (-86,000 metric tons), in Goiás (-35,972 metric tons), in Minas Gerais (-27,826 metric tons), in Ceará (-9,748 metric tons), in Pará (-7,303 metric tons), Piauí (-1 157 metric tons), Rio Grande do Norte (-957 metric tons) and Amapá (29 metric tons).