Regional Accounts: only Sergipe records a drop in GDP in 2018

November 13, 2020 10h00 AM | Last Updated: November 16, 2020 04h56 PM

The Brazilian Gross Domestic Product - GDP grew 1.8% between 2017 and 2018. Among the 27 Federation Units, only Sergipe (-1.8%) dropped.  

Amazonas registered the highest growth (5.1%), followed by Roraima (4.8%) and Mato Grosso (4.3%). Fifteen Federation Units recorded higher growth rates than that of Brazil.

The North Region grew the most (3.4%) and comprised three out of the five states with the highest GDP growth rates. As the only region with a change below the Brazilian average, only the GDP of Espírito Santo (3.0%) grew above the national average in the Southeast (1.4%).

 Between 2017 and 2018, the Southeast increased its share in the Brazilian economy by 0.2 percentage points, from 52.9% to 53.1% in relation to the national GDP. The gain was due to the GDP performances of RJ (0.6 p.p.) and ES (0.3 p.p.), which were the two states that mostly gained share.

Between 2017 and 2018, the following states lost share in the GDP: São Paulo (-0.6 p.p.), Rondônia (-0.1 p.p), Pará (-0.1 p.p.), Pernambuco (-0.1 p.p.), Paraná (-0.1 p.p.), Goiás (-0.1 p.p.) and the Federal District (-0.1 p.p.). SP recorded the highest loss of relative value for the second year in a row.

The Brazilian per capita GDP was R$33,593.82 in 2018. The Federal District remained as the highest per capita GDP in Brazil, with the value of R$85,661.39, nearly 2.5 times the Brazilian per capita GDP. The states of the Southeast, South and Central-West prevailed among the 10 first ranked in the per capita GDP.

This information is available in Regional Accounts 2018, produced in partnership with State Statistical Offices, State Government Secretariats and the Superintendence of the Manaus Free Trade Zone - SUFRAMA.

In 2018, The Brazilian GDP grew 1.8% compared with 2017. Among the Federation Units, Sergipe (-1.8%) was the only negative change. This state reduced its volume over the last four years of the time series and, in 2017, had been one out of three that did not grow, beside Rio de Janeiro and Paraíba.

North, Central-West and South regions grew above the national average

 Having grown 3.4%, the North Region registered the highest change in volume in 2018, mainly influenced by the growth in Amazonas (5.1%), Roraima (4.8%), Rondônia (3.2%) and Pará (3.0%). The Southeast (1.4%) was the only region that changed below the national average of 1.8%, where only Espírito Santo (3.0%) grew above the national average.

The Central-West (2.2%) and South (2.1%) record the second and third highest changes in volume.  The Northeast grew the same as the Brazilian average (1.8%).

Among the 27 Federation Units, the highest changes in volume occurred in Amazonas (5.1%), Roraima (4.8%), Mato Grosso (4.3%), Santa Catarina (3.7%) and Rondônia (3.2%). In Amazonas, Manufacturing industries (8.8%) stood out, leveraged by the manufacture of computer and electronic products.

The rise in Roraima was influenced by the activity of Services, highlighted by Trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, Administration, defense, public education and health and social security, and Real estate activities. In Mato Grosso, Agriculture stood out, including the support to agriculture and to post-harvest, due to the production of soybeans and upland cotton.

GDP under the point of view of production
Federation Units GDP Change in volume of the Gross Value Added (%)
Current value (R$ 1 000 000) Share (%) Relative position of the change
 in volume
Change in volume (%) Total Agriculture Industry Services
Amazonas 100,109.2 1.4 1 5.1 4.9 -1.6 8.2 3.8
Roraima 13,370.0 0.2 2 4.8 5.1 16.1 5.5 4.4
Mato Grosso  137,442.9 2.0 3 4.3 4.3 5.3 4.2 4.0
Santa Catarina 298,227.1 4.3 4 3.7 3.4 -4.3 3.3 4.2
Rondônia 44,914.0 0.6 5 3.2 3.0 1.3 4.8 2.8
Espírito Santo 137,020.1 2.0 6 3.0 2.9 25.3 -4.6 3.8
Pará 161,349.6 2.3 7 3.0 3.1 -5.2 5.8 3.3
Maranhão 98,179.5 1.4 8 2.9 2.6 -1.0 3.0 3.0
Mato Grosso do Sul 106,969.1 1.5 9 2.5 2.5 1.7 5.0 1.9
Bahia 286,239.5 4.1 10 2.3 2.5 15.9 0.8 1.7
Amapá 16,795.2 0.2 11 2.3 2.5 -7.4 4.9 2.4
Piauí 50,378.4 0.7 12 2.1 2.1 19.9 -2.8 0.7
Tocantins 35,666.2 0.5 13 2.1 2.0 1.1 -1.4 2.8
Rio Grande do Sul 457,294.0 6.5 14 2.0 1.7 -7.1 2.8 2.6
Pernambuco 186,352.0 2.7 15 1.9 2.1 16.6 2.4 1.3
15 FUs with average GDP changes higher than in Brazil 2,130,306.7 30.4   2.8 2.7 1.9 3.0 2.8
Brazil 7,004,141.0     1.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 2.1
12 FUs with average GDP changes lower than in Brazil 4,873,834.3 69.6   1.3 1.3 0.7 -0.4 1.8
Rio Grande do Norte 66,969.6 1.0 16 1.8 1.8 17.4 -2.8 2.2
Federal District 254,817.2 3.6 17 1.7 1.5 -6.9 2.7 1.5
São Paulo 2,210,561.9 31.6 18 1.5 1.4 -2.0 0.1 1.9
Ceará 155,903.8 2.2 19 1.4 1.6 8.2 -2.0 1.9
Goiás 195,681.7 2.8 20 1.4 1.5 1.8 -1.2 2.3
Minas Gerais 614,875.8 8.8 21 1.3 1.4 7.6 -0.3 1.5
Paraná 440,029.4 6.3 22 1.2 1.2 -4.1 -1.0 2.8
Paraíba 64,373.6 0.9 23 1.1 1.2 7.8 -2.4 1.5
Alagoas 54,413.0 0.8 24 1.1 1.2 2.2 -0.8 1.3
Rio de Janeiro 758,859.0 10.8 25 1.0 1.0 -1.3 -0.8 1.4
Acre 15,331.1 0.2 26 0.5 0.2 -9.5 -4.0 1.9
Sergipe 42,018.0 0.6 27 -1.8 -1.8 -27.3 -2.6 0.2

Source: IBGE, in partnership with State Statistical Offices, State Government Secretariats and the Superintendence of the Manaus Free Trade Zone - SUFRAMA

In Santa Catarina, Trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and Manufacturing industries were the major leverage factors. In addition to these two activities, Electricity and gas, water, sewage and waste management activities and decontamination positively influenced in Rondônia, due to the increase in the production of hydroelectric energy in Santo Antonio and Jirau plants.

Lowest changes in GDP volume were in SE, AC, RJ, AL and PB  

Between 2017 and 2018, 12 FUs registered lower changes in GDP volume than the national average. The share of these FUs in the Brazilian GDP was 69.6%. The lowest changes occurred in Sergipe (-1.8%), Acre (0.5%), Rio de Janeiro (1.0%), Alagoas (1.1%) and Paraíba (1.1%). 

In Sergipe, the drop was mainly due to Agriculture. The unfavorable climate conditions for agriculture caused the drop in the production of corn. Albeit positive, the change in Acre was also affected by the drop in volume of Agriculture, since the increase in the output of soybeans did not offset the retraction in the output of cassava.

Rio de Janeiro, Alagoas and Paraíba recorded a negative impact due to the performance of Industry, mainly influenced by the drop in the activity of Construction. In Paraíba, Manufacturing industries also influenced. 

 Southeast rises share in GDP and North, Northeast and Central-West reduce

Between 2017 and 2018, the Southeast rose its share in the Brazilian economy by 0.2 percentage points, from 52.9% to 53.1% in relation to the national GDP. The gain in the share was due to the performance of the GDPs of Rio de Janeiro (0.6 p.p.) and Espírito Santo (0.3 p.p.), which were the two states with the highest increase in relative figures. 

The performance of both states was favored by the activity of Mining and quarrying industries, in which the petroleum prices increased. This increase of share offset the drop of 0.6 p.p. in São Paulo. Minas Gerais did not change its share.

The South increased its share by 0.1 p.p. with the contribution of Santa Catarina, where the activity of Services stood out, and of Rio Grande do Sul, leveraged by Professional, scientific and technical, administrative activities and complementary services and by Manufacturing industries. On the other hand, the North, Northeast and Central-West regions lost share (-0.1 p.p. each) in 2018 compared with 2017. 

Between 2017 and 2018, the Federation Units that lost share in GDP were: São Paulo (-0.6 p.p.), Rondônia (-0.1 p.p), Pará (-0.1 p.p.), Pernambuco (-0.1 p.p.), Paraná 
(-0.1 p.p), Goiás (-0.1 p.p.) and the Federal District (-0.1 p.p.). Despite the positive change in volume and nominal increase of the GDP, São Paulo posted the highest loss of relative value for the second year in a row. 

Petroleum prices affected the share of states in Brazilian GDP

The result of São Paulo was caused, to a great extent, by Financial activities, insurance and related services, which lost weight in the economy, due to the reduction in the interest rate. The activities of Construction, Manufacturing industries and Agriculture, including support to agriculture and post-harvest, also influenced.

Despite the increase in volume of 3.0%, Pará lost share in the national GDP, due to the relative performance of Mining and quarrying industries and to the retraction in Agriculture, including support to agriculture and post-harvest, as a result of the reduction in the cassava crops, and in Manufacturing industries.

In spite of the growth in volume above the average, Rondônia also lost share, but in this case due to the increase of costs in the generation of electricity.

Having been one of the highlights of share gain due to the car industry in 2017, Pernambuco lost 0.1 p.p. in 2018, due to the effect of petroleum prices, which raised the costs of the activity of refinement. 

In general, petroleum prices influenced the most the share oscillations in 2018, having benefited the states with higher weights in petroleum extraction, like Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo. Petroleum also contributed to the share loss of other states, like Pernambuco and Paraná, since the refinement industry and segments of the manufacturing industries use petroleum as raw material.

In terms of relative position in the GDP share, no position change was registered between 2017 and 2018. São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais continued to rank in the first three positions, adding up to more than 50% of the national GDP. They were followed by the three states of the South Region (Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina) in the fourth, fifth and sixth positions.

Between 2002 and 2018, Mato Grosso grew nearly 5.1% per year

In the 2002-2018 time series, the GDP in volume of Brazil grew, on average, 2.4% per year. Having recorded an average change of 5.1% per year, Mato Grosso grew the most among the 27 Federation Units. It was followed by Tocantins, which grew 4.9% per year, Roraima, with 4.2% per year, and Piauí, with 4.1% per year.

Due to the soybean cropping, Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Piauí gained national relevance in the sector of Agriculture along the time series. In the case of Mato Grosso, upland cotton cropping and cattle breeding also stood out. Tocantins also advanced in the activities of Trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and Construction. Piauí, on its turn, stood out in Electricity and gas, water and sewage, waste management activities and decontamination, due to the increase in the generation of electricity through wind power.

In Roraima, the rise was due, above all, to the services of Trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and Administration, defense, public education and health, and social security.

In all the states of the North and Central-West, the annual growth rates of the GDP stayed above the national average in the period. In the Northeast, only Bahia (2.2% per year), Rio Grande do Norte (2.0% per year) and Sergipe (2.0% per year) stayed below the average rate of the time series (2.4% per year).

In the Southeast, only Espírito Santo (2.9% per year) posted a change above the national average. Rio de Janeiro (1.4% per year) registered the lowest average growth among the 27 FUs. 

In the South, Santa Catarina ranked in the first position (2.5% per year), whereas the percentage change in Rio Grande do Sul (1.8% per year) was the second lowest one in the national comparison.

In terms of share in the GDP along the time series, the Central-West and Northeast were the regions that recorded the highest relative gains between 2002 and 2018, with advances of 1.3 p.p. and 1.2 p.p., respectively, in relation to the total GDP. In contrast, the Southeast was the only region to lose share. Even with the reduction of 4.3 p.p., the Southeast maintained as the region with the highest share and accounted for 53.1% of the GDP in 2018 (57.4% in 2002). 

Having grown 0.7 p.p. between 2002 and 2018, Mato Grosso was the state that mostly gained share along the time series, which resulted in an advance of two relative position in the ranking of GDP share (from the 15th to the 13th position). São Paulo (-3.3 p.p.) and Rio de Janeiro (-1.6 p.p.) were the two states with the highest reduction of share in the period, though they maintained the first and second positions in the Brazilian economy.

Per capita GDP of Federal District is more than twice the Brazilian one

The per capita GDP in Brazil was R$33,593.82 in 2018, having increased 5.9% in value over 2017 (R$31,712.65). The Federal District remained as the highest per capita GDP in Brazil (R$85,661.39), nearly 2.5 times the Brazilian per capita GDP.

In the ranking of the  per capita GDP, the states of the Southeast, South and Central-West prevailed among the first 10 positions.

In the Southeast, São Paulo appeared in the second position, Rio de Janeiro in the third, Espírito Santo in the ninth and Minas Gerais in the tenth one. While São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro maintained their position along the entire time series, Minas Gerais rose three positions in relation to 2002 and Espírito Santo fell from the seventh to the ninth position. However, Espírito Santo rose one position in relation to 2017.

In the South Region, Santa Catarina appeared in the fourth position among the highest per capita GDP in Brazil, the same position as in 2002. Rio Grande do Sul was in the fifth position and Paraná, in the eighth one. 

In the Central-West, Mato Grosso advanced the most in terms of relative position between 2002 and 2018, changing from the 11th to the sixth position and increasing its per capita GDP ratio from 0.9 in the beginning of the time series to 1.2 in 2018. Mato Grosso do Sul advanced from the eighth to the seventh position. On the other hand, Goiás was the only state of this region with a per capita GDP below the national one in the entire time series, besides dropping from the tenth to the 11th position between 2002 and 2018.

Northeast states concentrate the lowest per capita GDPs

Among the states with the lowest per capita  GDP in 2018, Maranhão e Piauí ranked in the 27th and 26th positions, respectively. Except for Acre, in the 22nd position, all the positions below the 20th one were occupied by Northeastern states.

In the North, Rondônia ranked in the highest position (12th), with a per capita GDP ratio of 0.8 in 2018, and Tocantins (0.7) was the one that mostly advanced, changing from 21st to the 15th position in the period.

Compensation of employed persons loses share for the second year in a row

In the analysis of the GDP under the point of view of income in 2018, the compensation of the employed persons, the major component of the income, lost share in relation to the previous year for the second consecutive year, changing from 44.3% in 2017 to 43.6% of the Brazilian GDP in 2018. The reduction was due to the drop in the number of employed persons with a formal contract in the employed population, which made the nominal growth of the compensation (4.6%) lower than that in taxes net of subsidies on production and imports (9.5%) and in gross operating surplus plus the gross mixed income (7.1%).

The Southeast (-1.1 p.p.) and South (-0.7 p.p.) regions were the ones that mostly contributed to the loss of share of compensation of employed persons at national level. In the Southeast, the increase in the operating surplus stood out in Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo, coupled with the increase in the value added in the Mining and quarrying industries.

In the South, the major influences came from Rio Grande do Sul, where the number of persons employed with a formal contract reduced, and from Santa Catarina, where the share of taxes net of subsidies on production and imports registered a relative increase.

Having risen the weight of this component in the GDP from the point of view of income from 47.0% to 47.1% between 2017 and 2018, the Central-West remained as the region with the highest share of compensation of employed persons in its economy. The result was partly due to the Federal District, highlighted by the services of Administration, defense, public education and health, and social security.  

The North and Northeast concentrated most of the states with the highest share of compensation of employed persons. Acre, Roraima, Amapá, Paraíba and Sergipe had more than 50% of their respective GDPs related to compensation of employed persons.

As the second region with the highest share in the GDP, the South stood out by the relative balance between the components of compensation of employed persons and gross operating surplus more gross mixed income, which corresponded to 42.0% and 42.8% of the region, respectively.