IBGE forecasts harvest of 253.2 million tonnes for 2021, rise of 0.5% over 2020

November 10, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 11, 2020 11h00 AM

The first estimate of the national production of grains, cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2021 expected a harvest of 253.2 million tonnes, a rise of 0.5% (or more 1.248 million tonnes) in relation to 2020.

On the other hand, the October estimate for the 2020 harvest reached 252 million tonnes, 4.4% above that obtained in 2019 (241.5 million tonnes). The area to be harvested was of 65.3 million hectares, an increase of 2.1 million hectares (3.3%) over the area harvested in 2019. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three major products in this group, which, together, represented 92.6% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.1% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to 2019, the area for corn increased 3.5% – increase of 2.8% in corn - 1st crop and a rise of 3.8% in corn - 2nd crop –, the area for soybeans increased 3.5% and the area for upland cotton, 0.1%, while the area for rice declined 1.1%.

Concerning the production, it rose 7.1% for soybeans, 7.8% for rice and 0.3% for corn (increase of 2.5% for corn - 1st crop and decrease of 0.5% for corn - 2nd crop). The output of upland cotton rose 2.5%.

October's estimate for 2020 252 million tonnes
2020 harvest / 2019 harvest change 4.4% (10.5 million tonnes)
2020 harvest / 9th estimate 2020 change 0.1% (296.1 thousand tonnes)

In October 2020, the IBGE carried out the first projection of the area and production for the 2021 harvest. The Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes in 2021 should add up to 253.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.5% over 2020, or 1,248,158 tonnes.

The increase in the output was mainly due to the bigger production forecast for soybeans (4.6% or 5,595,972 tonnes) and for corn - 1st crop (1.7% or 445,305 tonnes).  The output of corn - 2nd crop (-5.4% or 4,000,364 tonnes), rice (-2.4% or 260,586 tonnes), upland cotton (-11.9% or 837,892 tonnes), beans - 1st crop (-2.2% or 28,521 tonnes), beans - 2nd crop (-4.5% or 45,444 tonnes) and beans - 3rd crop (-6.5% or 38,634 tonnes) were expected to decrease.

Concerning the area forecast, soybean grain (1.2%), corn grain - 1st crop (1.7%) and corn grain - 2nd crop (1.0%) registered positive changes, whereas upland cottonseed (-8.6%), paddy rice (-1.1%), beans - 1st crop (-0.3%), beans - 2nd crop (-3.1%) and beans - 3rd crop (-4.9%) registered negative changes.

The first estimate for the crop to be harvested in 2021 is expected to be revised in the next two surveys in November and December, as well as during the follow up of the harvests along 2021.

2020 harvest should reach 252 million tonnes, a rise of 4.4%

The October´s estimate for the 2020 harvest reached 252 million tonnes, 4.4% higher than that obtained in 2019 (241.5 million tonnes).

A production of 121.5 million tonnes was obtained for soybeans. For corn, an output of 100.9 million tonnes (26.6 million tonnes of corn - 1st crop and 74.2 million tonnes of corn - 2nd crop) was obtained. Rice recorded a production of 11.1 million tonnes, and cotton, of 7.1 million tonnes.

The estimates for the production of corn - 1st crop (0.5% or 119,752 tonnes), corn - 2nd crop (0.4% or 276,896 tonnes), beans - 1st crop (0.2% or 2,488 tonnes), soybeans (0.1% or 114,003 tonnes) increased in relation to the previous month.

On the other hand, the production of upland cotton (-0.2% or 10,812 tonnes), beans - 3rd crop (-0.6% or 3,468 tonnes), beans - 2nd crop (-1.6% or 16,474 tonnes), grapes (-3.2% or 45,527 tonnes), barley (-5.8% or 24,098 tonnes), wheat (-6.3% or 429,081 tonnes) and oat (-9.5% or 98,769 tonnes) declined.

Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 28.9%, followed by Paraná (16.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (10.5%), Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.0%) and Minas Gerais (6.3%). These states together accounted for 80.0% of the national forecast. In relation to the participation of the Brazilian regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (47.5%), South (29.1%), Southeast (10.1%), Northeast (8.9%) and North (4.4%).

Having produced 119.8 million tonnes (47.5%), the Central-West led the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, followed by the South, with 73.3 million tonnes (29.1%), Southeast, with 25.6 million tonnes (10.2%), Northeast, with 22.4 million tonnes (8.9%) and North, with 11.0 million tonnes (4.4%). The total production of grains registered an annual positive change for four regions, being negative only in the South (-4.7%).