In September, IBGE expects rise of 4.4% in grains harvest in 2020

October 08, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 13, 2020 12h10 PM

The estimate for September 2020 for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds accounted for 252.0 million tonnes, 4.4% higher than that of 2019 (241.5 million tonnes), an increase of 10.5 million tonnes. The change was of 0.1% (296.1 thousand tonnes) in relation to the previous month.

September's estimate for 2020 252.0 million tonnes
2020 harvest / 2019 harvest change 4.4% (10.5 million tonnes)
2020 harvest / 8th 2020 estimate change 0.1% (296.1 thousand tonnes)

The area to be harvested was of 65.2 million hectares, a rise of 3.1% (2.0 million hectares) against the area harvested in 2019. The area to be harvested rose 0.1% (43.9 thousand hectares) in relation to the previous month.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three major products in this group, accounted for 92.5% of the estimate of the output and for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2019, the area for corn increased 3.2% (more 2.9% in the first crop and more 3.3% in the second one), the area for soybeans, 3.5% and the area for upland cotton, 0.1%, while the area for rice declined 1.4%. In the output, rises of 7.0% for soybeans, 7.3% for rice and 2.7% for upland cotton, as well as a drop of 0.1% for corn (more 2.0% in the first crop and less 0.9% in the second one) were expected.

A production of 121.4 million tonnes was estimated for soybeans; 100.5 million tonnes (26.5 million tonnes in the first crop and 73.9 million tonnes in the second one) for corn; 11.0 million tonnes for rice and 7.1 million tonnes for cotton.

In relation to the previous month, the estimates in the production of tomatoes (2.8% or 108.5 thousand tonnes), coffea arabica (2.4% or 65.8 thousand tonnes), upland cotton (2.4% or 163.3 thousand tonnes), potatoes - 3rd crop (1.3% or 8.8 thousand tonnes), soybeans (0.3% or 417.5 thousand tonnes) and corn- 2nd crop (0.4% or 272.7 thousand tonnes) increased.

On the other hand, the production of oranges (-7.5% or 1.4 million tonnes), wheat (-5.4% or 388.2 thousand tonnes), potatoes - 2nd crop (-5.4% or 61.1 thousand tonnes), oat (-4.3% or 47.4 thousand tonnes), barley (-1.5% or 6.1 thousand tonnes), coffea canephora (-0.5% or 4.4 thousand tonnes), potatoes- 1st crop (-0.4% or 7.3 thousand tonnes) and corn - 1st crop (-0.1% or 22.9 thousand tonnes) were expected to decline.

Mato Grosso led the national output of grains, with a share of 28.9%, followed by Paraná (16.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (10.6%), Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.0%) and Minas Gerais (6.3%), which, together, represented 80.2% of the national overall.

The rises in the production estimates over August took place in MT (838.3 thousand tonnes), MG (374.7 thousand tonnes), BA (254.3 thousand tonnes), GO (35.3 thousand tonnes), CE (13.2 thousand tonnes) and AC (7.4 thousand tonnes).

SP (-575.1 thousand tonnes), RS (-390.4 thousand tonnes),  PR (-250.4 thousand tonnes), MA (-5.0 thousand tonnes), AP (-3.5 thousand tonnes), PA (-2.3 thousand tonnes), RN (-1.5 thousand tonnes) and ES (-50 tonnes) were expected to drop.

Among the regions, the Central-West accounted for 47.5%; the South, with 29.2%; the Southeast, with 10.2%; the Northeast, with 8.8% and the North, with 4.3%. The overall production of grains registered a positive annual change for four regions, being negative only for the South (-4.7%).

Highlights in the September estimate for 2020

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The ninth production estimate of cotton was of 7.1 million tonnes, an increase of 2.4% over August and a record in the IBGE´s time series. The planted area (1.6 million hectares) and the area to be harvested remained unchanged, but the average yield should increase 2.4%, reaching 4,339 kg/ha.

In Mato Grosso, the largest producer in Brazil (68.8% of the total), the output estimate rose 2.5% over that of August, hitting 4.9 million tonnes, and 4.6% over that of 2019. Bahia, the second largest producer (21.0% of the total), increased 3.1% over the August forecast, hitting 1.5 million tonnes, and 0.3% over 2019.

POTATOES (tuber) - An output of 3.4 million tonnes was estimated, dropping 1.7% in relation to August and 11.8% over 2019. The planted area and the area to be harvested retreated 1.9% over August, yet the average yield grew 0.2%, thanks to the increases in the production in São Paulo (-39.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (-19.5%) and Goiás (-21.9%).

Estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, the first crop retracted 0.4% over the previous month and 3.0% in relation to the previous year, negatively highlighting SP (-2.8%) and RS (-19.8%) in the second comparison, despite the rises in SC (6.1%), PR (4.0%), ES (1.5%) and MG (1.6%).

For the second crop, the production estimated at million tonnes was 5.4% lower than in August and 10.0% below that in 2019.

For the third crop, the production estimate of 676.4 thousand tonnes grew 1.3% in relation to the previous month, though it declined 29.5% in relation to 2019.

COFFEE (grain) - The estimate of the Brazilian production of coffee was of 3.6 million tonnes or 60.6 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 1.7% over the previous month. The planted area declined 0.6%, hitting 1.9 million hectares, though the average yield increased 2.2% to 1,925 kg/ha.

A growth of 21.5% in the output was estimated in relation to 2019, being a record in the IBGE´s time series. The planted area rose 4.2%, whereas the average yield grew 16.7%.

The estimated production of coffea arabica was of 2.8 million tonnes or 46.1 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 2.4% over the previous month, being a record in the IBGE´s time series. Minas Gerais, the largest producer of coffea arabica (71.1% of the total), recorded the highest change this month, rising 1.6% in relation to August and 32.6% in relation to 2019, and an output estimated at 2.0 million tonnes. In São Paulo, the second largest producer, the rise was of 5.9% in relation to August and of 39.7% in relation to 2019, and it should reach 370.0 thousand tonnes.

For coffea canephora, more known as conillon, the production estimate of 870.6 thousand tonnes or 14.5 million 60-kg sacks declined 0.5% in relation to August and 5.7% in relation to the previous year. In Espírito Santo, the largest producer (64.3% of the total), the estimate was 2.2% lower than that of August and should reach 560.0 thousand tonnes, 12.1% lower than that of 2019.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The production estimate of wheat dropped 5.4% in relation to the previous month, though it still registered a rise of 30.6% over 2019, adding up to 6.8 million tonnes. The South Region should account for 88.0% of the national production of wheat and, in Paraná, the largest producer (48.6% of the total), an output of 3.3 million tonnes was estimated, a drop of 4.4% over August, but a rise of 55.8% over 2019.

The estimated output of oat was of 1.0 million tonnes, representing a retreat of 4.3% over the previous month. The unfavorable climate also jeopardized the production in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, the largest Brazilian producers of this cereal, with estimates of 713.0 and 203.0 thousand tonnes, respectively. The Brazilian production of oat should grow 14.4% in relation to the previous year.

For barley, the estimated production was of 412.3 thousand tonnes, representing a retreat of 1.5% over the previous month. The biggest producers of this cereal were Paraná, with 289.7 thousand tonnes, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 108.6 thousand tonnes. The Brazilian output of barley should grow 3.0% in relation to the previous year.

ORANGES - The production estimated in September was of 17.0 million tonnes or 416.7 million 40,8-kg boxes, a drop of 7.5% over the previous month , with reductions of 1.8% in the planted area and of 5.8% in the average yield of the crops. In São Paulo, the major producer (77.0% of the total), the output was estimated at 13.1 million tonnes, with reductions of 3.0% in the area to be harvested and of 6.8% in the productivity of the orange trees, negatively impacting the production in 9.6% over 2019.

CORN (grain) - The 2020 harvest of corn, as well as the second crop of the cereal, represented the second biggest in the IBGE´s time series, losing only for that in 2019. In relation to the latest information, the production estimate grew 0.2%, adding up to 100.5 million tonnes. The planted area was of 18.2 million hectares, increasing 0.2%, whereas the average yield grew 0.1%.

In relation to the previous year, the production fell 0.1% (or less 110.1 thousand tonnes), with a drop of 3.2% in the average yield, though the area to be planted should increase 2.7% and the area to be harvested, 3.2%. The first crop should account for 26.4% of the Brazilian output in 2020 and the second one, for 73.6%.

In the first crop, the production reached 26.5 million tonnes, a decline of 0.1% over August, but a rise of 2.0% in relation to 2019. The output in Rio Grande do Sul dropped 27.7% due to the long drought, which removed Rio Grande do Sul from the top of the ranking of corn producers in this harvest, being passed by Minas Gerais. The output in Minas Gerais was of 4.7 million tonnes, whereas that of Rio Grande do Sul stood at 4.2 million tonnes.

For the second crop, a production was estimated at 73.9 million tonnes, rising 0.4% over August (272.7 thousand tonnes). The most significant increases were in Mato Grosso (1.7% or 546.7 thousand tonnes), Minas Gerais (7.6% or 215.8 thousand tonnes), Bahia (28.1% or 135.0 thousand tonnes), Goiás (0.2% or 15.3 thousand tonnes) and Acre (288.3% or 8.0 thousand tonnes). The retreats were in São Paulo (-19.9% or 535.8 thousand tonnes) and Paraná (-1.0% or 112.6 thousand tonnes). Compared with 2019, the output of corn- 2nd crop dropped 0.9% and the average yield, 4.0%.

SOYBEANS (grain) - Having added up to 121.4 million tonnes, the production of soybeans in 2020 was another record, with a rise of 7.0% in relation to the 2019 harvest. In the monthly comparison, it rose 0.3% in the volume harvested, mainly impacted by the data reported in Bahia (1.5% or 92.5 thousand), Minas Gerais (3.1% or 185.7 thousand tonnes), Paraná (0.1%or 18.6 thousand tonnes) and Mato Grosso (0.6% or 222.1 thousand tonnes). The drops were in São Paulo (-2.2% or 89.5 thousand tonnes) and Rio Grande do Sul (-0.1% or 8.6 thousand tonnes).

The production of this legume was not even bigger due to the drop of 39.4% (or 7.3 million tonnes) in the production in Rio Grande do Sul, as a result of the drought, which also affected the average yield of the grain, which should stay at 1,882 kg/ha, 40.8% below the average in 2019 (3,178 kg/ha).

TOMATOES - The output should hit 4.0 million tonnes, a rise of 2.8% over August, due to the revision of 2.7% in the planted area. The biggest revisions in September took place in São Paulo (16.1%) and Goiás (-3.0%), the two largest Brazilian producers, accounting for 25.7% and 28.5% of the production, respectively.

Compared with 2019, the production dropped 1.9% and the planted area, 3.0%. The appreciation of the dollar quite encumbered the production of this culture, which uses imported inputs.