In August, IBGE forecasts high of 4.2% in 2020 grain crops

September 10, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 11, 2020 12h12 PM

The August 2020 estimate for the national crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was 251.7 million metric tons and remained at the record level in the time series of the IBGE, standing 4.2% (10.2 million more metric tons) above the 2019 crop (241.5 million metric tons) and 0.5% higher (1.2 million more metric tons) than the July estimate.

The area to be harvested was 65.2 million hectares, an increase of 3.1% (1.9 million more hectares) compared to the area harvested in 2019. In relation to the previous month, the growth was 0.4 % (271.4 thousand hectares).

Rice, corn and soybeans, the group's three main products, account for 92.3% of the estimated production and 87.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2019, there were increases of 3.0% in the corn area (3.3% more in the first crop and 2.9% in the second); 3.5% in the soybean area and 0.1% in the upland cotton area, with a 1.5% decrease in the rice area. In production, it is estimated an increase of 6.6% for soybeans, 7.2% for rice and 0.3% for cotton, as well as a decrease of 0.4% for corn (2.1% more in the first crop and 1.2% less in the second).

August estimate for 2020 251.7 million metric tons
 2020 /  2019 crop - change  4.2% (10.2 million metric tons)
2020 / 7th estimate of 2020 - change 0.5% (1.2 million metric tons)

For soybeans a production of 121.0 million metric tons was estimated; for corn, 100.2 million metric tons (26.5 million metric tons in the first crop and 73.7 million metric tons in the second); for rice, 11.0 million metric tons and, for cotton, 6.9 million metric tons.

In relation to the previous month, there were increases in the production estimates for the 2nd crop potato (1.8% or 20.5 thousand metric tons), sugarcane (1.2% or 8.5 million metric tons), coffea arabica (1.1% or 29.4 thousand metric tons), corn 2nd crop (0.8% or 606.2 thousand metric tons), soybean (0.7% or 838.2 thousand metric tons) and coffea canephora (0.6% or 5.6 thousand metric tons). On the other hand, declines in the production of wheat (-2.1% or 153.0 thousand metric tons), beans 1st crop (-1.4% or 18.7 thousand metric tons), 3rd crop potato ( -0.8% or 5.6 thousand metric tons), beans 2nd crop (-0.6% or 6.5 thousand metric tons), corn 1st crop (-0.6% or 166.0 thousand metric tons) and 1st crop potato (-0.0 or 317 metric tons).

Mato Grosso leads the national grain production, with a 28.6% share, followed by Paraná (16.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (10.7%), Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.0%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%), which, together, represented 79.9% of the national total. The increases in production estimates, compared to July, occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul (418.9 thousand metric tons), Goiás (339.4 thousand metric tons), Minas Gerais (209.6 thousand metric tons), Bahia (1781 thousand metric tons) ), Sergipe (98.2 thousand metric tons), Federal District (21.0 thousand metric tons), Maranhão (6.5 thousand metric tons) and Pará (494 metric tons). Negative ones, in Paraná (less 28.6 thousand metric tons), Pernambuco (less 21.0 thousand metric tons), Ceará (less 18.8 thousand metric tons), Paraíba (8.8 thousand less metric tons), Tocantins (5.3 thousand less metric tons), Alagoas (4.3 thousand metric tons), Rio Grande do Norte (1.5 thousand less metric tons), Espírito Santo (267 less metric tons) and Rio de Janeiro (65 less metric tons).

Among the Major Regions, the Central-West participates with 47.2% (118.8 million metric tons); the South, 29.5% (74.3 million metric tons); the Southeast, 10.2% (25.8 million metric tons); the Northeast, 8.8% (22.2 million metric tons) and the North, 4.3% (10.8 million metric tons). Production increased in the Central-West (6.5%), North Region (9.6%), Northeast Region (15.0%) and Southeast Region (8.8%). Only the South presented a decline (3.8%).

August 2020 highlights

POTATOES (tuber) - Brazilian production is expected to reach 3.5 million metric tons, an increase of 0.4% over the previous month. A positive highlight was Minas Gerais, the largest national producer of potatoes (35.2% of the total). The sate revised its production estimate to 1.9%, considering the three crops of the product. In relation to 2019, the estimate of total potato production decreased by 10.2%, impacted by falls in the states of São Paulo (-31.1%), Rio Grande do Sul (-19.5%) and Goiás (-25.8%).

The 1st crop, with a production of 1.7 million metric tons, showed a decline of 317 metric tons (-0.0%), in relation to the previous month and 2.5% in relation to 2019. The fall was mainly driven by Rio Grande do Sul (-19.8%), despite the increases in Minas Gerais (1.8%), Santa Catarina (6.1%) and Paraná (4.0%).

For the 2nd crop, production was estimated at 1.1 million metric tons, an increase of 1.8% compared to July, with Minas Gerais accounting for almost all of the increase, with an estimate of  a 4.8% increase in its production. However, compared to 2019, the production estimate for the 2nd crop was 4.9% lower, with more significnat declines in production in Minas Gerais (-6.8%), Paraná (-4.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-18.0%), while in Santa Catarina, production increased 3.9%.

And, for the 3rd crop, the production estimate is 667.6 thousand metric tons, down 0.8% in relation to the previous month, and 30.5% in relation to 2019. São Paulo and Goiás were the negative highlights, reporting, respectively, declines of 66.0% and 25.8% in their production estimates in relation to 2019. In Minas Gerais, production increased by 16.8%.

COFFEE (beans) - The Brazilian coffee production estimate was 3.6 million metric tons, or 59.6 million 60 kg bags, a growth of 1.0% in relation to the previous month and 19.4% compared to 2019, being a record for the IBGE time series.

For coffea arabica, the estimated production was 2.7 million metric tons, or 45.0 million bags of 60 kg, an increase of 1.1% in relation to the previous month - a record in the IBGE time series. In relation to the previous year, the production estimate grew by 30.4%, due to the positive bienniality of the harvest. The biggest change of the month was that of Espírito Santo, the third largest national producer (8.0% of the total) with an estimated production of 216.3 thousand metric tons, an increase of 7.0% in relation to July and 42.9% in relation to to 2019. In Minas Gerais, the main producer (71.6% of the total), the production estimate, of 1.9 million metric tons, grew 30.5% in relation to 2019.

For coffea canephora, better known as conillon, the production estimate, of 875.0 thousand metric tons, or 14.6 million bags of 60 kg, shows an increase of 0.6% in relation to July and of 5.2% compared to the previous year.

SUGARCANE - Brazilian production is expected to reach 692.0 million metric tons, an increase of 1.2% over the previous month. Mato Grosso do Sul, the fourth largest national producer (8.9% of the total) was the state that presented the main change in production this month with an increase of 19.4%. In São Paulo, the largest national producer (51.1% of the total), the dry climate has favored sugarcane harvesting and crushing, which has shown good yield in the state, driving a 2.6% increase in production compared to 2019. However, should the lack of rainfall persist, it could affect the productivity of the fields in the 2021 crops.

BEANS (in grain) - The estimate of national production, considering the three crops of the product, was 3.0 million metric
tons, an increase of 1.2% in relation to the previous month. The largest producers, considering the three crops together, are Paraná with a 20.0% share of national production, Minas Gerais with 19.8%, Goiás with 10.9% and Bahia with 10.8%. Compared to 2019, estimates for the area to be harvested and for the crops were reduced by 4.3% and 2.9% respectively. But there was an increase of 1.5% in the estimate of the average yield.

Bean 1st crop was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, a decline of 1.4% compared to the July estimate (18.7 thousand less metric tons). The negative highlights came from Paraíba, with a 12.4% reduction in production and Ceará (-8.5%) and Pernambuco (-8.4%). The first crop of the product accounts for 44.5% of the total production of beans. In relation to 2019, there was an increase of 2.3% in production and the positive highlights were: Paraná (increase of 29.4%), Ceará (15.2%), Paraíba (65.7%), Pernambuco ( 149.9%), Minas Gerais (10.3%) and Piauí (6.0%). The negative ones were Bahia (down 21.4%), Santa Catarina (-13.8%), São Paulo (-23.2%), Goiás (-13.7%) and Mato Grosso ( -88.6%).

Bean 2nd crop, which represents 34.8% of total production, was estimated at 1.0 million metric tons, a reduction of 0.6% compared to the July estimate. Paraíba (-34.3%) and Alagoas (-36.3%) had the biggest falls and Paraná had a high (3.6%). As for the annual change, production should fall by 12.1%. Negative highlights for Goiás (-33.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (-22.4%), Paraná (-26.3%), São Paulo (-31.5%), Minas Gerais (-13.2 %), Pernambuco (-79.6%) and Tocantins (-24.2%). On the other hand, Bahia should produce 56.6% more. The highest production estimates for this crop were from Paraná (26.2%), Bahia (18.0%) and Minas Gerais (17.0%).

Regarding bean 3rd crop, the production estimate was 611.6 thousand metric tons, an increase of 10.8% compared to the month of July. Minas Gerais (28.3% more) and the Federal District (91.0%) stand out in the production estimate. In relation to 2019, the production estimate increased 3.9%, with positive highlights for Minas Gerais (32.0%), Goiás (18.8%), Federal District (65.3%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (207.8%) and negative for Mato Grosso (10.0%) and São Paulo (53.5%).

CORN (in grain) - In relation to the last information, the production estimate grew 0.4%, totaling 100.2 million metric tons. In relation to the previous year, production is 359.9 thousand metric tons lower (-0.4%), with a 3.3% drop in average yield, although there are increases of 2.6% in the area to be planted and 3.0% in the area to be harvested. The first crop should account for 26.5% of Brazilian production in 2020 and the second, for 73.5%.

In the 1st corn crop, production reached 26.5 million metric tons, a 0.6% decline compared to the previous month. Compared to 2019, production was 2.1% higher, with increases of 1.7% in planted area and a decline of 1.2% in the average yield. Rio Grande do Sul production declined by 27.7% due to a strong drought, which made Rio Grande do Sul lose the position of largest corn producer in this crop, being overtaken by Minas Gerais. Minas Gerais production was 4.8 million metric tons, while the state was 4.2 million tons. The growing demand for cereal, with the increase in meat exports (since corn is the main component of pig and poultry feed), kept prices at high levels, contributing to increase crop investments.

For the 2nd crop, the production estimate was 73.7 million metric tons, an increase of 0.8% in relation to the previous month. The most significant increases in production estimates were reported by Sergipe (13.5%), Bahia (29.7%), Minas Gerais (4.0%), Goiás (4.5%) and Paraná (1.9% ). However, there was a decline in production in Mato Grosso do Sul (-4.1%). With the harvest in its final phase in the Central-West Region, producers have been experiencing a higher yield per hectare, as a result of the greater investments made in production technology and weather conditions. Even so, in comparison with the previous year, the production of 2nd crop corn declined by 1.2%, but it is worth mentioning that the Brazilian production of 2nd crop corn, in 2019, was a record in the IBGE time series, becoming, therefore, a high comparison basis.

SOYBEANS (in grain) - The soybean production of 2020 is another record of the IBGE time series, having totaled 121.0 million metric  tons, which represents an increase of 6.6% in relation to the previous year's crop and of 0.7% over the previous month. Mato Grosso do Sul stood out in comparison with July, reporting an increase of 7.5% in production. On the other hand, the production of Rio Grande do Sul declined 39.3% in relation to 2019, due to a prolonged drought in the state between December 2019 and May 2020. The scarcity of rainfall directly influenced the average yield, which should be close to 1,883 kilograms per hectare, down 40.7% compared to the 2019 state average (3,178 kg/ha).

WHEAT (in grain) - The estimate of wheat production (7.2 million metric tons) fell 2.1% in relation to the previous month, but rose 38.0% in relation to 2019. The South region must account, in 2020 , for 90.0% of the national wheat production. In Paraná, the largest producer of this cereal (48.1% of the national total), production was estimated at 3.5 million metric tons, a decrease of 5.7% in relation to the previous month, but an increase of 62.9% in relation to the production of 2019. Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest producer (39.6% of the total), should produce 2.9 million metric tons, an increase of 25.1% in relation to 2019.