In May, industry grows in 12 of the 15 places surveyed

July 08, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 09, 2020 10h55 AM

In May 2020, 12 of the 15 surveyed locations had positive rates compared to April, in the seasonally adjusted series. The greatest advances were in Paraná (24.1%), Pernambuco (20.5%) and Amazonas (17.3%). In the Northeast region (12.7%) and in the states of Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%), São Paulo (10.6%) and Bahia (7.6%) there was also growth above the national average (7, 0%). Espírito Santo (-7.8%) had the highest decrease. The other negative rates were due to Ceará (-0.8%) and Pará (-0.8%). The information is from the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM).

Short-Term Indicators of Industry
Regional Results
May 2020
Places Change (%)
May 2020/
April 2020*
May 2020/
May 2019
Cumulative
January-May
Cumulative in the last 12 months
Amazonas 17.3 -47.3 -20.7 -3.8
Pará -0.8 -13.0 0.9 1.3
Região Nordeste 12.7 -23.2 -8.8 -5.9
Ceará -0.8 -50.8 -21.8 -7.9
Pernambuco 20.5 -13.5 -4.7 -4.5
Bahia 7.6 -20.7 -5.9 -5.1
Minas Gerais 6.3 -15.1 -12.1 -9.1
Espírito Santo -7.8 -31.7 -18.5 -18.0
Rio de Janeiro 5.2 -9.1 2.8 3.9
São Paulo 10.6 -23.4 -13.6 -5.6
Paraná 24.1 -18.1 -8.9 -2.0
Santa Catarina 5.4 -28.6 -15.4 -6.6
Rio Grande do Sul 13.3 -27.3 -16.6 -7.7
Mato Grosso 4.4 -3.4 -3.8 -4.2
Goiás 3.0 1.5 -0.3 1.5
Brazil 7.0 -21.9 -11.2 -5.4
Source: IBGE. Diretoria de Pesquisas. Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally-adjsuted Series

In the 7.0% growth of the national industrial activity from April to May 2020, in the seasonally adjusted series, 12 of the 15 places surveyed reached positive rates. The behavior results mainly from the production resumption (though a partial one) of the plants, after interruptions caused by the pandemic effects.

Paraná (24.1%) and Pernambuco (20.5%) had the sharpest growth, after accumulating retreats of 31.8% and 25.4% (respectively) in the months of \March and April, followed by Amazonas (17.3%), which interrupted three months of negative rates in a row accumulating a reduction of 53.4%. Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%), Northeast Region (12.7%), São Paulo (10.6%) and Bahia (7.6%) also recorded advances above the national average (7.0%). Minas Gerais (6.3%), Santa Catarina (5.4%), Rio de Janeiro (5.2%), Mato Grosso (4.4%) and Goiás (3.0%) close the set of places with positive indexes, but below the national average.

On the other hand, Espírito Santo (-7.8%) initiated the sharpest retreat in May 2020, the third consecutive month of production drop, with a loss of 30.9% in the period. Ceará and Pará, both with a 0.8% reduction, also recorded negative rates this month

The quarterly moving average had decrease of 8.0% in the quarter ended in May 2020 over the previous month's level, after retreating 8.8% in April. Therefore, it kept the prevailing downward trend started in October 2019. Due to the pandemic, the reduction of April and May were the sharpest ones since the beginning of the time series.

Fourteen of the 15 places surveyed had negative rates in May, with a highlight to Ceará (-21.0%), Amazonas (-18.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-11.6%), Espírito Santo (-11.5%), Northeast Region (-10.6%), Santa Catarina (-10.2%), Bahia (-8.6%) and São Paulo (-7.3%). Having expanded 0.8%, Goiás was the only place to report a positive figure this month.

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, mainly because of the pandemic, the industrial sector fell 21.9% in May 2020, showing negative figures in 14 out of the 15 places surveyed. Besides the negative calendar effect, since May 2020 (20 workdays) had two less business days than the same month a year ago (22), there is a clear decline in the production pace due to the social isolation effects. Ceará (-50.8%) and Amazonas (-47.3%) registered the most intense declines. Espírito Santo (-31.7%), Santa Catarina (-28.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (-27.3%), São Paulo (-23.4%) and Northeast region (-23.2%) also recorded sharpest losses than that of the national average  (-21,9%). Bahia (-20.7%), Paraná (-18.1%), Minas Gerais (-15.1%), Pernambuco (-13.5%), Pará (-13.0%), Rio de Janeiro (-9.1%) and Mato Grosso (-3.4%) complete the set of places with production drop in this comparison.

Goiás, in turn, advancing 1.5%, recorded the only positive rate in the monthly index of May, mostly leveraged by food products (VHP and granulated sugar, raw an refined soybean oil, tomato extracts, puree and pulp, condensed milk and pies, bagasse, bran and other residues from soybean oil extraction).

In the cumulative index of the years, over the same period of 2019, also marked by the pandemic, there was reduction in 13 of the 15 sectors, with a highlight to Ceará (-21.8%), Amazonas (-20.7%) and Espírito Santo (-18.5%). Rio Grande do Sul (-16.6%), Santa Catarina (-15.4%), São Paulo (-13.6%) and Minas Gerais (-12.1%) recorded sharper negative rates than the national average (-11.2%). Paraná (-8.9%), Northeast Region (-8.8%), Bahia (-5.9%), Pernambuco (-4.7%), Mato Grosso (-3.8%) and Goiás (-0.3%) close the set of places with production decrease in the cumulative index of the year , but with negative rates less intense than that of the national average.

Conversely, Rio de Janeiro (2.8%) and Pará (0.9%) indicate the isolated advances in the cumulative index from January to May 2020, mostly leveraged by the positive behavior of the mining and quarrying industries.

The cumulative index in the last 12 months, by recording a 5.4% reduction in May 2020, marked the sharpest decrease since December 2016 (-6.4%) and remained with the loss pace over the results of the previous months. In regional terms, 12 out of the 15 places surveyed recorded negative rates in this comparison, but 15 showed lower dynamism against the indexes of April. Ceará (from -3.1% to -7.9%), Amazonas (from 0.5% to -3.8%), Santa Catarina (from -2.6% to -6.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (from -3.7% to -7.7%), Paraná (from 1.7% to -2.0%), São Paulo (from -2.5% to -5.6%), Bahia (from -2.5% to -5.1%), Northeast Region (from -3.5% to -5.9%), Pernambuco (from -2.5% to -4.5%) and Rio de Janeiro (from 5.1% to 3.9%) showed the main losses.

From April to May 2020, due to the pandemic, the industrial sector intensified the pace of decline in production (-24.5%) over what was seen in the first quarter of 2020 (-1.7%) and remained with the negative behavior present since the last quarter of 2018 (-1.3%) in all the comparison against the same period a year ago. In regional terms, 13 of the 15 surveyed places also reported a loss of dynamism, with a highlight to Ceará, which went from -1.4% in the first three months of the year to -51.8% in the April-May 2020 period, Amazonas (from -0.8% to -50.6%), Northeast Region (from 4.3% to -28.0%), Bahia (from 7.0% to -23.4%), Pernambuco (from 5.8% to -20.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (from -5.1% to -31.7%), Paraná (from 2.5% to -24.0%), São Paulo (from -2.5% to -27.6%), Santa Catarina (from -5.2% to -29.6%), Rio de Janeiro (from 9.9% to -7.6%) and Espírito Santo (from - 12.2% to -28.4%). On the other hand, Pará (-1.2% to 4.4%) recorded the greatest pace gain between the two periods.