Industrial production advances 7.0% in May

July 02, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 06, 2020 12h29 PM

In May 2020, industrial production grew 7.0% compared to April 2020 (seasonally-adjusted series), interrupting two months of consecutive negative results: -9.2% in March and -18.8% in April. In relation to May 2019 (non-adjusted series), the industry decreased 21.9%, the seventh negative result in a row in this type of comparison and the second highest drop since the beginning of the time series, just behind April 2020 (- 27.3%). In the year, the industry accumulated a fall of 11.2%. In 12 months, the decrease was 5.4%, the sharpest one since December 2016 (-6.4%). The full publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) is on the right.

May  2020 / April 2020 7.0%
May 2020 / May 2019 - 21.9%
Cumulative in the year -11.2%
Cumulative in 12 months - 5.4%
Quarterly moving avergae - 8.0%

The 7.0% expansion in May 2020 was the highest since June 2018 (12.9%), but offset just a small part of the 26.3% decrease accumulated between March and April 2020.  The positive behavior was widespread, especially because the increase of the productive pace, after the months of march and April reflect the shutting down of several industrial plants due to the social isolation because of COVID-19. Nevertheless, even with the sharper positive performance in May, the total industry is still 34.1% lower the record level reached in May 2011. Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the moving average index keeps the decreasing behavior, with the overall industry shrinking 8.0% in the quarter ending in May 2020 and maintaining the predominantly downward trend started in October 2019.

Industrial Production Indicators by Major Economic Category
Brazil - May 2020
Major Economic Categories Change (%)
May 2020/
April 2020*
May 2020/
May 2019
Cumulative
January-May
Cumulative over the Last 12 Months
Capital Goods 28.7 -39.4 -21.0 -9.6
Intermediate Goods 5.2 -14.6 -6.7 -4.2
Consumer Goods 14.5 -31.0 -17.1 -6.3
Durable 92.5 -69,7 -37.1 -14.7
Semi-Durable and Non-Durable 8.4 -19.3 -11.2 -4.0
General Industry 7.0 -21.9 -11.2 -5.4
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally-Adjusted Series

All major economic categories and 20 out of the 26 sectors surveyed advanced

The 7.0% advance of the industrial activity from April to May 2020 was widespread, reaching all the major economic categories and 20 of the 26 segments surveyed. Among the activities, the most relevant positive influences were in Motor Vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (244.4%); coke, petroleum derivatives and biofuels (16.2%); and beverages (65.6%), leveraged to a great extent, by the production return (though partial) of the producing units, after the production interruption occurred in several units, due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

With these results, Motor Vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers interrupted two consecutive months of production decrease and recorded the greatest expansion since the beginning of the time series, but even so, it is 72.8% below last February result. The sector of coke, petroleum products and biofuels returned to growth after three consecutive months of negative rates and accruing a loss of 20.0%. Meanwhile, beverages eliminated part of the 49.6% reduction accumulate in March and April 2020.

The other relevant positive contributions to the overall industry came from non-metallic mineral products (16.9%), Basic metals (9.5%), plastic and rubber (13.5%), leather, travel goods and footwear (49.7%), metal products (13.4%), machinery and equipment (9.0%), furniture (49.1%), computer, electronic and optical products (18.0%) electrical machinery and apparatus(13.2%), other transportation equipment (57.9%) wearing apparel and accessories (12.3%) and other  pharmaceuticals (4.7%).

On the other hand, among the six segments that decreased, the most important performances to the global result were recorded by mining and quarrying industries (-5.6%), Pulp, Paper and Paper Products (-6.4%) and toiletry, soaps, cleaning and personal hygiene products (-6.0%). The first one kept the negative behavior present since September 2019 and accumulated in this period a reduction of 18.1%. The second one registered the third consecutive month of decrease in production, with a 8.3% loss in the period. The third one eliminated part of the 7.9% growth seen between February and April 2020.

Among the major economic categories, in comparison with April 2020, durable consumer goods, increasing 92.5% and capital goods (28.7%) showed the highest positive rates in May 2020, both interrupting two consecutive months of production decrease and recording the highest advance since the beginning of their time series. Despite the high positive results, the segments are still quite below the Level of February. -69.5% and -36.1%, respectively.

The sectors of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (8.4%) and intermediate goods (5.2%) also registered growth in production, with the first also advancing above the industry average (7.0%) and interrupting three consecutive months of decline in production, a period in which it accumulated a 22.9% decrease; and the second growing again after accumulating a loss of 8.2% in the months of March and April 2020.

Quarterly moving average shrinks 8.0%

Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry pointed to a decline of 8.0% in the quarter ended in May 2020 over the previous month, after having dropped 8.8% in April, keeping the prevailing downward trend started in October 2019. It is worth mentioning that the reductions in April and May were the highest ones since the beginning of the series.

Among the major economic categories, still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, the segments of durable consumer goods (-36.3%) and capital goods (-15.4%) had the sharpest falls this month. The first one intensified the loss seen in the previous month (-30.4%) and recorded the sharpest negative result since the beginning of the time series. Capital goods, in turn, kept the downward trend started in June 2019. semi- and non- durable consumer goods fell 6.1%, keeping the negative behavior since December 2019 and accumulate a loss of 18.7%. Intermediate goods retreated 5.0%, going forward with its prevailing decreasing trend started in October 2019.

Industry retreated 21.9% compared with May 2019

Compared with the May 2019, the industrial sector retreated 21.9% in May 2020, with negative figures in the four major economic categories, 22 out of the 26 sectors, 72 out of the 79 groups and 81.9% of the 805 products surveyed. Besides the negative calendar effect, since May 2020 (20 workdays) had two less days than the same month a year ago (22), there is a clear decrease of the production pace due to the effects of social isolation, which affected the production process in several productive units in the country.

Among the activities, that of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-74.5%) had the highest negative impact on the industry average, pressed, to a large extent, by the items cars, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and transporting goods vehicles and car pieces.

There were also negative contributions from the segments of machinery and equipment (-35.5%), basic metals (-28.0%), apparel and accessories (-60.8%), rubber products and plastic material (-26.4%), other chemical products (-17.1%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-36.5%), leather, travel goods and footwear (-56.3 %), non-metallic mineral products (-25.0%), metal products (-25.0%), other transportation equipment (-71.2%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-31.1%), textiles (-46.5%), mining and quarrying industries (-5.7%), miscellaneous products (-50.6%) and beverages (-16.5 %).

On the other hand, still comparing with May 2019, among the four activities that expanded the output, the major influences on the industry overall were registered by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.6%) and food products (2.9%).

Among the major economic categories, still comparing with the same month in 2019, durable consumer goods (-69.7%) and capital goods (-39.4%) posted the sharpest declines in May 2020 in the major economic categories. The segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-19.3%) and of intermediate goods (-14.6%) also posted negative rates this month, though both with less intense drop than that of the national average (-21.9%). Those high negative results also reveal the interruption occurred in several plants due to the social isolation to prevent the dissemination of COVID-19.

The segment of durable consumer goods retreated 69.7% in May 2020 over the same period last year, the fourth negative result in a row in this kind of comparison and the second sharpest rate since the beginning of the time series, just behind last April's loss (-84.9%). This sector was particularly pressed by the reduced production of cars (-86.0%).  There were also reductions in white goods (-49.7%), brown goods (30.8%), motorcycles (-85.7%) and furniture (-37.7%) and other household appliances (-49.0%).

The sector of capital goods, retreated 39.4% in May 2020 in relation to the same period in 2019, in the fourth negative rate in a row in this type of comparison and the second negative in a row sin de the beginning of the time series, just below the reduction seen in April (-51,8%). This segment was influenced by the drop in the group of capital goods for transportation equipment (-59.8%). The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for industrial use (-36.1%), for mixed use (-21.7%), for construction (-41.1%), for agriculture (-21.2%) and for electricity (-14.5%).

Also in comparison with the same month of the previous year, the segment of semi- and non-durable consumer goods decreased 19.3% in May 2020, the fifth consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison and the second highest since the beginning of the time series , just behind the loss observed in April (-25.2%). The performance of the month resulted from the decrease observed in the sub-sector of semi-durable goods (-53.9%).  It is also worth mentioning the negative results recorded by the groups of food and beverages for domestic consumption (-9.9%), non-durable goods (-13.8%) and fuels (-15.4%).

The production of intermediate goods retreated 14.6% in the monthly index of May 2020, after also retreating in March (-1.5%) and April (-17.4%) this year. This month's result was mainly explained by the decreases in products associated with the activities of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-70.8%), basic metals (-28.0%), other chemicals (-17.0%), non-metallic mineral products (-24.9%), rubber and plastic products (-24.9%), metal products (-27.3%), machinery and equipment (-41.1%), mining and quarrying industries (-5.7%), textiles (-44.9%) and pulp, paper and paper products (-7.1%), while positive pressures were registered by food products (16.2%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (9.7%).

It is also worth mentioning the negative results seen in the groups of typical inputs of civil construction (21,5%), which recorded the sixth negative consecutive tare; of packaging (-14.9%), which registered the sharpest decrease since the beginning of the time series.

In the cumulative index between January and May 2020 over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector dropped 11.2%, with negative figures in four out of the four major economic categories, 22 out of the 26 sectors, 63 out of the 79 groups and 75.8% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (-42.0%) accounted for the main negative contribution to the formation of the industry average.

It is also worth mentioning the negative contributions noted by the sectors of metallurgy (-13.9%), machinery and equipment (-16.3%), apparel and accessories (-34.3%), beverages ( -15.5%), leather, travel goods and footwear (-31.8%), non-metallic mineral products (-15.3%), rubber and plastic products (-12.7%), other transportation equipment (-39.3%), metal products (-13.3%), Electrical Machinery and Apparatus (-16.0%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products  (-16.8%), mining and quarrying industries (-3.1%), other chemical products (-6.2%) and textiles (-21.4%).

Among the major economic categories, the profile of results for the five months of 2020 showed less dynamism in durable consumer goods (-37.1%) and capital goods (-21.0%), mainly affected by the output decrease of cars (-49.8%), in the former one, and capital goods for the transportation equipment (-35.3%), in the latter.  The segments of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-11.2%) and intermediate goods (-6.7%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index in the year. The former segment repeated the magnitude of the drop of the national average (-11.2%), and the latter recorded the less intense decline among the major economic categories.