IPCA-15 stays at -0.59% in May

May 26, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: May 27, 2020 01h25 PM

The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 - IPCA-15 changed -0.59% in May against -0.01% in April. It was the lowest monthly change since the beginning of the Real Plan, in 1994. The cumulative change over the year was 0.35% and, in the last 12 months, 1.96%, below the rate of 2.92% recorded in the 12 immediately previous months. In May 2019, the rate was 0.35%.

May 2020 -0.59%
April 2020 -0.01%
May 2019 0.35%
Cumulative in the year 0.35%
Cumulative in 12 months 1.96%

Among the nine groups of products and services surveyed, five recorded deflation in May.  Transportation registered the lowest change (-3.15%) and the most intense negative impact on the month´s index: -0.63 percentage points (p.p.). The group of Housing (-0.27%) also retreated, contributing with -0.04 p.p. On the highs side, Food and beverages (0.46%) stood out once again, though it decelerated in relation to April (2.46%). The other groups stood between the drop of 0.20% in Wearing apparel and the rise of 0.45% in Household articles.

IPCA-15 - Groups - Change and Impact   
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
April May April May
Overall Index -0.01 -0.59 -0.01 -0.59
Food and beverages 2.46 0.46 0.48 0.09
Housing 0.12 -0.27 0.02 -0.04
Household articles -3.19 0.45 -0.12 0.02
Wearing apparel 0.01 -0.20 0.00 -0.01
Transportation -1.47 -3.15 -0.30 -0.63
Health and personal care -0.32 -0.13 -0.04 -0.02
Personal expenses -0.28 -0.09 -0.03 -0.01
Education -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Communication -0.30 0.22 -0.02 0.01
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços, Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor.

The drop of 3.15% in Transportation was influenced by the result of fuels, which declined 8.54% compared with the previous month. Gasoline (-8.51%) recorded the highest individual negative impact on the May´s IPCA-15 (-0.41 p.p.), though the most intense negative change came from ethanol, with -10.40%. In addition, diesel fuel (-5.50%) and vehicular gas (-1.21%) also posted a drop in their prices.

Still in Transportation, airfare fell 27.08% in May after rising 14.83% in April, contributing with -0.17 p.p. to the month´s index. All the areas surveyed dropped: since -30.69% in Goiânia up to -23.42% in Belém.

In the group of Housing (-0.27%), the most intense negative contribution (-0.03 p.p.) came from electricity (-0.72%). In May, the green tariff flag – which does not impose any additional charge in the fare – was maintained for the fourth month in a row. The areas varied between -2.95% in Fortaleza and 2.95% in Goiânia.

Two other dropping items were bottled gas (-1.09%) and piped gas (-0.36%), the latter due to the reduction of 2.50% in the fare in Rio de Janeiro (-1.22%), in force since May 1st. Lastly, the positive change in water and sewage fees (0.04%) stood out, with the average adjustment of 6.23% occurred in one of the concessionaires in Porto Alegre (0.41%) on March 21.

Food and beverages (0.46%) decelerated in relation to the previous month (2.46%), mainly influenced by the behavior of food for consumption at home, which changed from 3.14% in April to 0.60% in May. Onions registered the highest rise, with a change of 33.59% and an impact of 0.04 p.p. Other highlights were potatoes (16.91%), carioca beans (13.62%), garlic (5.22%) and rice (2.59%). On the other hand, the prices of carrots fell 6.41%, after rising 31.67% in the April´s IPCA-15. In addition, meat (-1.33%) accelerated the drop over the previous month (-0.27%), contributing with an impact of -0.03 p.p.

Food away from home also decelerated between April (0.94%) and May (0.13%), especially due to snacks (0.64%), whose prices had increased 3.23% in the previous month.

The second highest positive change this month came from the group of Household articles (0.45%), highlighted by the rises in the items TV, sound and computers (2.81%) and household appliances and equipment (0.89%). On the dropping side, the most negative contribution (-0.02 p.p.) came from the items of furniture (-1.82%), though the drop in May has been less intense than in April (-4.00%).

All the 11 areas surveyed recorded deflation in May. The highest index was in the metropolitan area of Fortaleza (-0.23%), mainly due to the rise of some items, like onions (43.87%) and meat (2.94%). The lowest result was in the metropolitan area of Curitiba (-1.12%), with the retreat in the prices of fuels (-10.86%), especially gasoline (-10.35%), and airfare (-24.48%).

Area Regional Weight (%) Monthly Change (%)  Cumulative Change (%) 
April May In the year 12 months
Fortaleza 3.88 0.02 -0.23 1.58 3.00
Recife 4.71 0.17 -0.35 1.06 1.74
Rio de Janeiro 9.77 0.61 -0.39 0.63 1.93
São Paulo 33.45 -0.05 -0.52 0.58 2.44
Belém 4.46 -0.16 -0.53 0.50 2.75
Salvador 7.19 0.09 -0.54 0.62 1.77
Brasília 4.84 -0.40 -0.66 -0.61 1.21
Porto Alegre 8.61 -0.04 -0.69 0.04 1.35
Belo Horizonte 10.04 0.00 -0.70 0.46 2.07
Goiânia 4.96 -0.52 -0.81 -1.02 0.93
Curitiba 8.09 -0.21 -1.12 -0.70 1.25
Brasil 100.00 -0.01 -0.59 0.35 1.96
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços, Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor.

In order to estimate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from April 15 to May 14, 2020 (reference) and compared with those in effect from March 17 to April 14, 2020 (base). The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, as well as Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.