In February 2020, industrial production increased 0.5% compared to January 2020, in the seasonally adjusted series. In relation to February 2019 (series without seasonal adjustment), the industry fell -0.4% in February 2020. Thus, the industrial sector accumulated a fall of -0.6% in the year. In the 12-month period, industrial activity also decreased (-1.2%). The full publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) is on the right. 

The industrial sector, in February 2020, shows a gain of productive pace, seen not only in the second consecutive month of expansion, in the comparison with the previous month, but also in the disseminated profile of positive rates, since 15 out of the 26 activities recorded growth in production. It is worth highlighting that the advance of 1.6% accumulated in those two first months of 2020 eliminated only part of the 2.5% reduction verified in the last two months of 2019. With these results, the industrial sector remain 16.6% below the record level achieved in May 2011. In the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average index (0.2%) interrupted the downward trend started in October 2019, with gain of pace in industrial activity in the beginning of 2020.

Production advances in 2 out of the 4 categories and 15 out of 26 sectors

In the 0.5 % advance of industrial activities between January and February 2020, two out of the four major economic categories and 15 out of 26 surveyed sectors recorded expansion in production.

Among the activities, the major positive influences were recorded in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.7%) and other chemical products (2.6%), with both recording growth for the second consecutive month and accumulating gain of 7.8% and 4.2% in this period, respectively. Other positive contributions were food (0.6%), pulp, paper and paper products (2.4%), pharmaceutical products (3.2%) and rubber products and plastic products (2.1%).

Except for the last activity, which interrupted two months in a row of negative rates and accumulated losses of 1.1% in this period, the others recorded growth in the previous month: 1.5%, 1.8% and 6.7%, respectively.

On the other hand, among the ten sectors that reduced the production this month, the most important performance for the global average was recorded in coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.8%), interrupting three consecutive months of expansion in production, when the cumulative gain was 8.6%.

Other important negative impacts were in the sectors of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-5.8%) and other transportation equipment (-8.7%). The first one eliminated the advance of 3.5% verified in January 2020; and the second maintained the present negative behavior since November 2019,accumulating reduction of 17.0% in this period.

Among the major economic categories, in relation to January 2020,  capital goods rose 1.2%, showing the sharpest high in February 2020, after an advance of 13.0% in January 2020, when it interrupted the negative behavior in effect since May 2019, in which period the cumulative reduction was of 14.4%.

Intermediate goods also recorded positive rates this month (0.5%) and registered the third consecutive month of increase in production, a period with a cumulative gain of 1.6%.

Durable goods (-0.7%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (-0.2%) recorded negative results this month. The first one eliminated part of the 4.1% advance recorded in the previous month; and the second one maintained the present negative behavior since November 2019, with a cumulative loss of 2.6% in this period.

Quarterly moving average shows positive change of 0.2%

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry’s total had a positive change of 0.2% in the quarter closed in February 2020 against the previous month level, interrupting the downward trend started in October 2019.

Among the major economic categories, in relation to this index movement on margin, intermediate goods (0.5%) and capital goods (0.2%) recorded positive rates this month, with the first one returning to rise after three consecutive months of decrease in production, accumulating reduction of 0.9% in this period, and with the second one interrupting the downward trend started in June 2019.

On the other hand, semi-durable and non-durable (-0.6%) and durable goods (-0.5%) recorded retreats in February 2020, both in the third consecutive month of decrease and with a cumulative reduction of 1.8% and 3.7%, respectively.

Industry rebounds 0.4% against February 2019

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector decreased 0.4% in February 2020, with negative results in three out of the four major economic categories, 14 out of the 16 segments, 14 out of 26 the sectors, 42 out of the 49 groups and 53.8% out of the 805 surveyed products. It is worth highlighting that February 2020 (18 days) had two less business days than same month in the previous year (20 days).

Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-9.3%) had the major negative influence, pushed, mainly, by cars. Other negative contributions were from the sectors of transportation equipment (-22.6%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-10.6%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-13.5%), machinery and equipments (-3.8%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-25.8%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-3.6%) and non-metallic mineral products (-2.4%).On the other hand, among the twelve activities that recorded expansion in production against February 2019, the major influence in the industry’s total was coke, petroleum products and biofuels (11.0%), leveraged, mainly, by the manufacture of fuel oils, naphthas for petrochemicals and motor gasoline.

Other important positive impacts were recorded in the sectors other chemical products (3.4%), beverages (4.5%), pulp, paper and paper products (4.1%), tobacco (35.7%), rubber products and plastic products (2.8%) and basic metals (1.2%).

Among the major economic categories, against the same month in the previous year, durable goods (-11.6%) recorded, in February 2020, a two-digit rebound, the sharpest among the major economic categories. The sectors of capital goods (-4.6%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (-1.6%) also recorded higher negative rates than the national average (-0.4%). On the other hand, the segment intermediate goods (2.5%) registered the only positive result this month.

The segment durable goods retreated 11.6% in February 2020 against the same period in the previous year, interrupting five positive moths in a row in this kind of comparison. The sector was under pressure by the reduction in car manufacturing (-18.5%). It is worth highlighting also the rebounds recorded in brown goods (-12.1%), motorcycles (-8.3%) and the group of other household appliances (-26.0%). On the other hand, the expansion in the manufacture of white goods (9.7%) has the major positive influence in this category. Another positive impact was recorded in the group of furniture (5.0%).

Capital goods rebounded 4.6% in February 2020, after an advance of 4.2% in the previous month, when it interrupted three consecutive months of negative rates in this kind of comparison. The sector was influenced, mainly, by the retreat in the group of capital goods: transportation equipment (-6.6%), under pressure by the manufacture of airplanes, vehicles for passenger or cargo transportation (including tankers and platforms). The other negative rates were recorded in capital goods for mixed use (-13.0%), for agricultural purposes (-14.5%), for construction (-5.4%) and for industrial purposes (-0.1%). On the other hand, the only positive impact was recorded in the group of capital good for electricity (3.5%).

The sector of semi-durable and non-durable goods, rebounded 1.6% in February 2020, intensifying the previous month decrease (-0.8%), when it interrupted four consecutive months of positive rates. The performance this month was explained by the decrease in the group of non-durable goods (-1.9%), food and beverage for domestic consumption (-0.8%), semi-durable goods (-2.2%) and fuels (-3.7%).

Intermediate goods advanced 2.5% in February 2020, interrupting three consecutive months of negative rates in this kind of comparison. The result reflects the advances in products related to coke, petroleum products and biofuels (15.1%), food (5.8%), other chemical products (3.8%), pulp, paper and paper products (4.3%), rubber products and plastic products (2.9%), basic metals (1.2%), textiles (4.1%) and mining and quarrying industry (0.4%). On the other hand, the negative pressures were machinery and equipment (-13.1%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-3.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-2.7%) and metal products (-1.3%). Moreover, in this economic category, it is worth highlighting the results recorded in the group of typical inputs for civil construction (-1.6%) and packaging (1.3%).

The cumulative index of the year, against same period previous year, had reduction of 0.6%, with negative results in 3 out of the 4 major economic categories, 14 out of the 26 sectors, 38 out of the 79 groups and 50.4% out of the 805 surveyed products. Among the activities, mining and quarrying industry (-8.2%) exerted the major negative influence in the industry average, under pressure, mainly, of the item iron ores. It is also worth highlighting the negative contributions recorded in the sectors of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-5.4%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-29.1%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-12.1%), other transportation equipment (-14.4%) and computer equipment and electronic and optical products (-3.0%). However, among the twelve activities that increased in production, the major influence in the industry’s total was recorded in coke, petroleum products and biofuels (12.8%), leveraged, mainly, by the manufacture of fuel oils, naphthas for petrochemicals and motor gasoline for petrochemistry and diesel fuel. Other important positive impacts were recorded in beverages (2.8%), pulp, paper and paper products (2.9%), other pharmaceutical products (4.1%) and tobacco (21.1%).

Among the major economic categories, the results’ profile for the first months 2020 showed less dynamism for durable goods (-5.4%), under pressure, above all, of the reduction in car manufacturing (-12.7%). The segments semi durable and non-durable goods (-1.2%) and capital goods (-0;6%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index. Nevertheless, intermediate goods (0.4%) recorded the only expansion, leveraged, mainly, by the advances in products related to coke, petroleum products and biofuels (16.6%) and food (6.1%), highlighting fuel oils, naphthas for petrochemicals and motor gasoline for petrochemistry and diesel fuel, in the first one; and sugar, in the second one.