In January, IBGE forecasts high of 2.2% in 2020 grain crop

February 11, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 13, 2020 04h51 PM

In January, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds of 2020 was estimated at 246.7 million metric tons, 2.2% above the 2019 crop (5.3 million more metric tons) and 1.5% higher than the 3rd Prognosis (3.5 million more metric tons). The area to be harvested is 64.3 million hectares, 1.7% above that of 2019 (1.1 million more ha) and 0.3% greater than the previous month (193.5 more miles).

January estimate for 2020 246.7 million metric tons
Change against the 3rd prognosis for 2020 1.5% (3.5 million metric tons)
2020/2019 crops - change 2.2% (5.3 million metric tons)

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products of this group, which, together, represented 93.2% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there was an increase of 1.3% in the corn area (increase of 3.6% in the first corn crop and increase of 0.4% in the second corn crop), of 2.4% in the area of soybeans and 5.8% for the upland cotton area, with a 2.5% decline in the rice area.

The estimate is a record in soybean and cotton production, with increases of 8.7% for soybeans (production of 123.3 million metric tons), of 1.0% for rice (10.4 million metric tons) , of 1.6% for herbaceous cotton (7.0 million metric tons). A decrease of 4.4% is expected for corn (growth of 3.9% in the first crop corn and a decrease of 7.3% in the second crop), with total production of 96.2 million metric tons (27.0 million metric tons of corn in the first crop and 69.1 million metric tons in the second).

The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented a positive change for all the Major Regions, with a highlight to the Central-West, with a growth of 10.4%. The regional distribution was as follows: Central-West (111.8 million metric tons), South (80.6 million metric tons), Southeast (24.1 million metric tons), Northeast (20.3 million metric tons) and North (10.1 million metric tons).

In the distribution of the production by Federation Units, Mato Grosso leads as the biggest national grain producer with a share of 27.1%, followed by Paraná (15.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (14.2%), Goiás (9.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.9%) and Minas Gerais (6.0%). These states together accounted for 80.9% of the national forecast. In relation to the participation of the Brazilian Regions, the distribution is as follows: Central-West (45.3%), South (32.6%), Southeast (9.8%), Northeast (8.2%) and North (4.1%).

Highlights in January 2020 estimates over December

In January, the highlights were changes in the following output estimates against December: beans 2nd crop (10.8%), cashew nuts (9.4%), corn 2nd crop (3.4%), sorghum (3.0%), corn 1st crop (2.1%), cassava (1.1%), bean 3rd crop (0.9%), soybean (0.8%) and bean 1st crop (0.5%). In the production of upland cotton there was decrease (-1.2%).

In relation to the absolute change, the positive highlights were corn 2nd crop (2.3 million metric tons), soybeans (974.1 thousand metric tons), cassava (204.5 thousand metric tons), bean 2nd crop (125.6 thousand metric tons), upland cotton (81.8 thousand metric tons), sorghum (77.4 thousand metric tons), corn 1st crop(58.1 thousand metric tons), cashew nuts (10.7 thousand metric tons), bean 1st crop (6.5 thousand metric tons) and bean 3rd crop (4.3 thousand metric tons).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production estimate was of 7.0 million metric tons, representing a decrease of 1.2% in relation to the last estimate made for 2020. The 1.3% reduction in the area to be harvested motivated the decrease. The states of Mato Grosso and Tocantins reduced their estimates of planted are by 1.8% and 6.2%, respectively.

Mato Grosso, the biggest national producer, responsible for 68.6% of the planted area and by 67.7% of production, which represents 1.2 million hectares and 4.7 million metric tons. Of this total, 86.6% is cultivated as the second crop, mainly after the soybean harvest. Despite the reduction in the monthly estimate, the production of 7.0 million metric tons represented a record. When compared to the previous year, the growth is of 1.6% in production, with increase of 5.8% in the planted area which reached 1.7 million hectares.

The fist estimates indicate a reduction of 4.0% in the productivity of crops in 2020, due to the possible lack of rainfall in some periods, whereas in 2019 there were excellent weather conditions for the crops. In the international market, the demand is still warm is a great part  of the crops has already been sold.

CASHEW NUTS - The production estimate grew 9.4% over the previous month, totaling 125.3 thousand metric tons, but a 10.1% decline is expected in relation to 2019. The biggest Brazilian producers are Ceará, Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte. The production of Ceará,of 70.3 thousand metric tons, represents 56.1% of the national total; Piauí's outcome, of 23.8 thousand metric tons, 19.0% and Rio Grande's, of 17.2 thousand metric tons, 13.7%.

In 2020, growths are expected of 10.2% for Piauí and 2.1% for Rio Grande do Norte; whereas Ceará estimated decline of 19.8%, since in the production calculation the yield average of the last 11 years encompasses several years of droughts. In the latter, the largest planted area is occupied with old and aged crops, which, year after year, were cut down and used as log wood. However, the dwarf cashew nut area has grown, thanks to the bodies related to research and extension of Ceará. Some programs for replacement of treetops and seedling distribution.

BEAN SEED - The production was estimated at 3.1 million metric tons. Compared to the 3rd Prognosis, the estimate of the planted area increases 0.7%, whereas the production estimate grew 4.6%, due to the 3.9% increase in the average yield. Considering the three harvests, the largest producers in this survey were Paraná with 24.3%, Minas Gerais with 16.0% and Goiás with 10.8% of participation in the national production. In relation to the 2019 crop, the total output of beans should be 1.7%, mostly due to the increase of 2.5% in the average yield, since the planted area a 2.5% reduction is expected.

The 1st crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, an increase of 0.5% over the 3rd Prognosis, which represents 6 460 metric tons. Positive highlights to Paraná, which had the production estimate increased by 0.3% (1,035 metric tons), and for Goiás, with a rise of 3.2% (3,258 metric tons).

The estimate for planted area also had an increase of 0.5% in Paraná and of 2.6% in Goiás. The annual comparison for this crop shows and increase of 3.8% in the production estimate, reflecting the positive change of 3.2% in the estimate f the area to be harvested. Another highlight to Paraná, which estimates a rise of 23.7% in the production estimate in relation to the previous year. In 2019, the crops from Paraná suffered with the droughts and high temperatures in the end of the cycle.

The bean 2nd crop was estimate with a high of 10.8% (125,625 metric tons) over the 3rd Prognosis, complying with the forecast of increase in the average yield which was of 10.6%. The estimate of the planted area dropped 0.2%. Paraná was the greatest responsible, increasing its production estimate by 32.3%, which represented 108,113 metric tons. Goiás estimated a rise of 12.2% in its production (8,736 metric tons), grounded on the increases of 3.9% in the average yield and of  8.0% in the planted area.

The production estimate of January for the 2nd crop was higher than that of 2019 by 10.1%. The Northeast Region influenced this result, since the expected production in Parabola (202.1%), Alagoas (85.7%) and Bahia (56.6%) increased. Paraná was also important in the preview of a 21.6% increase in production, grounded on a 32.1% rise in the average yield.

The 3rd crop of beans was expected to grow 0.9% in the production over the 3rd prognosis´s estimate, which represents 4,306 more metric tons. Mato Grosso is the state with the biggest influence in this result, because the estimate indicate rises of 2.7% in the planted area and of 2.9% in the production estimate, which represents 2,886 metric tons. The estimate is 19.7%, below that of 2019. The States of the Federation responsible for the decrease are: Minas Gerais (8.6%), São Paulo (57.8%) and Mato Grosso (28.9%).

CASSAVA (root)- The estimate of the production of cassava was of 19.4 million metric tons, representing a rise of 1.9% over the previous year. The major growths were estimated for Pará (4.4%), Amapá (14.9%), Tocantins (4.4%), Piauí (16.8%), Alagoas (6.7%), Paraná (10.4%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (19.0%). There were decreases in the estimates of Amazônia (-6.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.4%), Rondônia (-7.2%) and Ceará (-30.1%). Less attractive prices have been discouraging the planting and the harvesting of the roots, which end up remaining more time in the soil. Producers reduce the planting area, the technology used and restrict the harvest, leaving the product longer in the field to accumulate reserves and wait for better market conditions.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate grew 3.1% totaling 96.2 million metric tons, with reviews of the planted areas and average yield, increasing 0.8% and 2.3%, respectively. in relation to the previous year, production is 4.4 million metric tons below, with decrease of 5.6% in the average yield, and increases of 0.8% in the area to be planted and of 1.3 in the area to be harvested.

In the 1st crop of corn, the production reached 27.0 million metric tons, an increase of 2.1% over the previous month. Over 2019, the output was 3.9% bigger, with increment of 2.2% in the planted area and of 0.3% in the average yield. The area to be harvested grew 3.9%. Despite the competition with soybeans, which normally presents greater profitability, more appealing prices due to the great demand for the cereal encouraged producers to extend investment in the crops.

In Rio Grande do Sul, biggest corn producer in this crop, with the share of 21.8% in the total production , the estimate was 5.9 million metric tons, a growth of 2.6% in relation to the previous year. Minas Gerais, the second biggest producer, must harvest 4.7 million metric tons, a growth of 4.1%. The output of Rio Grande do Sul was estimated at 3.2 million metric tons, an increase of 2.8%. Other production rises were also seen in Santa Catarina (0.3%), Piauí (24.1%), Bahia (11.7%), Goiás (0.3%), Maranhão (22.4%) and Tocantins (12.3%).

For the 2nd crop, the production was of 69.1 million metric tons, 3.4% higher than in the previous month. The greatest growths in the production estimates, in relation to the previous year, are seen in Mato Grosso (6.8% or 1.9 million metric tons), Paraná (2.7% or 329.0 thousand metric tons) and Minas Gerais (24.9% or 528.4 thousand metric tons). But in the comparison with the previous year, the production of corn 2nd crop records a drop of 7.3%.

SOYBEANS - After a retraction seen in the production of the grain in 2019, a good harvest is expected in 2020. The production estimate for 2020 totaled 123.3 million metric tons, which  represents an increase of 8.7% over the previous crop. If confirmed, this volume will surpass the total reached in 2018. achieving a new record in the time series. The soybean production should represent half of the volume of the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2020. If confirmed, the 2.4% expansion in the harvested area, estimated at 36.7 million hectares, will be the highest recorded in the country, very much due to the commodity's good prices in the last months of 2019.

In the comparison with the prognosis of the month of December 2019, the estimate for the national production of soybeans presented growth of 0.8%, with the rise in the production estimate for the States of Mato Grosso (2.6%), Goiás (2.1%) and Tocantins (0.2%), whereas Maranhão (-3.6%), Paraná (-0.1%) and Minas Gerais (-0.1%) reported decrease in the production estimate.

Among the biggest national producers, Mato Grosso, which should account for 27.4% of the overall production in Brazil in 2020, expects to harvest 33.8 million metric tons, a growth of 4.9% over 2019. Paraná, second biggest national producer, is expected to be the State with th greatest gross production increase (22.5%), in relation to the previous year, totaling 19.8 million metric tons.  Rio Grande do Sul, with an estimate of increase in the production volume of 4.2% in the year must achieve 19.3 million metric tons - the third biggest production among the Federation Units.

SORGHUM (grain) - The estimated production reached 2.7 million metric tons, an increase of 3.0% in relation to the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested increased 2.1%,and there was growth of 0.8% in the average yield. The production should grow 3.2% in relation to the previous year, with a highlight to the average yield, which must grow 4.0%. The greatest growths in the production estimates, in relation to the previous year, are seen in Goiás (10.3%), Mato Grosso (28.7%), Minas Gerais (3.1%), Federal District (40.0%) and in Mato Grosso do Sul (10.9%). Together, Goiás and Minas Gerais must account for 77.7% of the Brazilian production of this cereal.