IPCA stays at 0.21% in January

February 07, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 10, 2020 03h49 PM

The Extended National Consumer Price Index - IPCA changed 0.21% in January, whereas it had risen 1.15% in December. This was the lowest result for January since the beginning of the Real Plan. The cumulative index over the last 12 months stayed at 4.19%, below the rate of 4.31% recorded in the immediately previous 12 months.  In January 2019, the rate had been 0.32%. This was the first release of the IPCA/INPC with the new weighting structure, updated from the Consumer Expenditure Survey - POF 2017-2018.

Period RATE
January 2020 0.21%
December 2019 1.15%
January 2019 0.32%
Cumulative in 12 months 4.19%

The biggest impact on the month´s index, 0.08 percentage points (p.p.), came from the group of Housing, which also registered the highest change (0.55%) among the nine groups of products and services surveyed. Other five groups also rose, highlighted by Food and beverages (0.39% of change and 0.07 p.p. of impact) and Transportation (0.32% of change and 0.06 p.p. of impact). On the drop side, the most intense negative contribution (-0.04 p.p.) came from Health and personal care (-0.32%). The other groups stood between the drop of 0.48% in Wearing apparel and the rise of 0.35% in Personal expenses.

IPCA - Change and Impact by Group - monthly
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
December January December January
Overall Index 1.15 0.21 1.15 0.21
Food and Beverages 3.38 0.39 0.83 0.07
Housing -0.82 0.55 -0.13 0.08
Household articles -0.48 -0.07 -0.02 0.00
Wearing apparel 0.00 -0.48 0.00 -0.02
Transportation 1.54 0.32 0.28 0.06
Health and Personal Care 0.42 -0.32 0.05 -0.04
Personal Expenses 0.92 0.35 0.10 0.04
Education 0.20 0.16 0.01 0.01
Communication 0.66 0.12 0.03 0.01
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

After dropping 0.82% in December, the group of Housing increased 0.55%, leveraged by the prices of condominium fees (1.39%) and residential rent (0.61%). Electricity, on its turn, registered a slight rise (0.16%), with the areas varying from the drop of 4.77% in Rio Branco – where the fare reduced by 4.67% from December 13 onwards - up to the rise of 3.41% in Goiânia. The yellow tariff flag was maintained in January, adding R$1.343 to the fare at each 100 kilowatt-hour consumed.

Still in Housing, the result of the item water and sewage fees (0.30%) was due to the adjustments of 18.00% in Belém (8.88%, in force since December 14), and of 6.43% in Campo Grande (5.23%, in force since January 3). On the other hand, the change in the item piped gas (0.64%) was due to the adjustment of 2.45% reported in Rio de Janeiro (2.14%), in force since January 1st. Concerning bottled gas (0.87%), it is worth highlighting that Petrobras announced and adjustment of 5.00% in the price of the 13-kg cylinder in the refineries, from December 27, 2019 onwards.

The deceleration in the group of Food and beverages (from 3.38% in December to 0.39% in January) was mainly due to the behavior of the meat prices. After rising 18.06% in December, meat retreated 4.03% in January, contributing to the most intense negative impact on the month´s index (-0.11 p.p.). As a result the group of food at home registered a rise of 0.20% against 4.69% in the December´s IPCA. On the side of the rises, the highlight was tomatoes (13.72%), whose prices had already risen 21.69% in the previous month, and potatoes (11.02%).

Food away from home (0.82%) also decelerated in relation to the previous month (1.04%). Meals changed from 1.31% in December to 1.05% in January andsnacks, from 0.94% to 0.42% in the same period.

In the group of Transportation (0.32%), the biggest positive impact (0.05 p.p.) came from gasoline (0.89%), though this change was lower than that in December (3.36%). Ethanol (2.59%) also decelerated in relation to the previous month (5.50%), taking the IPCA of fuels to 1.08%, below the rate of 3.57% recorded in December. The most intense negative impact (-0.05 p.p.) came from airfare (-6.75%), which had risen 15.62% in December.

Still in Transportation, the result of the item taxi (0.40%) was due to the adjustment of 2.20% in the fare in Rio de Janeiro (1.86%), in force since January 2. Intercity bus (1.18%), in turn, was adjusted in two regions: in Belo Horizonte (7.89%), the fare increased 8.89%, in force since December 29; in São Paulo (1.35%), the increases varied from 4.85% to 6.47% and were applied since January 26.

Urban bus fare (0.78%) was also adjusted in the following regions: Brasília (5.00%) - adjustment of 10.00% from January 13 onwards; Vitória (4.08%) - average adjustment of 5.43% since January 5; São Paulo (2.09%) - adjustment of 2.32% from January 1st onwards; Campo Grande (2.03%) - adjustment of 3.80% since December 28.

In Campo Grande, a legal injunction revoked the adjustment on January 9, though it went in force again on January 22.

The subway fare (1.74%) was also adjusted by 2.32% in São Paulo (2.09%) and by 10.00% in Brasília (5.00%). In São Paulo, the same percentage adjustment (2.32%) was applied to train fare (2.09%), directly influencing the result of the sub-item (1.31%).

The group of Health and personal care (-0.32%) deflated in January, mainly due to the items of personal hygiene (-2.07%). Having risen 5.14% in December, skin care products retreated 6.51% in January, contributing with -0.03 p.p. to the month´s index. In addition, the prices of toiletries (-4.66%) also dropped, contributing with -0.05 p.p. On the side of the rises, the highlights were health plan (0.60%) and pharmaceuticals (0.33%), which impacted 0.02 p.p. and 0.01 p.p. respectively.

The lowest regional result of the IPCA was in the municipality of Rio Branco (-0.21%), due to the drop in electricity (-4.77%). The metropolitan area of Belém and the municipality of Aracaju posted the highest change (0.39%). In the former case, due to the rises in acai (13.44%) and meals (3.24%). In the latter, the major impacts (0.08 p.p. and 0.07 p.p., respectively) came from gasoline (1.55%) and tomatoes (20.16%).

Region Regional Weight (%) Monthly Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
December January 12 months
Belém 3.94 1.78 0.39 5.61
Aracaju 1.03 1.09 0.39 4.21
Salvador 5.99 1.26 0.34 3.90
São Paulo 32.28 0.93 0.33 4.55
Recife 3.92 0.96 0.30 3.74
Vitória 1.86 0.85 0.29 3.31
Fortaleza 3.23 1.28 0.28 5.14
Belo Horizonte 9.69 1.05 0.20 3.68
Porto Alegre 8.61 1.15 0.17 4.18
Campo Grande 1.57 1.32 0.13 4.57
Goiânia 4.17 1.40 0.10 4.65
Curitiba 8.09 1.35 0.05 4.02
Rio de Janeiro 9.43 1.19 0.05 3.60
Brasília 4.06 1.62 -0.12 3.57
São Luís 1.62 1.47 -0.19 3.99
Rio Branco 0.51 0.60 -0.21 3.70
Brazil 100.00 1.15 0.21 4.19

The IPCA has been calculated by the IBGE since 1980. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília.

In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from December 28, 2019 to January 28,  2020 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from November 28 to December 27, 2019 (base).

INPC of January stays at 0.19%

The National Consumer Price Index - INPC changed 0.19% in January, whereas it had risen 1.22% in December. This result was the lowest result for January since the beginning of the Real Plan. Considering the last 12 months, the index was at 4.30%, below the rate of 4.48% recorded in the 12 immediately previous months. The rate had been 0.36% in January 2019.

Food products increased 0.45% in January, whereas they had registered 3.66% in December. The group of non-food products, in turn, changed 0.12%, whereas it had recorded 0.17% in December.

The metropolitan area of Belém (0.55%) posted the lowest index, mainly due to the rises in the items meals (3.24%) and acai (13.44%). Conversely, the lowest result was registered in the municipality of São Luís (-0.28%), influenced by the drops in the prices of meat 
(-3.29%) and toiletries (-5.75%).

Region Regional Weight (%) Monthly Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
December January 12 months
Belém 6.95 1.90 0.55 5.96
Aracaju 1.29 1.07 0.31 3.96
Salvador 7.92 1.23 0.31 3.93
Fortaleza 5.16 1.29 0.30 5.00
Belo Horizonte 10.35 1.08 0.27 3.86
Recife 5.60 0.97 0.25 3.45
Vitória 1.91 0.67 0.25 3.57
São Paulo 24.60 1.02 0.25 4.58
Porto Alegre 7.15 1.14 0.25 4.29
Campo Grande 1.73 1.38 0.16 4.61
Goiânia 4.43 1.62 0.06 5.05
Curitiba 7.37 1.49 -0.01 4.32
Brasília 1.97 1.36 -0.04 3.37
Rio Branco 0.72 0.61 -0.16 3.71
Rio de Janeiro 9.38 1.15 -0.17 3.57
São Luís 3.47 1.82 -0.28 3.99
Brazil 100.00 1.22 0.19 4.30

In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from December 28, 2019 to January 28,  2020 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from November 28 to December 27, 2019 (base).

The INPC has been calculated by the IBGE since 1979. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 5 minimum wages, with a salaried head of the household. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília.