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Producer Price Index - IPP rises 0.65% in December, closes 2019 at 5.19%

January 31, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 03, 2020 03h40 PM

The industrial prices changed 0.65% in December in relation to November, a figure below that reported between October and November (0.88%). In December, ten out of the 24 activities registered positive price changes, against 15 in the previous month. In 2019, the industrial prices accrued a rise of 5.19%.

Period Rate
December 2019 0.65%
November 2019 0.88%
December 2018 -1.56%
Cumulative in the year / 12 months 5.19%

Between November and December 2019, the prices of the mining and manufacturing industries – overall industry – changed 0.65%, a figure above that reported in the comparison between October and November (0.88%). The four highest changes in this comparison came from the products of the following activities: petroleum refining and ethanol products (3.82%), mining and quarrying industries (-2.52%), food (2.38%) and toiletries, soaps and cleaning products (2.28%).

The main influences were food (0.55 p.p.), oil refining and ethanol production (0.39 p.p.), other chemicals (-0.12 p.p.) and mining and quarrying industries (-0.12 p.p.).

The cumulative index in the year hit 5.19% against 4.52% up to November 2019. Among the activities that registered the biggest percentage changes in this indicator, the highlights were: petroleum refining and ethanol products (20.25%), mining and quarrying industries (13.59%), pulp and paper (-11.16%) and food (10.12%). On the other hand, the most influential sectors were: food (2.27 p.p.), oil refining and ethanol products (1.88 p.p.), mining and quarrying industries (0.57 p.p.) and other chemicals (-0.56 p.p.).

Producer Price Indexes, according to Mining and
Manufacturing Industries (Overall Industry) and Sections - Last three months
General Industry and Sections Changes (%)
M/M-1 Cumulative in the year M/M-12
OCT/19 NOV/19 DEC/19 OCT/19 NOV/19 DEC/19 OCT/19 NOV/19 DEC/19
General Industry 0.60 0.88 0.65 3.61 4.52 5.19 0.33 2.89 5.19
B - Mining and Quarrying Industries -4.76 4.86 -2.52 11.13 16.53 13.59 1.59 7.06 13.59
C - Manufacturing Industries 0.87 0.69 0.80 3.28 3.99 4.83 0.30 2.72 4.83
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

Among the major economic categories, the change of prices of 0.65% over November had the following distribution: 0.16% in capital goods; 0.18% in intermediate goods; and 1.39% in consumer goods, of which -0.14% in durable consumer goods and 1.71% in semi and non-durable consumer goods.  From the result of the overall industry, 0.65%, the influence of the major economic categories was the following: 0.01 p.p. of capital goods, 0.10 p.p. of intermediate goods and 0.54 p.p. of consumer goods. In the case of consumer goods, 0.55 p.p. was due to price changes observed in semi and non-durable consumer goods and -0.01 p.p. in durable consumer goods.

As to the cumulative index over the year (current month against December last year), price changes of industry reached, until December, a change of 5.19%, being 5.98% of capital goods (with influence of 0.44 p.p.), 2.89% of intermediate goods (1.58 p.p.) and 8.36% of consumer goods (3.17 p.p.). In this last case, the result was influenced by durable consumer goods (0.30 p.p.) and by semi and non-durable consumer goods (2.87 p.p.).

Producer Price Indexes, according to Mining and Manufacturing Industries (General Industry)
and Major Economic Categories - Last three months
General Industry and Sections Changes (%)
M/M-1 Cumulative in the year M/M-12
OCT/19 NOV/19 DEC/19 OCT/19 NOV/19 DEC/19 OCT/19 NOV/19 DEC/19
General Industry 0.60 0.88 0.65 3.61 4.52 5.19 0.33 2.89 5.19
Capital Goods (BK) 0.47 0.28 0.16 5.51 5.81 5.98 7.77 7.16 5.98
Intermediate Goods (BI) -0.01 0.32 0.18 2.38 2.71 2.89 -2.50 -0.18 2.89
Consumer Goods (BC) 1.50 1.78 1.39 5.00 6.87 8.36 3.41 6.88 8.36
Durable Consumer Goods (BCD) 0.91 0.45 -0.14 4.11 4.58 4.43 4.60 5.10 4.43
Semi and Non-durable Consumer Goods (BCND) 1.62 2.06 1.71 5.19 7.36 9.20 2.95 7.20 9.20
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

The following sectors stood out:

Mining and quarrying industries: this sector registered a negative change (-2.52%) in December 2019 over the previous month. The cumulative change in the last 12 months stayed at 13.59%. This activity stood out in the influences on the monthly indicator (-0.12 p.p. in 0.65%) and on the cumulative indicator over the last 12 months (0.57 p.p. in 5.19%) of the overall industry.

Food: in December, the prices of this sector changed, on average, 2.38%. With this result, the cumulative change in 2019 was of 10.12%, the highest value for a year closure for this activity since December 2015 (14.28%). It is worth mentioning that, in terms of the monthly cumulative indicator, a price rise is recorded since July 2019 (-0.31%).

Among the products, the highlights in terms of change were all from the group of "slaughtering and manufacture of meat products", being two of pork, one of poultry and the other of sausages. In terms of influence, of the four products that stood out (1.52 p.p. in 2.38%), three were from the same group as before ("frozen pork", "cooled or fresh meat" and "frozen poultry and giblets") and one from "manufacture of vegetable and animal oil and fat" ("residue of soybean oil extraction").

Oil refining and ethanol products: this sector closed 2019 with a positive change in the December prices in relation to the immediately previous month (3.82%). This was the eighth positive rate reported this year in this type of comparison, which caused the sector to close the year with a positive cumulative change of 20.25% in the average prices. Compared with those practiced in December 2018, this price increase was the highest absolute change in the mining and manufacturing industries. Among the products that mostly influenced the results were "diesel fuel", "gasoline, except for aviation", "ethyl alcohol (anhydrous or hydrated)" and "fuel oil, except diesel", all of them with positive price changes.

Other chemicals: the average change of the prices in this sector was -1.56% in December, the third consecutive negative change and the sixth one reported this year. In the cumulative index in 12 months – in December, this value will be the same as the cumulative rate in the year –, the change stayed at -6.38%, the sixth consecutive negative figure in this perspective. It is worth noticing that, in terms of index-number, October 2018 marked the peak of the time series (108.63), i.e., the index-number of 93.63 in December 2019 represented a drop in the prices of 15 percentage points in a 14-month period.

This activity showed two major groups responsible for the month´s result (December over November): the prices of the groups of "manufacture of inorganic chemicals" and "manufacture of resins and elastomers", the former with a change of -1.80% and the latter with a change of -3.12%. These two groups, on their turn, changed -13.00% and -9.94%, respectively, in the cumulative rate in 12 months, more intense negative changes than that reported in the result of the activity (-6.38% for the same period).

The four products that mostly influenced the activity, which together added up to -0.39 p.p. in -1.56% in the December/November comparison, were: "NPK-based manure and fertilizers", "fungicides for use in agriculture" and "polypropylene (PP)", all of them with negative figures, as well as "herbicides for agricultural use", with a positive figure.