IPCA: 1.15% in December and cumulative increase of 4.31% in 2019

January 10, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 10, 2020 04h17 PM

The Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) increased 1.15% in December, versus 0.51% registered in the previous month. That is the highest figure in a month of December since 2002, when the IPCA was 2.10%. In December 2018, the rate was 0.15%. Cumulative IPCA in the year changed by 4.31%, 0.56 percentage points above the 3,75% registered in 2018.

Period RATE
December 2019 1.15%
November 2019 0.51%
December 2018 0.15%
Cumulative in the year / 12 months 4.31%

The group Food and beverages recorded the biggest change, 3.38%, and the main impact, 0.83 percentage points amog the nine groups of products and services surveyed. Other six groups also recorded increases in December, the main ones being Transportation (1.54%) and Personal expenses (0.92%). The main negative contribution came from Housing (-0.13 p.p.), with a change of -0.82% in the month. The other groups ranes between the decrease in Housegold articles  (0.48%) and the increase in Communication (0.66%). 

IPCA - Change and Impact by Group - Monthly
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
November December November December
General index 0.51 1.15 0.51 1.15
Food and beverages 0.72 3.38 0.18 0.83
Housing 0.71 -0.82 0.11 -0.13
Household articles -0.36 -0.48 -0.01 -0.02
Wearing apparel 0.35 0.00 0.02 0.00
Transportation 0.30 1.54 0.05 0.28
Health and Personal care 0.21 0.42 0.03 0.05
Personal expenses 1.,24 0.92 0.13 0.10
Education 0.08 0.20 0.00 0.01
Communication -0.02 0.66 0.00 0.03
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

After acceleration observed from October (0.05%) to November  (0.72%), the group Food and beverages recorded an increase of  3.38% in December, the biggest monthly change since December 2002, when the index of the group was 3.91%. That result was mainly affected by the price of meats (18.06%), which accounted for the main individual impact on the December IPCA (0.52 p.p.). The prices of whole chicken (5.08%) and fish (2.37%) also rose, as well that of other food products, such as pinto beans (23.35%) and tomato (21.69%). In terms of decreases, the highlights are onion (-8.76%) and bread rolls (-0.68%), both with a contribution of -0.01 p.p.

Food away from home (1.04%) also accelerated against the previous month (0.21%), influenced by the hikes in meals (1.31%) and snacks (0.94%).

The result of  Transportation (1.54%) was due to the rise of fuels (3.57%), the main highlights being gasoline (3.36%) and ethanol (5.50%). Except for the municipality of São Luís (-0.53%), all the areas surveyed recorded a positive change in the prices of gasoline, which ranged between 1.78% in the metropolitan area of Salvador and 5.71% in the municipality of Aracaju.

Also in the Transportation group, air fares, which had risen by 4.35% in the previous month, recorded an increase of 15.62% in December, and accounted for 0.07 p.p. of the monthly index. In terms of the item interstate buses (3.28%), the highlight is the average adjustment of 14.00% in fares in Salvador (7.30%), from December 5 on. Intercity buses (0.25%), had an average price rise of 4.00% in Belém (4.42%), in effect since November and observed in the index since December.

The group Personal expenses (0.92%) was also influenced by the rise of gambling (12.88%), with price adjustments in the placing of bets, in effect since November 10th. 

The decrease observed in Housing (-0.82%) was due to the item electricity (-4,24%), due to the change of the tariff flag. In November the red tariff flag was in effect, resulting in an increase by R$ 4,169 per kilowatt/hour consumed. In December, the yellow flag was in effect, with a total R$ 1,343 charged on each 100 kilowatt/hour. In addition to that, electricity costs were reduced in two areas: Porto Alegre (-7.56%), by 6.00% in one of the concessionaires surveyed, from November 22 on; and Rio Branco (-3.81%), where fares were reduced by 4.67%, starting on December 13.

Also in terms of Housing, the result of the item water and sewage fares (0.26%) were due to price adjustments in of 18.00% in Belém (8.42%), in effect since December 14, and 3.43% in Curitiba (1.46%), in effect since November 11. With reference to bottled gas (0.08%), it is worth mentioning that Petrobras announced a price adjustment of 5.00% in the 13 g bottle, in refineries, on the 27th of December.

As for regional indexes, the biggest change was that of the metropolitan area of Belém (1.78%), mainly due to the rise in the prices of meats (15.23%). The lowest result was registered in the municipality of Rio Branco (0.60%), following the decrease in electricity (-3.81%) and also due to a smaller increase in meats (7.67%) against the other areas surveyed.

IPCA - Change by area - monthly and cumulative in 12 months 
Area Regional Weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
November December Year
Belém 4,23 0,93 1,78 5,51
Brasília 2,80 0,38 1,62 3,76
São Luís 1.87 1.05 1.47 4.28
Goiânia 3.59 0.70 1.40 4.37
Curitiba 7.79 0.61 1.35 3.99
Campo Grande 1.51 0.65 1.32 4.65
Fortaleza 2.91 0.22 1.28 5.01
Salvador 6.12 0.23 1.26 3.93
Rio de Janeiro 12.06 0.17 1.19 4.05
Porto Alegre 8.40 0.47 1.15 4.08
Aracaju 0.79 0.14 1.09 4.11
Belo Horizonte 10,86 0,46 1,05 4,20
Recife 4.20 0.14 0.96 3.71
São Paulo 30.67 0.70 0.93 4.60
Vitória 1.78 0.39 0.85 3.29
Rio Branco 0.42 0.72 0.60 3.82
Brazil 100.00 0.51 1.15 4.31

The IPCA has been calculated by the IBGE since 1980. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília.

In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from November 28 to December 27,  2019 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from October 29 to November 27, 2019 (base).

In December, INPC increased 1.22%, with a cumulative 4.48% in 2019

The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) of December increased 1.22%, against 0.54% in November. That result was the highest in December  since 2020, when the index was 2.70%. In December 2018, the rate was 0.14%.

Food products rose 3.66% in December, whereas, in the previous month, the result was 0.78%. The group of non-food products recorded a change of 0.17%, versus 0.44% in November.

As for indexes by area, the municipality of Rio Branco (0.61%) recorded the lowest result, due to the decrease in the item electricity (-4.12%) and also recorded reduced increase in meats (7.59%), in comparison with other areas covered by the survey. The highest result was that of the metropolitan area of Belém (1.90%), due, to a great extent, to the hike of meat process (14.45%).

INPC - Change by area - monthly and cumulative in 12 months 
Area Regional Weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
November December Year
Belém 6.44 0.96 1.90 5.76
São Luís 3.11 1.05 1.82 4.45
Goiânia 4.15 0.84 1.62 4.90
Curitiba 7.29 0.64 1.49 4.31
Campo Grande 1.64 0.72 1.38 4.76
Brasília 1.88 0.41 1.36 3.52
Fortaleza 5.42 0.34 1.29 4.96
Salvador 8.75 0.21 1.23 3.85
Rio de Janeiro 9.51 0.09 1.15 4.07
Porto Alegre 7.38 0.41 1.14 4.11
Belo Horizonte 10.60 0.42 1.08 4.45
Aracaju 1.29 0.17 1.07 4.13
São Paulo 24.24 0.83 1.02 4.89
Recife 5.88 0.09 0.97 3.59
Vitória 1.83 0.37 0.67 3.63
Rio Branco 0.59 0.78 0.61 3.74
Brazil 100.00 0.54 1.22 4.48

In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from November 28 to December 27,  2019 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from October 29 to November 27, 2019 (base).

The INPC has been calculated by the IBGE since 1979. It refers to households with monthly income from 01 to 05 minimum wages, with a salaried head of household.   It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília.

IPCA had a cumulative increase of 4.31% in 2019

IPCA closed 2019 with a change of 4.31%, 0.56 p.p. above the 3.75% in 2018.

IPCA - Month, quarter and year
Month Change (%)
Month Quarter Year
January 0.32   0.32
February 0.43   0.75
March 0.75 1.51 1.51
April 0.57   2.09
May 0.13   2.22
June 0.01 0.71 2.23
July 0.19   2.42
August 0.11   2.54
September -0.04 0.26 2.49
October 0.10   2.60
November 0.51   3.12
December 1.15 1.77 4.31

The result of 2019 was mainly influenced by the group Food and beverages, which recorded an increase of 6.37% and an impact of 1.57 p.p. cumulative in the year. Then followed  Transportation (3.57%) and Health and personal care (5.41%), with 0.66 p.p. and 0.65 p.p., respectively. The only group to record negative change (-0.36%) and impact (-0.01 p.p.) was Household articles. The table below shows the result for all the groups of products and services.

IPCA - Cumulative change and impact by group - 2019 and 2018
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
2018 2019 2018 2019
Overall Index  3.75 4.31 3.75 4.31
Food and beverages  4.04 6.37 0.99 1.57
Housing 4.72 3.90 0.74 0.62
Household articles  3.74 -0.36 0.15 -0.01
Wearing apparel  0.61 0.74 0.04 0.04
Transportation 4.19 3.57 0.76 0.66
Health and Personal care  3.95 5.41 0.48 0.65
Personal expenses  2.98 4.67 0.33 0.51
Education 5.32 4.75 0.26 0.23
Communication -0.09 1.07 0.00 0.04
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

In the group Food and beverages (6.37%), there was price acceleration in the first three months of the year (0.90% in January, 0.78% in February and 1.37% in March) and, once again,  in the last two months of 2019 (0.72% in November and 3.38% in December). The factors leading to such increases are different, nevertheless. 

In the beginning of the year, the most significant increases were observed in the prices of some cereals, such as pinto beans, which recorded an increase of 105.0% in Q1; in November and December, the highlight was meats, whose cumulative change in the year was 32.40%, the biggest part of that rise concentrated in the last two months (27.61%).

IPCA - Food products - Main increases in 2019
Item 2018 2019
Change (%) Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
Meats 2.25 32.40 0.86
Food away from home 2.38 3.14 0.16
Snacks away from home 4.35 6.04 0.13
Pinto beans  4.55 55.99 0.09
Fruit 14.10 7.25 0.07
Whole chicken  4.08 12.21 0.06
Chicken pieces  6.44 15.26 0.06
Long-life milk  8.43 6.05 0.05
Processed meat  0.35 5.24 0.04
Eggs -4.03 14.73 0.03
Garlic -10.81 33.50 0.03
Soybean oil -0.51 8.81 0.02
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

Some items, on the other hand, recorded change of prices in the year:

IPCA - Alimentação - Principais quedas em 2019
Item 2018 2019
Change (%) Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
Tomato 71.76 -30.45 -0.10
Ground coffee  -8.22 -7.39 -0.03
Manioc flour  -13.26 -12.17 -0.02
Onion 36.71 -9.22 -0.01
Chocolate bar and candy -1.49 -7.46 -0.01
Powdered milk 4.10 -3.50 -0.01
Carrot 12.59 -14.01 -0.01
Cheese 4.17 -1.25 -0.01
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

In Transportation (3.57%), the biggest contributions came from urban buses (6.64%) and gasoline (4.03%), both with 0.18 p.p. All the areas recorded price rises for this fuel, ranging between 1.74% in Rio Branco and 8.58% in São Luís.

Concerning Health and personal care (5.41%), the highlight was, once more, the item health insurance (8.24%), which accounted for 0.34 p.p. in the year’s result. The National Regulatory Agency for Private Health Insurance and Plans (ANS) granted, in 2019, a price adjustment of up to 7.35% in the fares of individual health insurance plans.

In the group Housing (3.90%), the biggest impact (0.19 p.p.) came from electricity, with a cumulative increase of 5.00% in 2019, despite the decrease in four months of the year.

Variations were mainly due to changes in the tariff flag. Since November new figures have been in effect in the yellow tariff flag (R$ 1,343), as well as in red – level 1 (R$ 4,169) and red – level 2 (R$ 6,243), per each 100 kw/h consumed.

IPCA - Electricity - tariff flags per month
Month Monthly Change  Tariff Flag Additional charge per each 100 kwh consumed
January -0.13% Green  -
February 1.14% Green  -
March 0.04% Green  -
April 0.10% Green  -
May 2.18% Yellow R$ 1.50
June -1.11% Green  -
July 4.48% Yellow R$ 1.50
August 3.85% Red 1 R$ 4.00
September 0.00% Red 1 R$ 4.00
October -3.22% Yellow R$ 1.50
November 2.15% Red 1 R$ 4.169
December -4.24% Yellow R$ 1.343
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

The negative change in Household articles (-0.36%) in 2019 was due to fall in the prices of items in TV, sound and computer equipment (-4.41%) and furniture (-1.21%).

In the remaining groups, the highlights are: jewelry (11.66%) in Apparel (0.74%); games of chance (40.36%) in Personal expenses (4,67%); regular courses (4,97%) in Education (4.75%) and cell phone plans (1,89%) in Communication (1.07%).

By area, Belém (5.51%) recorded the biggest increase, influenced by the hike of meats (35.11%), which contributed with 1.78 p.p. to the result of the area.  The lowest rate was that of the metropolitan area of Vitória (3.29%), with decrease in electricity (-6.09%), the most significant among the areas surveyed.

 

IPCA - Areas - 2019 and 2018
Area Regional Weight
(%)
Annual change (%)
2018 2019
Belém 6.12 3.00 5.51
Fortaleza 10.86 2.90 5.01
Campo Grande 8.40 2.98 4.65
São Paulo 4.20 3.68 4.60
Goiânia 30.67 3.14 4.37
São Luís 3.59 2.65 4.28
Belo Horizonte 1.87 4.00 4.20
Aracaju 2.80 2.64 4.11
Porto Alegre 4.23 4.62 4.08
Rio de Janeiro 0.42 4.30 4.05
Curitiba 12.06 3.38 3.99
Salvador 1.78 4.04 3.93
Rio Branco 1.51 3.44 3.82
Brasília 0.79 3.06 3.76
Recife 2.91 2.84 3.71
Vitória 7.79 4.19 3.29
Brazil 100.00 3.75 4.31
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

INPC has cumulative increase of 4.48% in 2019

INPC closed 2019 with a cumulative change of 4.48%, above the 3.43% of 2018 by 1.05 p.p. Food products rose 6.84%, and non-food products, 3.48%. In 2018, the group Food and beverages had had an increase of 3.82%, and non-food products, of 3.25%.

INPC - Cumulative change and impact by group - 2019 and 2018
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
2018 2019 2018 2019
Overall Index  3.43 4,48 3.43 4.48
Food and beverages  3.82 6.84 1.15 2.07
Housing 4.48 3.86 0.82 0.71
Household articles 3.36 -0.60 0.16 -0.03
Wearing apparel  0.64 0.51 0.05 0.04
Transportation 4.50 4.38 0.71 0.70
Health and personal care 1.97 4.90 0.19 0.49
Personal expenses  2.54 4.56 0.19 0.34
Education 5.34 4.63 0.17 0.14
Communication -0.40 0.69 -0.01 0.02
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

As for regional indexes, the highest one was that of Belém (5.76%), where meats rose 34.73% and acontributed with 2.07 p.p. to the overall result of the area. The lowest index was that of Brasília (3.52%), as a result of decreases in the prices of tomato (-34.28%) and of the item electricity (-2.79%). See below the cumulative indexes bt area surveyed. 

INPC - Areas - 2019 and 2018
Area Weihht by Area
(%)
Annual change (%)
2018 2019
Belém 6.44 2.59 5.76
Fortaleza 5.42 2.69 4.96
Goiânia 4.15 2.88 4.90
São Paulo 24.24 3.54 4.89
Campo Grande 1.64 2.57 4.76
São Luís* 3.11 2.37 4.45
Belo Horizonte 10.60 3.63 4.45
Curitiba 7.29 3.33 4.31
Aracaju* 1.29 2.32 4.13
Porto Alegre 7.38 4.56 4.11
Rio de Janeiro 9.51 4.17 4.07
Salvador 8.75 3.70 3.85
Rio Branco* 0.59 3.73 3.74
Vitória 1.83 3.96 3.63
Recife 5.88 2.30 3.59
Brasília 1.88 2.24 3.52
Brazil 100.00 3.43 4.48
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços