Industrial output falls 1.2% in November

January 09, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 14, 2020 03h55 PM

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the industrial sector fell 1.2% in November 2019 in relation to October. The output of the four major economic categories and in 16 out of the 26 activities surveyed dropped in this comparison. The drop of 1.2% offsets part of the cumulative expansion of 2.2% in the August-October period of 2019. With these results, the industrial sector was 17.1% below the record level reached in May 2011.

Period Industrial output
November / October 2019 -1.2%
November 2019 / November 2018 -1.7%
Cumulative in 2019 -1.1%
Cumulative in 12 months -1.3%
Quarterly moving average -0.1%

Quarterly moving average

-0.1%

Compared with November 2018, the industry overall retreated 1.7%, interrupting two months of consecutive positive figures: September (1.1%) and October (1.1%). As a result, the industrial sector accrues a drop of 1.1% in the year.

The cumulative indicator in 12 months declined 1.3% in November 2019, repeating the results of September and October.

With the loss of pace of the industrial activity in November, the quarterly moving average index registered a negative rate (-0.1%) and interrupted the upward trend started in July 2019.

Industrial Output Indicators by Major Economic Category Brazil - November 2019
Major Economic Categories Change (%)
November 2019/
October 2019*
November 2019/
November 2018
Cumulative 
January-November
Cumulative in the Last 12 Months
Capital Goods -1.3 -3.1 0.2 -0.2
Intermediate Goods -1.5 -2.8 -2.2 -2.3
Consumer Goods -1.3 1.0 1.1 0.7
  Durable -2.4 0.7 2.0 0.9
  Semi-durable and Non-durable -0.5 1.1 0.8 0.6
Overall Industry -1.2 -1.7 -1.1 -1.3
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria 
*Seasonally-adjusted series

In the retreat of 1.2% of the industrial activity between October and November 2019, the major negative influences were registered by the activities of food products (-3.3%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-4.4%) and mining and quarrying industries (-1.7%), the first eliminating most of the expansion reported last month (3.6%); the second stepping up the loss of 0.4% reported in October 2019; and the last one accruing a retreat of 4.6% in three consecutive months of output drops. Other relevant negative contributions came from other chemicals (-1.5%), machinery and equipment (-1.6%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-5.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (-1.8%), non-metallic mineral products (-1.8%) and basic metals (-1.1%).

Except for basic metals, which recorded the sixth consecutive negative rate and accrued a loss of 8.0% in this period, the others had increased last October: 1.1%, 1.8%, 1.1%, 2.6% and 2,3%, respectively. Among the ten sectors that increased the production this month, the most important performances for the global average were registered by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.6%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (24.0%) and rubber and plastic products (2.5%). With the results this month, the first sector recovered part of the cumulative loss of 3.2% in the September-October 2019 period; the second expanded 42.5% in two consecutive months of increasing production, after declining 27.0% in September 2019; and the last one offset the drop of 0.5% reported last month.

Still comparing with the immediately previous month, durable consumer goods retreated 2.4% and posted the sharpest drop in November 2019, influenced, to a great extent, by the smaller production of cars. It is worth highlighting that this result eliminated part of the cumulative gain of 3.9% in the September-October 2019 period. The segments of intermediate goods (-1.5%), capital goods (-1.3%)and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.5%) also registered negative rates this month, the first interrupting three consecutive months of increasing production, a period in which it expanded 1.8%; the second increasing once again, after advancing 0.4% in the previous month; and the last one eliminating part of the cumulative gain of 1.8% in the months of September and October 2019.

The evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the whole industry recorded a negative change of 0.1% in the quarter ended in November 2019 against the previous month, thus interrupting the upward trend started in July 2019. Among the major economic categories, capital goods (-0.4%) and intermediate goods (-0.4%) posted the negative results in November 2019, the former maintaining the predominantly negative behavior started in July 2019 and accruing a reduction of 1.1% in this period; and the latter interrupting the upward trend started in June 2019. On the other hand, the segments of durable consumer goods (0.5%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) registered the advances in November 2019, both of them maintaining the upward trend started in August 2019.

Compared with the same month last year, the industrial sector dropped 1.7% in November 2019, with negative figures in two out of the four major economic categories, 18 out of the 26 sectors, 43 out of the 79 groups and 53.8% of the 805 products surveyed. It is worth mentioning that November 2019 (20 days) had the same number of business days as the same month a year ago (20). Among the activities, mining and quarrying industries (-8.9%) and basic metals (-8.4%) exerted the major negative influences over the industry average, pressed, to a large extent, by the smaller manufacture of items iron ore, in the first; and uncoated hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel carbon coils, carbon steel bars, stainless steel galvanized coils or plates, cast iron artifacts and miscellaneous pieces, unwrought gold, carbon steel steel wire and carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates, in the second.

The sectors of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-2.3%), pulp, paper and paper products (-5.5%), other chemicals (-3.5%), food products (-1.2%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-12.0%) and toiletries, soaps, cleaning and personal hygiene products (-6.8%) recorded negative contributions. Among the eight activities that expanded the output in the comparison with November 2018, the major influences on the whole industry were registered by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (5.4%) and beverages (6.7%). Other important positive impacts were recorded by the sectors of printing and reproduction of recorded media (21.0%), miscellaneous manufacturing (12.5%) and machinery and equipment (2.0%).

Still comparing with the same month in the previous year, capital goods (-3.1%) and intermediate goods (-2.8%) posted the retreats among the major economic categories in November 2019. On the other hand, the segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.1%) and durable consumer goods (0.7%) registered the positive figures this month.

In the cumulative index for January-November 2019 against the same period a year ago, the industry declined 1.1%, with negative figures in one out of the four major economic categories, 16 out of the 26 sectors, 41 out of the 79 groups and 54.9% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, mining and quarrying industries (-9.5%) exerted the biggest negative influence on the industry average, pressed, to a great extent, by the item iron ore. It is also worth highlighting the negative contributions reported by: pulp, paper and paper products (-3.9%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-9.1%), basic metals (-2.2%), other transportation equipment (-9.3%), wood products (-5.7%), rubber and plastic products (-1.8%) and pharmo-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-2.4%). Among the nine activities that increased the output, the major influences on the whole industry were recorded by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.4%), food products (1.4%), fabricated metal products (5.1%), beverages (3.9%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.0%).

Among the major economic categories, the profile of results for the 11 months of 2019 showed less dynamism for intermediate goods (-2.2%), pressed, above all, by the reduction reported in mining and quarrying industries (-9.5%), mainly explained by the effects of the collapse of a mine waste dam in the region of Brumadinho (MG) in January 2019. On the other hand, the sector producer of durable consumer goods (2.0%) posted the sharpest rise, leveraged, to a great extent, by the increased manufacture of white goods (11.9%).