In November, the second estimate for the 2020 harvest points to a record figure of 240.9 million metric tons, with an increase of 33.6 thousand metric tons (0.0%) against 2019.
The initial estimates indicate a reduction in the output of milk by 7.5% (7.5 million metric tons) and an increase of 6.7% in the production of soybeans (7.6 million metric tons).

Among the five most relevant products in this harvest, decrease is expected for: corn - 2nd crop (-9.8%), corn - 1st crop (-0.8%) and beans - 1st crop (-0.3%), whereas positive changes, for :  cotton (2.0%), rice (1.0%) and soybeans (6.7%). In terms of area, the positive changes are: cotton (6.4%), soybeans (1.8%), corn - 1st crop (0.5%) and corn - 2nd crop (0.3%). Reduction of area is expected for beans - 1st crop (-0.3%) and rice (-2.1%). See the support material for the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) for further information.

 UPLAND COTTON (seed) - The production estimate for 2020 estimated an output of 7.0 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.0% against the 2019 harvest. Planted area (1.7 million hectares) is expected to increase by 6.4%.  The 2020 harvest is estimated to have an average yield of 4,062 Kg/ha, 4.1% below the figure a year ago.

Regarding the estimate for the previous year, there was an increase of 2.%, as a result of the expansion of planted area (1.9%) and of average yield (0.2%).  The most significant increase must take place in Mato Grosso (2.8% or 130.5 thousand metric tons), and the state must account for 68.3% of the output, a total 4.8 million metric tons.

PADDY RICE – The output estimate for 2020 is 10.4 million metric tons, representing an increase of 1.0% against 2019. The average yield is expected to increase by 3.2%, to 6,300 kg/ha, wheres planted area must fall by 3.0%.

Against the previous year, the output estimate fell by 0.6%, with a drop in planted area by 1.2%, despite the increase of 0.6% in average yield.  In November, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul reevaluated their outputs by 14,1% and 18.3%, respectively, with decreases of 60,379 and 11,116 metric tons, respectively. 

Rio Grande do Sul, the main rice producer in Brazil, is expected to account for 70.3% of the total output.  The output of Rio Grande do Sul was estimated at 7.3 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.2% against 2019.  Planted area fell by 2.7%, whereas the average yield had an estimated increase of 3.5%, or 7,678 kg/ha.  As the second biggest national producer, Santa Catarina had an estimated  output of 1.1 million metric tons and an average yield of 7,470 kg/ha, with an increase of 0.6% in relation to the 2019 harvest.

BEAN (seed) - The 2020 harvest was estimated at 2.9 million metric tons, with a decrease of 6.0% against 2019. Beans - 1st crop is expected to produce 1.3 million metric tons; 2nd crop, 1.1 million metric tons; 3rd crop - 455.3 thousand metric tons.  The area to be harvested in the summer harvest (1st crop) must reach 1.6 million hectares, with a decrease of 2.3% against 2019, whereas the average yield, of 846 kg/ha, is expected to decrease by 0.1%.

CORN (grain) - The second forecast of corn grain for 2020 estimated an output of 92.7 million metric tons, with a decrease (7.5%) against the 2019 harvest, by a total 7.5 million metric tons.  A trend to a bigger output volume is maintained for corn - 2nd crop, which is expected to account for 72.3% of the national output in 2020, versus 27.7% of participation in the 1st crop of corn.

The forecast for the first crop of corn is 25.7 million metric tons, 0.8% less than in the same period of 2019.  For the second crop of corn, the output estimate is of 67.0 million metric tons, with a 9.8% decline versus the 2019 figure, despite the increase of 0.3% in the area to be harvested

SOYBEAN (grain) - The third output estimate for 2020 amounted to 120.8 million metric tons, an increase of 6.7% against the figure in 2019.  The area to be planted is 36.5 million hectares, an increase of 1.8%. The estimated average yield is 3,315 kg/ha, an increase of 4.8%.

Among the main producers, Mato Grosso, which must account for 27.3% of the total, estimates a harvest of 33.0 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.2% versus 2019, as a result of the expansion of the area to be planted (by 2.2%).  As the second main producer and accounting for 16.4% of the national overall, Paraná has an estimated output increase of 22.5%, due to the rise of average yield (21.7%). Rio Grande do Sul, the third main producer, has an estimated output of 19.2 million metric tons, with an increase of 3.6% in relation to 2019.

For Goiás, the estimated output is 11.3 million metric tons, 4.9% bigger. in second place comes Mato Grosso do Sul, with 9.5 million metric tons (11.1%), Minas Gerais, with 5.7 million (9.7%), Bahia, with 5.4 million (2.9%), Maranhão, with 3.2 million (10.8%) and Tocantins, with 2.8 million (7.5%).  For Piauí, the estimated output was 2.2 million metric tons, with a decrease by 5.5%.

November estimate: 2019 harvest expected to increase by 6.4% against 2019

In November, the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2019 reached 240.9 million metric tons, a new record for the output of grain in the country, 6.4% above the figure recorded in 2018 (226.5 million metric tons) and stable (0.0%) in comparison with the figure released in October (60.6 thousand metric tons more).  The estimate for the area to be harvested was of 63.2 million hectares, 3.7% above that of 2018 (2.2 million hectares more) and 0.1% above the estimate for the previous month (31.8 thousand metric tons more).  The previous record was that of the 2017 harvest, with 238.4 million metric tons of grain.

Rice, corn and soybeans accounted for 92.9% of the estimated output and for 87.0% of the area to be harvested.  In relation to 2018, there was an increase by 7.0% in the area for corn, by 2.6%%, for soybeans, and by 41.7% in the area for cotton. The area for rice recorded a decrease (9.5%).  On the output side, soybeans dropped 4.0%, rice, 12.0%; corn increased 23.2% and cotton, 39.8%.

Among the Major Regions, the output volume for cereals legumes and oilseeds was distributed as follows: Central West, 111.3 million metric tons; South, 77.3 million metric tons; Southeast, 23.4 million metric tons; Northeast, 19.1 million metric tons and North, 9.8 million metric tons.  Compared with 2018, there were increases of 9.3% in the North Region, 10.2% in the Central-West, 3.7% in the South and 0.2% in the Northeast, and a decrease of 2.3% in the Southeast. Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso was the leader as the main national producer of grains, with a share of 28.0%.

NOVEMBER ESTIMATES

The most significant changes in the output estimate were those of  Pará (58,579 t), Mato Grosso (45,680 t), Mato Grosso do Sul (23,662 t), Tocantins (15,620 t), Goiás (9,009 t), Maranhão (7,384 t), Minas Gerais (2,133 t), Ceará (-1,740 t), Piauí (6,325 t), Alagoas (-17,103 t), Paraíba (-21,686 t) and Paraná (-53,100 t).

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The winter Brazilian harvest was estimated at 6,592,364 metric tons, with wheat accounting for 79.8% of the total or 5,258,273 metric tons; oat, for 14.1% or 928.534 metric tons, and barley, for 6.1% or 405.557 metric tons.

Regarding wheat, there was a drop of 0.9% in the output in relation to the previous month. Paraná, the second biggest producer, had 2.1 million metric tons, a fall of 2.0% against last month. Rio Grande do Sul remained stable, with the same output estimate as in the previous month. In the Southeast Region, Minas Gerais estimated 253.0 thousand metric tons, increasing 1.0% compared with last month. In the Central West, Mato Grosso do Sul reported a retraction of 8.2% in the output, a drop of 9.0% in the average yield.

The wheat output in 2019 is 0.9% lower than in 2018, with a drop of 45.5 thousand metric tons (0.9%). Rio Grande do Sul output was estimated in 2.3 million metric tons, an increase of 32.2% in relation to 2018, making this state the biggest national producer.

The estimate for the oat output was 928.5 thousand metric tons, decreasing 1.1% in relation to the previous month. Harsh weather conditions, with an excess of cold and frosts, did not spare the South Region’s crops. However, compared with the previous year, the output estimate of oat records an increase of 4.3%, with rises of 3.6% in the planted area, of 3.3% in the harvested area, and of 1.0% in the average yield.

For barley, the output estimate was of 405.6 thousand metric tons, a decrease of 0.7% in relation to the previous month. The area to be harvested reached 111.6 thousand hectares, an increase of 11.1%, and the average yield, of 3,634 kg/ha, dropped 0.7%. Compared with the previous year, the output estimate of barley shows a 24.8% rise. Paraná reported an output estimate of 241.5 thousand metric tons, a fall of 1.1% against the previous month, due to the average yield that dropped in the same amount. The output of Rio Grande do Sul is 148.0 thousand metric tons. 

BEAN SEED – In relation to the total output of bean, the comparison with October shows that there were declines of 0.8% in the harvested area estimate and of 0.7% in the output, and an increase of 0.2% in the average yield. The estimate output was 3.0 million metric tons. Compared to 2018, the total output of bean was 2.2% higher.

The 1^st crop of bean was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, a retraction of 0.6% in the output against October. In the Northeast Region there was a decrease of 1.8% in relation to the previous month. The annual comparison for the 1^st crop recorded a reduction of 14.4% in the output, resulting in negative changes of 11.5% in the harvested area and of 3.3% in the average yield.

The production of the 2^nd crop, of 1.1 million metric tons, was higher than 2018 in 15.7%, despite the retraction of 4.6% in the harvested area. The states with the highest output estimate for the crop were: Paraná (31.4%), Minas Gerais (17.3%), Mato Grosso (10.6%) and Bahia (10.1%).

For the 3^rd crop of beans, the prospect is of a decrease of 0.5% in the output,compared to October. Mato Grosso do Sul reported a reduction of 29.1% in the output estimate. However, the output is 27.5% higher than in 2018, with increases in São Paulo (31.0%), Paraná (48.0%) and Minas Gerais (8.9%).

CORN (grain) – Comparing with the last report, the output remained stable, reaching 100.2 million metric tons, a new record in the IBGE’s time series. In relation to the previous year, the output estimate is 23.2% higher, an increase of 15.1% in the average yield, of 6.3% in the planted area and of 7.0% in the harvested area.

In the 1^st crop of corn, the production reached 25.9 million metric tons, a decrease of 0.1% against the previous report. Compared to 2018, the output was 0.6% higher. In November, the states with revised output figures were: Pará (1.9%), Maranhão (0.1%), Piauí (-0.4%), Rio Grande do Norte (-2.3%), Paraíba (-27.7%), Rio de Janeiro (-15.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-1.7%), Mato Grosso (-0.1%) and Goiás (-0.3%).

For the 2^nd crop, the output was 74.3 million metric tons, with a drop of only 12.1 thousand metric tons in relation to the previous month. The output is concentrated in four states, which, together,  account for 87.0% of the 2^nd crop: Mato Grosso (42.0% of the total), Paraná (18.1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (13.2%) and Goiás (13.7%). This volume in the output of corn 2^nd crop is a record in the IBGE’s time series.

SOYBEAN (grain) – The estimated output was of 113.2 million metric tons, an increase of 0.1% in relation to the previous month. The legumes harvest is completed in most of the Federation Units. In November, the output of Mato Grosso do Sul increased by 1.0%, reporting a planted and harvested area 0.7% higher. The output was of 8.5 million metric tons. Mato Grosso (0.1%) and Goiás (0.1%), among the main producers, also carried out small changes in their productions.

In relation to the previous year, the output decreased 4.0%, with the most significant reductions in Bahia (-15.8% or 986.0 thousand metric tons), Minas Gerais (-5.3% or 285.7 thousand metric tons), São Paulo (-11.5% or 392.1 thousand metric tons), Paraná (-16.1% or 3.1 million metric tons), Mato Grosso do Sul (-13.5% or 1.3 million metric tons) and Goiás (-4.7% or 531.3 thousand metric tons). In contrast, there were significant increases in the output of Mato Grosso (2.0% or 642.2 thousand metric tons) and Rio Grande do Sul (5.5% or 956.6 thousand metric tons).

SORGHUM (grain) – The output estimates reached 2.6 million metric tons, an increase of 0.6% in relation to the previous month. Pará revised the cereal data, reporting an increase of 114.0% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested. The state output was 39.8 thousand metric tons, 147.5% rise against last month. The yield was also reviewed and grew 15.7%. In Mato Grosso do Sul, the output dropped 11.0%, with the planted and harvested area decreasing 8.1% and the average yield retracting 3.1%.

Against  the previous year, the output recorded an increase of 14.7%, with highlights to Goiás (19.8%), Minas Gerais (7.0%), São Paulo (75.7%), Piauí (170.8%), Tocantins (36.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (47.3%) and Pará (223.2%). There were declines in the output in Mato Grosso (-16.3%), Bahia (3.8%), Federal District (-20.6%), Maranhão (-62.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-7.8%). Goiás and Minas Gerais represent 75.6% of the Brazilian output of this cereal.