Industry prices rise for the third time and stay at 0.64% in October

November 29, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 03, 2019 04h26 PM

In October/2019, the prices of mining and quarrying and manufactring industry increased, on the average, 0.64% when compared to September/2019, a figure above what was observed in the comparison between September/2019 and August/2019 (0.50%). The cumulative index in the year stayed at 3.65%, versus 2.98% in September/2019. In October 2019, 15 of the 24 activities recorded poitive price changes, versus 17 in the previous month. See the Producer Price Index support material for further information. 

Period Rate
October 2019 0.64%
September 2019 0.50%
October 2018 -0.68%
Cumulative in the year  3.65%
Cumulative in 12 months 0.37%,

The four biggest changes observed in October/2019 took place in the following industrial activities: mining and quarrying industry (-4.76%), oil refining and ethanol products (4.04%), food products (2.12%) and pulp and paper (-1.89%).

In terms of influence, the highlights were food products (0.47 percentage points), oil refining and ethanol products (0.41 percentage points), mining and quarrying industry (-0.22 percentage points) and other chemicals (-0.10 percentage points). 

Producer Price Index, by Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industry (Overall Industry) and Sections
Last three months
Overall Industry and Sections Changes (%)
M/M-1 Cumulative in the year M/M-12
AUG/19 SEP/19 OCT/19 AUG/19 SEP/19 OCT/19 AUG/19 SEP/19 OCT/19
Overall industry 0.91 0.5 0.64 2.48 2.98 3.65 1.43 -0.95 0.37
B - Mining and quarrying industry 7.67 -10.49 -4.76 30.36 16.68 11.13 31.44 4.28 1.59
C - Manufacturing industry 0.56 1.11 0.91 1.26 2.39 3.32 0.14 -1.16 0.34
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

In October/2019, the cumulative index in the year (October/2019 versus December/2018) reached 3.65%, versus 2.98% in September/2019. Among the activities which, in October/2019, had the biggest percent changes in this indicator, the highlights were: oil refining and ethanol products (16.35%), mining and quarrying industry (11.13%), pulp and paper (-10.94%) and pharmaceuticals (10.08%). The most influential sectors were: oil refining and ethanol products (1.52 percentage points), food products (0.94 percentage points), mining and quarrying industry (0.46 percentage points) and pulp and paper (-0.39 percentage points).

In the cumulative index in 12 months (comparison between October 2019 and October 2018) the change of price was 0.37%, versus -0.95% I September/2019. The four biggest changes took place in other chemicals (-11.99%), pulp and paper (-11.37%), pharmaceuticals (11.02%) and other transportation equipment (9.08%).

Among the major economic categories, the change of prices by 0.64% against September was as follows: 0.57% in capital goods; -0.05% in intermediate goods; and 1.65% in consumer goods, being 0.89% the change observed in durable consumer goods and 1.81% in semi and non-durable consumer goods.

The influence was: 0.04 percentage points for capital goods; -0.03 percentage points for intermediate goods and 0.63 percentage points for consumer goods. In the case of consumer goods, 0.57 percentage points resulted from the price changes observed for semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods and 0.06 percentage points for durable consumer goods.

The cumulative changes in the year for the major economic categories were: 5.62% for capital goods (with an influence of 0.42 percentage points), 2.33% for intermediate goods (1.27 percentage points) and 5.16% for consumer goods (1.96 percentage points). In the last case, that result was influenced with 0.27 percentage points by durable consumer goods and 1.68 percentage points by semi and non-durable consumer goods.

In the last 12 months, the changes were: capital goods, 7.88%; intermediate goods, -2.55%; and consumer goods, 3. 57%. 

Producer Price Index, by Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industry (Overall Industry) and Major Economic Categories
Last three months
Overall industry and Sections Changes (%)
M/M-1 Cumulative in the Year M/M-12
AUG/19 SEP/19 OCT/19 AUG/19 SEP/19 OCT/19 AUG/19 SEP/19 OCT/19
Overall industry  0.91 0.5 0.64 2.48 2.98 3.65 1.43 -0.95 0.37
Capital goods (BK) 1.44 0.62 0.57 4.37 5.02 5.62 6.43 4.99 7.88
Intermediate goods (BI) 1.19 0.44 -0.05 1.93 2.38 2.33 -0.05 -3.25 -2.55
Consumer goods (BC) 0.42 0.54 1.65 2.89 3.45 5.16 2.78 1.75 3.57
Durable consumer goods (BCD) -0.48 0.71 0.89 2.45 3.18 4.09 4.64 4.54 4.58
Semi and non-durable consumer goods  (BCND) 0.62 0.51 1.81 2.99 3.51 5.38 2.15 0.85 3.13
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

See the highlights below:

Mining and quarrying industry:

In October, the prices of the sector changed by -4.76% against September. Considering those prices in the month, the cumulative index in the year changed to 11.13%. In the 12 month-comparison, there was a change of 1.59%.

In the result of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industry, the influence of the sector was negative: -0.22 percentage points, 0.64%. In relation to the cumulative index in the year, the influence on the overall industry indicator was 0.46 p.p. in 3.65%.

The most influential products in the month were iron ore and “crude petroleum oil”.

 

Food products:

In October 2019, the prices of the activity changed by 2.12%, the biggest result since June 2018 (3.35%). As a result, the cumulative index changed from 2.01%, in September to 4.17%.

As a result, in the comparison with the same month in 2018, the change was 5.02%, the highest result since April 2019 (6.37%).

The highlight in the sector was due to the following facts: it was the third biggest change of prices among all the industrial activities, the main influence in the October/September comparison (0.47 percentage points, in 0.64%) and the second main influence in the October/December 2018 comparison (0.94 p.p., by 3.65%).

Among the highlights in terms of change and influence, both belong to the two cases simultaneously, ”fresh or cooled beef” and “cured beef or pork, except ready to eat food”. The other two most influential products are: “animal feed and other preparations used as animal food” and “frozen beef”. The change of each one of the most influential products is positive and the overall influence is 1.78 p.p., 2,12%. The bigger highlight over the result is the rise of beef, associated with the rise of live cattle and exports.

Pulp and paper: the prices of the sector recorded a change of -1.89% in relation to September; that led to a cumulative result of -10.94% in 2019. It is one of the biggest changes among the activities that form the IPP, the fourth major influence (module) to the cumulative index in the year, or the third major influence considering only manufacturing industry. In relation to the last 12 months, the activity recorded a change of -11.37%.

Oil refining and ethanol products: the prices of the sector, in October 2019, changed by 4.04%, the biggest result since March 2019 (6.77%). That way, the cumulative index rose 11.83%, in September, to 16.35%. Finally, in comparison with the same month in 2018, the change was 2.18%. It was the fourth month in a row with a negative change in the indicator.

The sector recorded the second main change of prices among all the activities of industry, the biggest cumulative change in the year, the second main influence in the October/September comparison (0.41 percentage points, by 0.64%) and the biggest influence in the October/December 2018 (1.52 percentage points, by 3.65%).

Other chemicals: in the October/September comparison, the average change of prices in the sector was -1.20%, the fourth negative change observed throughout the year and the first one after two positive results. In terms of the cumulative index, the change was -4.39% and, in the comparison October 2019/october 2018, it was -11.99%, the fourth result in a row. 

The highlight is the fact that, in the October 2019/October 2018 comparison, there was the biggest change (module) among all the activities of industry and, against the previous month, the fourth biggest influence (module) (-0.10 percentage points in 0.64%).

Pharmaceuticals: the change of prices in te sector in October was 1.45%,keeping the price hike observed in the previous month (1.04%). The sector recorded the fourth biggest change in the year (10.08%), being the third biggest hike in industry prices. In the last 12 months, the sector recorded the third biggest change (11.02%), being the main rise of prices in this index (the two main changes were negative). The recurrent price rises in the last few months have placed the sector among the main changes of industry concerning both indexes. The cumulative change in the year was the biggest in the time series of this sector, in the current month, whereas that of the last 12 months was the second in the time series, only second to the change of June this year (11.26%).

Motor vehicles: in October, the change observed in the sector was 0.78%, against the previous month, following a trend to increase observed in September (change of 0.94%). With this result, the cumulative change in the year and the change in the last 12 months reached, respectively, 4.36% and 4.89%.

The activity of motor vehicles was a highlight, among all the sectors surveyed, for being one of the most significant sectors in terms of the overall index, with a contribution of 8.55%.

In an analysis by product, it is possible to observe that, among the most influential products in comparison with the previous month, all of them had a positive influence on the index: “ cars for passengers, gasoline or biofuel of any cylinder capacity”, “injection pumps for motor vehicles”, “tractor trucks for trailers of semitrailers” and “alcohol or gasoline vehicles for the transportation of goods not above 5 t”. The influence of these four products with a major impact on the monthly change against the previous month was 0.77 p.p., that is, the other 19 products in this activity accounted for 0.01 percentage points.

Other transportation equipment: In October versus September and the cumulative index in the year recorded changes of 0.44% and 5.93%, respectively. The indicator in the last 12 months recorded a change of 9.08%. In terms of influence, the change of prices in the sector accounted for 0.01 percentage points over 0.64%, in the monthly change and with 0.11 percentage points over 3.65%, in the cumulative change of the overall industry.