IPCA-15 has slight acceleration, stays at 0.14% in November

November 22, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 26, 2019 11h05 AM

The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 - IPCA-15 changed 0.14% in November, showing a slight acceleration in relation to the rate of 0.09% registered in October. This was the lowest figure for November since 1998, when the rate was -0.11%. The cumulative change over the year was 2.83% and, in the last 12 months, 2.67%, below the rate of 2.72% recorded in the 12 immediately previous months. The rate was 0.19% in November 2018.

Period RATE
November 2019 0.14%
October 2019 0.09%
November 2018 0.19%
Cumulative in the year 2.83%
Cumulative in 12 months 2.67%

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, three of them registered a deflation, highlighted by Housing (-0.22%), the group responsible for the biggest negative contribution to the November´s IPCA-15 (-0.04 percentage points). On the highs side, the highlights were the groups of Wearing apparel (0.68%), Personal expenses (0.40%) and Transportation (0.30%), whose impact on the month´s index was 0.06 p.p. After the deflation reported in October (-0.25%), Food and Beverages registered a slight rise (0.06%), contributing with 0.02 p.p. The other groups stood between the drop of 0.06% in Household articles and the rise of 0.20% in Health and personal care. See the table below.

Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
October November October November
Overall Index 0.09 0.14 0.09 0.14
Food and Beverages -0.25 0.06 -0.06 0.02
Housing -0.23 -0.22 -0.04 -0.04
Household articles -0.21 -0.06 -0.01 0.00
Wearing apparel 0.14 0.68 0.01 0.04
Transportation 0.35 0.30 0.06 0.06
Health and Personal Care 0.85 0.20 0.10 0.02
Personal Expenses 0.16 0.40 0.02 0.04
Education 0.09 0.04 0.01 0.00
Communication 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços. Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor.

Transportation (0.30%) recorded the biggest impact among the groups on the month´s index (0.06 p.p.). Gasoline and ethanol, which had already risen in October, accelerated in November (from 0.76% and 0.52% in October to 0.80% and 2.53% in November, respectively). The prices of diesel fuel (0.58%) and vehicular gas (0.10%) also increased, taking the result of fuels to a rise of 1.07%. Still in Transportation, the rise in the prices of airfare (4.44%) also stood out, after changing 2.10% in October.

After the rise of 0.14% in October, the group of Wearing apparel accelerated to 0.68% in November. The rises reported in the items men’s wearing apparel (1.15%), children´s wearing apparel (0.65%) and women’s wearing apparel (0.49%) stood out. In addition, jewels accelerated their prices over the previous month, changing from a rise of 1.24% in October to 1.87% in November.

Personal expenses also accelerated compared with the previous months, changing from 0.16% to 0.40%, influenced by sub-items domestic workers (0.31%) and games of chance (2.46%), whose result reflected the adjustments in the bet prices in force from November 10 onwards.

The group of Food and Beverages registered a slight rise in the November´s index (0.06% ), after three consecutive months of deflation (-0.17% in August, -0,34% in September and -0.25% in October). Food away from home changed from stable prices in October (0.00%) to a rise of 0.12% in November. This result was mainly influenced by the rises in meals (0.13%) and beer away from home (0.34%).

In addition, food at home, which had dropped 0.38% in October, changed 0.03%. Meat rose 3.08% and contributed with 0.08 p.p. to the November´s IPCA-15. On the other hand, the drops in onions (-18.60%), tomatoes (-8.00%), potatoes (-7.92%) and long-life milk (-1.67%) stood out.

On the drops side, the group of Housing posted the highest negative change and the biggest negative impact on the month´s index (-0.22% and -0.04 p.p.). This result was influenced by the drop registered in electricity (-1.51%), which impacted -0.06 p.p. The residential bills reduced 5.30%, on average, in one of the concessionaires in São Paulo (-1.68%), in force since October 23. Brasília (-5.44%) and Goiânia (-4.75%) also reduced their fare since October 22: the reduction was of 6.91% in the former and of 5.08% in the latter. It should be highlighted that the red tariff flag level 1 came into force in November, an additional charge which was adjusted from R$4.00 to R$4.169 per each 100 kilowatt-hour consumed. The yellow tariff flag was in force in October, whose additional charge was of R$1.50 per each 100 kilowatt-hour.

Still in Housing, the sub-item piped gas changed -0.10%, due to the reduction of 0.60%, in force since November 1st in the fare practiced in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (-0.21%). On its turn, the result of 0.31% of the water and sewage fees was due to the adjustment of 4.87%, in force since October 1st in the fare practiced in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (2.97%) and to the adjustment of 3.43%, in force since November 11 in the metropolitan area of Curitiba (0.11%).

Brasília and Recife have deflation

Concerning the regional indexes, two out of the 11 areas surveyed recorded a deflation between October and November, as shown in the table below. The lowest result was reported in Brasília (-0.23%), due to the drop in electricity (-5.44%). The highest index was registered in the metropolitan area of Belém (0.33%), influenced by the rises in meat (5.77%) and men’s wearing apparel (2.33%).

Area Regional Weight (%) Monthly Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
October November Year 12 months
Belém 4.65 0.28 0.33 3.37 3.65
São Paulo 31.68 0.06 0.29 3.24 3.03
Curitiba 7.79 -0.07 0.18 2.11 1.88
Goiânia 4.44 0.22 0.14 2.29 2.08
Rio de Janeiro 12.46 0.18 0.11 2.61 2.49
Porto Alegre 8.40 0.00 0.10 2.75 2.69
Fortaleza 3.49 -0.08 0.04 3.55 3.50
Salvador 7.35 0.20 0.01 2.79 2.63
Belo Horizonte 11.23 0.15 0.00 2.80 2.54
Recife 5.05 -0.07 -0.04 2.71 2.51
Brasília 3.46 0.20 -0.23 1.78 1.47
Brazil 100.00 0.09 0.14 2.83 2.67
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços. Sistema Nacional de Índices de Preços ao Consumidor.

In order to estimate the IPCA-15, the prices collected from October 12 to November 11, 2019 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from September 13 to October 11, 2019 (base). The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, as well as Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.