For 2020, IBGE expects retreat of 1.0% in grain harvest

November 13, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 22, 2019 02h35 PM

In October, the first forecast for the 2020 harvest was of 238.5 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.0% over 2019 (or less 2,357,854 tonnes). Corn - 2nd crop was expected to drop (-7.5% or less 7,542,012 tonnes) and soybeans was expected to grow 4.7% (or more 5,353,363 tonnes).

Among the five products with the highest weights in the harvest, three of them were expected to retreat the output: upland cotton (-0.1%), beans - 1st crop (-1.5%) and corn - 1st crop (-1.2%). On the other hand, the positive changes would be: rice (1.6%) and soybeans (4.7%). Concerning the area, the positive changes were: upland cottonseed (4.4%), soybeans (0.8%) and corn (0.4%). Beans - 1st crop (-0.3%) and rice (-0.9%) were expected to reduce.

PRODUCTION OF CEREALS, LEGUMES AND OILSEEDS - 1ST FORECAST FOR 2020 - BRAZIL
Agricultural Products Projection % Forecast % Total % part
HERBACEOUS COTTON  (seed) 131 074 3.1 4 066 643 96.9 4 197 717 1.8
PEANUTS IN A SHELL - TOTAL 557 339 95.8 24 177 4.2 581 516 0.2
PEANUTS IN A SHELL - 1st crop 550 614 96.1 22 306 3.9 572 920 0.2
PEANUTS IN A SHELL - 2nd crop 6 725 78.2 1 871 21.8 8 596 0.0
PADDY RICE 339 479 3.2 10 154 105 96.8 10 493 584 4.4
OAT (grain) 889 786 98.5 13 986 1.5 903 772 0.4
RYE (grain) 8 263 100 - 0 8 263 0.0
BARLEY (grain) 340 274 100 - 0 340 274 0.1
BEANS seed - TOTAL 1 261 769 44.3 1 584 808 55.7 2 846 577 1.2
BEANS seed - 1st crop 209 902 16.4 1 073 049 83.6 1 282 951 0.5
BEANS seed - 2nd crop 695 312 63.1 406 442 36.9 1 101 754 0.5
BEANS seed - 3rd crop 356 555 77.2 105 317 22.8 461 872 0.2
SUNFLOWER (grain) 9 024 7.5 110 631 92.5 119 655 0.1
CASTOR beans 0 0 27 876 100 27 876 0.0
CORN grain - TOTAL 30 038 581 32.4 62 655 756 67.6 92 694 337 38.9
CORN grain - 1st crop 3 219 521 12.6 22 386 304 87.4 25 605 825 10.7
CORN grain - 2nd crop 26 819 060 40 40 269 452 60 67 088 512 28.1
SOYBEAN grain 14 456 271 12.2 103 915 234 87.8 118 371 505 49.6
SORGHUM (grain) 1 167 799 45.6 1 394 733 54.4 2 562 532 1.1
WHEAT (in grain) 5 269 909 99.7 14 400 0.3 5 284 309 2.2
TRITICALE (grain) 29 930 100 - 0 29 930 0.0
TOTAL 54 499 498 22.9 183 962 349 77.1 238 461 847 100.0
Source: IBGE, Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola, Out/2019. 
NOTE: For those Federation Units that still do not have the initial estimates due to the agricultural calendar, the data correspond to a projection using information from the previous years. 
(1) Cotton seed (61% of cotton in seed).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The first forecast for the 2020 harvest estimated a production of 6.9 million tonnes, decrease of 0.1% in relation to 2019. The planted area, of 1.7 million hectares, must grow 4.4%. In 2019, Mato Grosso’s and Bahia’s major producing regions were benefited due to abundant and regular rainfall and achieved a high productivity (4, 234 kg/ha). However, the weather uncertainty is reducing the average yield estimate for 2020.

Mato Grosso estimated a production of 4.7 million tonnes, with a high of 0.5% in relation to 2019, and must be responsible for 67.9% of the national production. An increase of 5.7% in the planted area is estimated, achieving 1.2 million hectares, but the average yield has been revised down (-4.9%), and must reach 4, 001 kg/ha. 

PADDY RICE – The first estimate for the 2020 national crop is of 10.5 million tonnes, an increase of 1.6% in relation to 2019. The average yield must grow 2.6% 6,262 kg/ha, while the planted area must decrease 1.8%. Rio Grande do Sul, the major rice producer in the country, must contribute with 69.9% of the total to be harvested in 2020. The Minas Gerais’s production was estimated in 7.3 million tonnes, an increase of 2.2% in relation to 2019. The estimated planted area for rice reduced 2.7% while the estimated yield grew 3.5%, 7,678 kg/ha. Santa Catarina, the second major national producer, estimates 1.1 million tonnes in production, with a yield of 7,470 kg/ha and high of 0.6% in relation to 2019.

BEAN SEED – The first bean production estimate for the 2020 crop is of 2.8 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.0% in relation to the crop harvested in 2019. The 1st crop must produce 1.3 million tonnes; the 2nd crop a production of 1.1 million tonnes and the 3rd, 461.9 thousand tonnes. The area to be harvested in the 1st crop (1.6 million hectares) retreated 1.5% in relation to 2019, and the average yield (836 kg/ha), reduced 1.2%.

The 2nd and 3rd bean crop will be planted and harvested in 2020. Therefore, the estimate can undergo changes in the next forecast, as well as the monthly data of the Systematic Survey of the Agricultural Production for 2020.

CORN GRAIN – The first corn grain forecast for 2020 estimates a production of 92.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.5% in relation to the 2019 crop, which represents a reduction of 7.5 million tonnes. The trend of a biggest volume in 2nd corn crop production remained, and this crop must contribute with 72.4% to the national production for 2020, against 27.6% in the 1st corn crop.

For the 1st corn crop, the prospect is 25.6 million tonnes, 1.2% lower than 2019. A decrease of 0.7% in the planted area and an increase of 0.4% in harvested area are expected. For the average yield, estimates should decrease 1.6%. Although the current prices are higher than in the period of planting decision for the 2019 1st crop, the producers must not rise the investments on corn, because soybeans have better profit expectations.

For 2nd corn cop, the production estimate is 67.1 million tonnes, a decrease of 9.7% in relation to 2019, despite the growth of 0.4% in harvested area. In the 2019 crop, the longer rainy season in the first quarter has benefited the second crop.

Around 40% of production statistics for 2nd corn crop are average projections of the last five years, excluding the average yield in the 2019 second crop that was much higher than in the other four previous years, which reduced the production estimate. 

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The first production estimate for 2020 account 118.8 million tonnes, an increase of 4.7% in relation to 2019. The planted area is 36 million hectares, a rise of 0.7%. The estimate average yield is 3,286 kg/ha, an increase of 3.9%. In 2019, the hot weather and the lack of rainfall in Paraná, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul affected the Brazilian harvest.  With good prices in relation to the corn, the producers must extend the soybean areas, which, in 2020, must represent 56.8% of the total planted grain area in the country.

In 2020, Mato Grosso do Sul must be responsible for 26.6% of the total produced in the country and harvest 31.4 million tonnes, with a decrease of 2.4% in relation to 2019. Paraná, the second major producer (16.7% of the national total) estimates to produce 19.8 million tonnes, with a high of 22.6%. Rio Grande do Sul, the third major producer, estimates a production of 19.2 million tonnes, with a high of 3.6% in relation to 2019.

October’s estimate: 2019 crop must grow 6.3% in relation to 2018

The October’s estimate for the 2019 crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds achieved 240.8 million tonnes, 6.3% higher than 2018 (226.5 million tonnes), with growth of 77.5 thousand tonnes in relation to the previous month’s estimate (0.0%). The previous record was in 2017 (238.4 million tonnes). The estimate of the area to be harvested was 63.1 million hectares, with a high of 3.6% against 2018. In relation to the previous month, the estimate of the area to be harvested grew 71.3 million hectares (0.1%).

The three major products of this group (rice, corn and soybeans), together, represented 92.8% of the production estimate and 87.0% of the area to be harvested.

The production estimate was 113.0 million tonnes for soybeans and a record of 100.2 million tonnes for corn (25.9 million tonnes in the 1st crop and 74.3 million tonnes in the 2nd crop). The estimated production for rice was 10.3 million tonnes, and for cotton, 6.9 million tonnes, the last one is also a record in the IBGE’s time series. In relation to 2018, soybean and rice decreased 4.1% and 12.0% respectively, and corn and upland cotton increased 23.2% and 39.7% respectively.

Against September, there were highs in the production estimate of cashew nuts (9.4% or 11.5 thousand tonnes), tomatoes (1.8% or 72.2 thousand tonnes), grapes (1.3% or 18.7 thousand tonnes), upland cotton (0.5% or 33.9 thousand tonnes), coffea canephora (0.1% or 1.0 thousand tonnes), and decreases in the production estimate of sorghum (-0.5% or 13.8 thousand tonnes), coffea arabica (-0.8% or 17.3 thousand tonnes), barley grain (-1.8% or 7.7 thousand tonnes) and wheat grain (-3.0% or 164.3 thousand tonnes).

 

The regional distribution of the production volume was: Central-West, 111.2 million tonnes; South, 77.3 million tonnes; Southeast, 23.4 million tonnes; Northeast, 19.2 million tonnes and North, 9.7 million tonnes. In relation to 2018, the increase was of 8.4% in the North, 10.1% in the Central-West, 3.8% in the South, 0.4% in the Northeast as 2.3% in the Southeast. Mato Grosso is the major national producer, participating with 28.0%.

OCTOBER ESTIMATES IN RELATION TO THE 2018 CROP

The sharpest changes in the production estimates were in Rondônia (166,241 t), Minas Gerais (37,913 t), Tocantins (31,693 t), Rio Grande do Sul (14,471 t), Espírito Santo (-112 t), Rio Grande do Norte (-1,652 t), Ceará (-1,671 t), Goiás (-4,279 t), Sergipe (-9,778 t), Santa Catarina (-14,012 t) and Paraná (-141,342 t).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The cotton production was 6.9 million tonnes, an increase of 0.5% in relation to the previous month. In Minas Gerais, the production was 169.0 million tonnes, with a high of 24.6%, due to the good prices in the planting period as the Chinese demand and the product profits increased in 2018.

COFFEE BEANS – The Brazilian production estimate of coffee was 3.0 million tonnes, or 50.0 million 60-kg sacks, a reduction of 16.5% in relation to 2018. In relation to the previous month, the production was 0.5% lower.

The estimated production for coffea arabica was 2.1 million tonnes, or 34.8 million 60-kg sacks, a decrease of 0.8% in relation to the previous month. In Espírito Santo, the estimates edged down 8.7% due the fall of 8.5% in the average yield. The planted area and area to be harvested decreased 0.1%.

For coffea canephora, or conillon, the estimate production was 912.4 million tonnes, or 15.2 million 60kg sacks, an increase of 0.1% in relation to the previous month.

Annual production and change by product
Product 2018 Production (t) 2019 Production (t) Change (%)
Upland cotton 4,930,518 6,888,370 39.7
Peanut (1st crop) 546,517 548,105 0.3
Peanut (2nd crop) 11,361 12,172 7.1
Rice 11,736,353 10,325,864 -12.0
Oat 890,235 938,663 5.4
Potato (1st crop) 1,636,737 1,695,764 3.6
Potato (2nd crop) 1,182,000 1,211,326 2.5
Potato (3rd crop) 1,028,300 935,603 -9.0
Rye 8,184 9,407 14.9
Barley 325,081 408,357 25.6
Bean (1st crop) 1,514,084 1,303,091 -13.9
Bean (2nd crop) 1,003,147 1,171,181 16.8
Bean (3rd crop) 456,701 585,325 28.2
Sunflower 137,969 131,048 -5.0
Castor beans 19,314 29,558 53.0
Corn (1st crop) 25,743,077 25,922,481 0.7
Corn (2nd crop) 55,621,458 74,313,868 33.6
Soybeans 117,833,492 113,018,142 -4.1
Sorghum 2,251,862 2,566,239 14.0
Wheat 5,305,067 5,303,800 0.0
Triticale 41,664 30,494 -26.8

CASHEW NUT – The production was 133.9 million tonnes, an increase of 9.4% in relation to the previous month. The average yield grew 9.8%. In Ceará, the production was revised up, with growth of 17.6%. The rainy season in the second quarter benefited the production, which achieved 78.0 thousand tonnes, or 58.2% in the national production.

WINTER CEREALS The winter harvest was estimated at 6,650,820 tonnes, with wheat contributing with 79.8% to the total, or 5,303,800 tonnes; oat grain with 14.1% (938,663 tonnes) and barley grain with 6.1% (408,357 tonnes).

The wheat planted area, major Brazilian winter crop, will be of 2.1 million hectares, with a fall of 3.0% in production, and reduction of 3.1% in the average yield. In Paraná, the production estimate (2.2 million tonnes) rebounded 7.9% due to frost. In Rio Grande do Sul, the estimate (2.3 million tonnes) grew 1.1%.

The estimate for oat production was 938.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.9% in relation to the previous month, due to the reduction of 2.2% in the average yield and of 0.8% in the harvested area. Production decreased in Paraná (-2.8%), Santa Catarina (22.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-2.3%), which represented 92.6% of the national production.

The estimate production for barley grain (408.4 thousand tonnes) rebounded 1.9%. The area to be harvested (111.6 thousand hectares) grew 3.1% and the average yield (3,660 kg/ha) edged down 4.8%. Paraná recorded an estimate production of 244.3 thousand tonnes (-5.2% in relation to the previous month). In Santa Catarina, the estimate is 3.3 thousand tonnes (-25.5%). In Rio Grande do Sul, the estimate (148.0 thousand tonnes) grew 3.6%.

SORGHUM GRAIN – The estimate achieved 2.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.5% in relation to September. The highest retreat in production (-1.5%) was in Goiás, major producer, with contribution of 42.6%. In Tocantins, the production increased 2.8%.

TOMATOES – The Brazilian production estimate was 4.1 million tonnes, a growth of 1.8% in relation to the previous month. The estimate of the planted area (58.1 thousand hectares) grew 1.8%, and the average yield, 1.2%. The production increase against the previous month is due to the review in Goiás (3.6%), Minas Gerais (3.0%) and Ceará (11.3%). The production decreased in Espírito Santo (-1.9%), Santa Catarina (-0.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-0.1%).