In September, industry grows in 10 of the 15 areas surveyed

November 08, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 11, 2019 05h56 PM

In September 2019, in the seasonally adjusted series, ten of the 15 areas surveyed recorded positive rates, following the increase (0.3%) of national industry. Bahia (4.3%), Northeast Region (3.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (2.9%) accounted for the biggest increases. On the other hand, Pará (-8.3%) recorded the main decrease in the month, thus reversing the increase recorded last August (8.2%). In comparison with September 2018, the industrial sector recorded an increase of 1.1%, with positive results in six of the 15 areas surveyed. The cumulative indicator in the last twelve months fell by 1.4% in September, with negative rates in 9 of the 15 areas surveyed. 

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In the increase of national industrial output by 0.3%, from August to September 2019, in the seasonally-adjusted series, ten out of the 15 places surveyed recorded positive rates.  Bahia (4.3%), Northeast Region (3.3 and Rio Grande do Sul (2.9%) recorded the most significant increases, with the first two ones recording the second positive rate in a row and with cumulative increases of 5.2% and 3.7%, respectively; and the last one elimiating part of the loss (5.6%) observed in the period July-August 2019.  Espírito Santo (2.5%), Minas Gerais (2.4%), Pernambuco (2.3%), Santa Catarina (2.1%), Mato Grosso (2.0%) and Paraná (1.3%) also reached more significant decreases in relation to the national average (0.3%), whereas Ceará (0.2%) complete the group os areas with positive indexes in September 2019.  On the other hand, Pará (-8.3%) recorded the most significant increase in the month, eliminating, that way, the increase observed last August (8.2%).  The other negative figures were registered in Amazonas (-1.6%), São Paulo (-1.4%), Rio de Janeiro
 (-0.6%) and Goiás (-0.1%).

Short-Term Indicators of Industry
Results by Area
September 2019
Areas Change (%)
September 2019/August 2019* September  2019/September 2018 Cumulative  January-September Cumulative in the last 12 months 
Amazonas -1.6 16.7 2.5 0.9
Pará -8.3 -2.0 -1.1 1.6
Região Nordeste 3.3 -3.8 -4.3 -3.5
Ceará 0.2 0.0 1.4 1.1
Pernambuco 2.3 -7.6 -3.0 -2.8
Bahia 4.3 -1.4 -2.9 -1.5
Minas Gerais 2.4 -1.8 -4.6 -3.6
Espírito Santo 2.5 -14.1 -13.0 -8.7
Rio de Janeiro -0.6 7.0 0.3 -0.4
São Paulo -1.4 3.6 -0.1 -1.1
Paraná 1.3 7.4 6.7 5.2
Santa Catarina 2.1 5.2 3.4 3.7
Rio Grande do Sul 2.9 -1.1 4.3 5.5
Mato Grosso 2,0 -1,7 -4,2 -3,8
Goiás -0,1 1,6 1,7 -0,7
Brazil 0,3 1,1 -1,4 -1,4
* Seasonally-adjusted series

Also concerning the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall pointed to an increase (0.4%) in the quarter ended September 2019 against the previous month, after recording a positive rate of 0.1% last August, when it interrupted a predominantly decreasing trend initiated in August 2018.  In regional terns, also in terms of that marginal movement, twelve of the fifteen areas surveyed recorded positive rates in the month, the main highlights being the increases in Mato Grosso (2.7%), Rio de Janeiro (2.4%), Minas Gerais (14%), Bahia (1.3%), Paraná (1.3%) and Espírito Santo (1.0%). On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul (-1.0%), Amzonas (-0.4%) and Pará (-0.3%) recorded decreases in September 2019.

In the comparison with the same month in the previous year, the industrial sector grew by 1.1% in September 2019, with six of the 15 areas surveyed recording positive results.  It is worth mentioning that September 2019 (21 days) had two business days more than the same month in the previous year (19).  In the month, Amazonas (16.7%) had a two-digit increase and the most significant one, mainly due to the increases observed in the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (automotive gasoline, fuel oils and naphthas for petrochemical industry), beverages (preparations in syrup for the elaboration of beverages for industrial purposes), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (television sets), other transportation equipment (motorcycles, their pieces and accessories) and machinery and equipment (wall and window air conditioners - including the split system - and commercial self-service terminals).  Paraná (7.4), Rio de Janeiro (7.0%), Santa Catarina (5.2%), São Paulo (3.6%) and Goiás (1.6%) completed the group of areas with increase of output in the month, whereas Ceará (0.0%) recorded null change.

On the other hand, Espírito Santo (-14.1%) and Pernambuco (-7.6%) recorded the most significant decreases in September 2019, mainly due to the negative performance of pulp, paper and paper products (cellulose), mining and quarrying industry (pelleted or sintered iron ore, crude petroleum oil and natural gas), basic metals (carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates), carbon steel hot bobbins, uncoated and flexible and drawn tubes made of iron and steel) and food products (chocolate candy and bars, granulated sugar and fresh or cooled beef) in the former location; and food products (granulated sugar, VHP sugar and refined sugar, ice cream and popsicles and crackers and cookies) and other transportation equipment (boats for cargo or passenger transportation - including oil tanker and platforms), in the latter.  Northeast Region (-3.8%), Pará (-2.0%), Minas Gerais (-1.5%), Mato Grosso (-1.7%), Bahia (-1.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-1.1%0 also recorded negative decreases in the month.

The cumulative index in the period January-September 2019, against the same period in the previous year, decreased in eight of the fifteen areas surveyed, with a highlight to Espírito Santo (-13.0%) and Minas Gerais (-4.6%), pushed mainly by the drops seen in mining and quarrying industries (crude petroleum oils, iron ores - pelleted or sintered - and natural gas) and pulp, paper and paper products (cellulose), in the former place; and mining and quarrying industries (raw or processed iron ore), in the latter. Northeast Region (-4.3%), Mato Grosso (-4.2%), Pernambuco (-3.0%) and Bahia (-2.9%) also recorded the highest negative rates  in relation to the average of industry (-1.4%), whereas Pará (-1.1%) and São Paulo (-0.1%) completed the group of areas with decrease of output in the end of nine months of 2019.  On the other hand, Paraná (6.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (4.3%) accounted for the greatest advances in the cumulative index of the year, pressed, mainly, by the activities of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (cars and tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers) food products (frozen poultry nd giblets, animal food, granulated sugar and frozen beef) and machinery and equipment (harvesting machines) in the former place; and motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (cars, trailers and semi-trailers and bodies for buses), in the latter. Santa Catarina (3.4%), Amazonas (2.5%), Goiás (1.7%), Ceará (1.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (0.3%) also had positive rates in the cumulative indicator in the period January-September 2019.

The cumulative indicator in the last 12 months, having recorded a decrease of 1.4% in September 2019, faced reduction in the pace of decrease against the figure in the previous month (-1.7%), interrupting, that way, the predominantly downward trend initiated in July 2018 (3.2%).  In regional terms, nine out of the 15 places surveyed recorded negative rates in September 2019, but eight of them had increased dynamism against the indexes of last August. Amazonas (from -1.6% to 0.9), São Paulo (from -2.0% to -1.1%), Rio de Janeiro (from -1.3% to -0.4%), Goiás (from -1.4% to -0.7) and Paraná (from 4.6% to 5.2%) recorded the biggest increases between August and September 2019, whereas Pernambuco (from -0.8% to -2.8%), Espírito Santo (from -7.2% to -8.7%), Pará (from 3.0% to 1.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (from 6.6% to 5.5%) recorded the main decreases between the two periods.

Output of industry in Pernambuco decreased from 3.6% to -8.5% between Q2 and Q3

Having decreased by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2019, industry kept the negative results observed since the last quarter of 2018 (-1.3%), being all comparisons against the same period a year ago.  The increased pace of decrease by the industry overall from the second (-0.8%) to the third quarter (-1.2%) of 2019 resulted from the decrease of pace observed in ten of the 15 areas surveyed. The highlight was Pernambuco (from 3.6% to -8.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 9.1% to -1.8%), Northeast Region (from -1.0% to -7.3%), Bahia (from 0.5% to -5.5%), Santa Catarina (from 6.7% to 0.9%), Ceará (from 4.8% to 0.2%) and Paraná (from 7.5% to 4.9%). On the other hand, Pará (from -8.0% to 4.6%), Rio de Janeiro (from -3.1% to 5.0%), Amazonas (from 4.1% to 9.4%) and Minas Gerais (from -6.9% to -4.9%) recorded the most significant increases between the two periods.