IPCA stays at 0.10% in October

November 07, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 08, 2019 10h58 AM

The Extended National Consumer Price Index - IPCA changed 0.10% in October, whereas it had registered -0.04% in September. This was the lowest figure for October since 1998, when the IPCA stayed at 0.02%. The cumulative index in the year stayed at 2.60% and, in the last 12 months, at 2.54%, standing below the index of 2.89% recorded in the immediately previous 12 months. In October 2018, the rate was 0.45%.

Period Rate
October 2019 0.10%
September 2019 -0.04%
October 2018 0.45%
In the year of 2019 2.60%
Cumulative in 12 months 2.54%

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, three of them registered a deflation between September and October, highlighted by Housing (-0.61%), the group responsible for the biggest negative contribution to the month´s IPCA (-0.10 percentage points).

Among the positive rates, the highlights were Wearing apparel (0.63%), Health and personal care (0.40%) and Transportation (0.45%), impacting the index by 0.08 p.p. After the negative change reported in September (-0.43%), Food and beverages recorded a slight rise (0.05%), contributing with 0.01 p.p. The other groups stood between the drop of 0.09% in Household articles and the rise of 0.20% in Personal expenses.

IPCA - Change and Impact by Group - monthly

Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
September October September October
Overall Index -0.04 0.10 -0.04 0.10
Food and Beverages -0.43 0.05 -0.11 0.01
Housing 0.02 -0.61 0.00 -0.10
Household articles -0.76 -0.09 -0.03 0.00
Wearing apparel 0.27 0.63 0.02 0.04
Transportation 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.08
Health and Personal Care 0.58 0.40 0.07 0.05
Personal Expenses 0.04 0.20 0.01 0.02
Education 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.00
Communication -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

The positive change in the group of Food and beverages (0.05%) was particularly due to the group of food away from home, whose rise changed from 0.04% in September to 0.19% in October. After the drop in the prices reported in the previous month (-0.06%), meals increased 0.24% and snacks, whose prices already rose in September (0.17%), increased 0.32%.

On the other hand, food at home (-0.03%) fell for the sixth consecutive month, though less intensely than that recorded in August and September (-0.84% and -0.70%, respectively). The highlights were onions (-20.84%), with an impact of -0.04 p.p., and potatoes (-9.06%), with an impact of -0.02 p.p. Meat, in turn, rose 1.77% and contributed with the biggest individual impact on the group (0.05 p.p.).

After remaining stable in September (0.00%), Transportation changed 0.45% in October, influenced by the rising prices of fuels (1.38%). Gasoline, which had slightly dropped (-0.04%) in the previous month, rose 1.28%, contributing with 0.05 p.p. to the month´s index. Except for Brasília (-0.17%) and São Luís (-0.79%), all the areas surveyed registered a positive change, from 0.33% in Vitória up to 2.62% in Aracaju. The prices of ethanol (1.90%), diesel fuel (1.82%) and vehicular gas (0.44%) also increased and contributed to the acceleration of fuels in the comparison with the previous month (0.12%).

Still in Transportation, the rise in the prices of airfare (1.93%) stood out, after two months with negative changes (-15.66% in August and -1.54% in September).

The group of Health and personal care (0.40%) decelerated in relation to September (0.58%). The biggest individual contribution (0.03 p.p.) came from health insurance (0.59%), with a result close to that of the previous month (0.57%). The prices in personal hygiene (0.94%), in turn, increased less in relation to September (1.65%), with an impact of 0.02 p.p.

The biggest positive change in the October´s IPCA was the group of Wearing apparel (0.63%), highlighted by the rises reported in women’s wearing apparel (0.98%), men’s wearing apparel (0.38%) and children´s wearing apparel (0.30%). Jewels accelerated, changing from a rise of 1.92% in September to 2.23% in October.

After the slight rise reported in September (0.02%), Housing (-0.61%) recorded the highest negative change in October among the groups surveyed, mainly due to the drop in the item electricity (-3.22%). Except for Salvador (0.86%) and Vitória (2.24%), all the areas declined their prices, from the rate of -0.26% in Recife down to -5.99% in Goiânia. While the red tariff flag level 1 was in force in September, with an increase of R$4.00 at each 100 kilowatt-hour consumed, the yellow flag came into force in October, with a smaller increase of R$1.50 at each 100 kilowatt-hour. In addition, the residential bills of one of the concessionaires in São Paulo (-4.37%) reduced, on average, 5.30% since October 23. Brasília (-5.44%) and Goiânia (-5.99%) also reduced their fare since October 22: the reduction was of 6.91% in the former and of 5.08% in the latter.

Still in Housing, the adjustment of 4.87% in water and sewage fees (0.52%) in Rio de Janeiro (4.40%), in force since October 1st, stood out. Concerning the item bottled gas (0.74%), it should be highlighted that Petrobras announced an adjustment between 4.80% and 5.30% in the price of the 13-kg cylinder in the refineries from October 22 onwards.

As shown in the following table, the biggest regional change was registered in the municipality of Campo Grande (0.31%), mainly due to the rise in the prices of meat (4.47%) and gasoline (2.29%). On the other hand, the lowest index was recorded in the municipality of São Luís (-0.37%), due to the drop in the item electricity (-4.43%) and the falling prices of onions (-25.65%).

IPCA - Change by area - monthly and cumulative in 12 months
Area Regional Weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
September October Year 12 months
Campo Grande 1.51 -0.04 0.31 2.62 2.37
Vitória 1.78 -0.02 0.29 2.02 1.71
Rio de Janeiro 12.06 -0.13 0.27 2.64 3.03
Belém 4.23 0.08 0.22 2.71 3.21
Belo Horizonte 10.86 -0.18 0.17 2.66 2.57
São Paulo 30.67 -0.06 0.14 2.91 2.63
Salvador 6.12 0.14 0.08 2.40 2.66
Goiânia 3.59 0.41 0.07 2.20 2.29
Aracaju 0.79 0.05 0.04 2.85 3.22
Fortaleza 2.91 -0.08 0.04 3.45 3.45
Porto Alegre 8.40 -0.04 -0.01 2.42 2.25
Recife 4.20 -0.09 -0.07 2.58 2.65
Brasília 2.80 -0.17 -0.08 1.72 1.60
Curitiba 7.79 0.06 -0.12 1.99 1.55
Rio Branco 0.42 0.30 -0.14 2.46 3.00
São Luís 1.87 -0.22 -0.37 1.69 1.83
Brazil 100.00 -0.04 0.10 2.60 2.54

The IPCA has been calculated by the IBGE since 1980. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília. In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from September 28 to October 28, 2019 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from August 28 to September 27, 2019 (base).

INPC of October stays at 0.04%

The National Consumer Price Index - INPC changed 0.04% in October, whereas it had registered -0.05% in September. This was the lowest result for October since the beginning of the Real Plan. The cumulative change in the year stayed at 2.67% and, in relation to the last 12 months, the index retreated to 2.55%, below the rate of 2.92% registered in the 12 immediately previous months. In October 2018, the rate was 0.40%.

Food products rose 0.02% in October, while recording -0.42% in the previous month. The group of non-food products changed 0.05%, whereas it had registered 0.11% in September.

The metropolitan area of Vitória (0.31%) recorded the highest change, due to the rise reported in the item electricity (2.23%). The positive change was a consequence of the increase in PIS/COFINS practiced in that region. Conversely, the lowest index was posted in the municipality of São Luís (-0.40%), also due to electricity (-4.44%), though in the opposite direction. In addition, onions (-25.65%) also dropped, with an impact of -0.16 p.p. in the result of that area.

INPC - Change by area - monthly and cumulative in 12 months
Area Regional Weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
September October Year 12 months
Vitória 1.83 -0.01 0.31 2.57 1.87
Belém 6.44 0.04 0.30 2.81 3.23
Campo Grande 1.64 0.02 0.27 2.60 2.25
Rio de Janeiro 9.51 -0.15 0.20 2.80 2.66
São Paulo 24.24 -0.07 0.12 2.97 2.54
Salvador 8.75 0.06 0.10 2.36 2.79
Belo Horizonte 10.60 -0.20 0.07 2.89 2.82
Goiânia 4.15 0.37 -0.02 2.36 2.60
Fortaleza 5.42 -0.21 -0.03 3.28 3.48
Aracaju 1.29 0.01 -0.03 2.84 3.32
Recife 5.88 -0.15 -0.11 2.51 2.71
Porto Alegre 7.38 0.00 -0.11 2.52 2.17
Rio Branco 0.59 0.28 -0.18 2.31 2.71
Curitiba 7.29 0.08 -0.21 2.13 1.45
Brasília 1.88 -0.11 -0.28 1.71 1.17
São Luís 3.11 -0.18 -0.40 1.52 1.79
Brazil 100.00 -0.05 0.04 2.67 2.55

The INPC has been calculated by the IBGE since 1979. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 5 minimum wages, with a salaried head of the household. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília. In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from September 28 to October 28, 2019 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from August 28 to September 27, 2019 (base).