The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) changed 0.09% in October, the same percentage registered in September. This is the lowest result for an October since 1998, when the rate was 0.01%. In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulated a high of 2.69% and, in 12 months, of 2.72%, below the 3.22% recorded in the previous 12 months. In October 2018, the rate was 0.58%.8%.

The group of Health and Personal Care recorded the biggest change, 0.85%, and the highest impact, 0.10 percentage points (pp), among the nine groups of surveyed products and services. The second biggest positive change was Transportation (0.35%), which contributed with 0.06 pp to this month’s index. Regarding decreases, the highlight was the Food and Beverage group (-0.25%), which recorded deflation for the third month in a row. The prices in Housing (-0.23%) and Household Articles (-0.21%) also rebounded in comparison to the previous month, while Communication (0.00%) recorded stability. The other groups stood between the increases of 0.09% in Education and 0.16% in Personal Expenses.

After highs of 0.09% in September, the group of Health and Personal Care rose to 0.85% in October, especially due to the highs noticed in the personal hygiene products (2.35%), the biggest impact on the month’s index (0.06 pp). Moreover, pharmaceutical products, which recorded decrease in the previous month (-0.23%), moved on to a 0.54% growth, contributing with 0.02 pp to October’s result.

Transportation also rose in comparison to the previous month, going from 0.09% to 0.35%. Gasoline, which had  a slight decrease in September (-0.06%), recorded a high of 0.76% in October, changing between 0.18% in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre and 2.15% in the Metropolitan Area of Fortaleza. The prices of diesel (3.33%), ethanol (0.52%) and natural gas (0.23%) also increased, leading fuels’ result to a high of 0.77%.

The deflation noticed in Food and Beverages (-0.25%) is the result of the price fall in the group of food at home, which rebounded 0.38%. The major negative impacts were onions (-17.65%), with -0.04 pp, and potatoes (-14.00%), with -0.03 pp. The price of tomatoes (-6.10%) also rebounded, though in a softer way than in the previous month (-24.83%). Regarding growths, the highlights was meat, whose prices rose 0.59%, against the decrease of 0.38% recorded in September.

Food out of home remained stable (0.00%) in comparison to the previous month. While there was a decrease in meals (-0.13%), snacks edged up 0.20%.

The Housing (-0.23%) group recorded the second biggest negative change in this month’s index, influenced by the decreases noticed in the item electricity (-1,43%). Except for the Metropolitan Areas of Recife (0.14%) and Salvador (2.52%), all the other regions recorded fall in prices, ranging from -0.95% in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre to -3.31% in the Metropolitan Area of Fortaleza. It is worth highlighting that, in October, the yellow tariff flag entered in force, with an additional charge of R$1.50 per each 100kwh consumed. In September, the red tariff flag level 1 was in force, with an additional charge of R$4 per each 100kwh.

Also in Housing, the result of 0.18% from water and sewage fees is due to the adjustment of 4.87%, as of October 1^st, in the tariffs in effect in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (1.85%).

Regarding the Regional Indexes, three of the eleven surveyed regions recorded deflation from September to October, as shown in the following table. The smallest result was recorded in the the Metropolitan Area of Fortaleza (-0.08%), due the fall noticed in the item electricity (-3.31%). The highest result was in the Metropolitan Area of Belem (0.28%), influenced by high in the items personal hygiene (1.89%) and bottled gas (3.58%), both with an impact of 0.07 pp.

For the calculation of the IPCA-15, prices were collected from September 13 to October 11, 2019 (reference) and compared with those in effect from August 14 to September 12, 2019 (basis). The indicator refers to families with incomes of 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well Brasilia and Goiania. The methodology in use is the same as that of the IPCA, the difference is in the price collect period and in the geographic coverage.