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In September, IBGE forecasts high of 6.3% in 2019 crops

October 10, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 17, 2019 09h44 AM

The estimate for September 2019 for the national crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds points to a new record: 240.7 million metric tons, 6.3% higher than that of 2018 (226.5 million metric tons) and 0.4% above August's estimate. The last record crop of the country was in 2017 (238.4 million metric tons). The area to be harvested was estimated at 63.1 million hectares, growing 3.5% compared to 2018. Compared to the previous month, the estimated area to be harvested grew by 200.1 thousand hectares (0.3%). Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products of this group, together, accounted for 92.8% of the estimated production and 87.0% of the area to be harvested.

September's estimate for 2019 crop 240.7 million metric tons
2019  crop/2018 crop - change 6.3% (14.3 million metric tons more)
2019 crop / August's estimate - change 0.4% ( 997.3 thousand metric tons more)

In relation to 2018, there was an increase of 7.0% in the corn area (a decline of 1.9% in the corn 1st crop and a 10.7% rise for corn 2nd crop), of 2.3% in the soybean area and of 40.9% in the upland cotton area, with a decrease of 9.5% in the rice area. As for the production, there were drops of 4.3% for soybeans and of 12.0% for rice, as well as a 23.1% rise for corn (increase of 1.1% in the corn 1st crop and of 33.3% in the corn 2nd crop) and 39.0% for upland cotton. For soybeans, the expected production is 112.8 million metric tons, and for corn, a record production of 100.2 million metric tons (26.0 million metric tons of corn 1st crop and 74.1 million metric tons of corn 2nd crop).

The expected production for rice is 10.3 million metric tons and 6.9 million metric tons for cotton, a new record in the IBGE’s time series. Compared to the previous month, there was increase in the estimates of crop (1.3% or 1.3 million metric tons), cotton (5.0% or 324.7 thousand metric tons), beans (4.1% or 120.2 thousand metric tons), barley (6.3% or 24.5 thousand metric tons), orange (7.4% or 1.2 million metric tons) and tomatoes (2.5% or 96.5 thousand metric tons). There were decreases for oat (-1.9% or 18.7 thousand metric tons), potatoes (-1.1% or 42.7 thousand metric tons), coffea arabica (-4.4% or 96.3 thousand metric tons), coffea canephora (-1.3% or 12.1 thousand metric tons) and wheat (-5.9% or 343.5 thousand metric tons).

Among the Major Regions, the production volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded the following distribution: Central-West (111.2 million metric tons); South (77.5 million metric tons); Southeast (23.4 million metric tons); Northeast (19.2 million metric tons) and North (9.5 million metric tons). Against the last crop, there were increases of 6.2% in the North Region, of 10.1% in the Central-West Region, of 4.0% in the South Region, of 0,5% in the Northeast Region and of 2.1% in the Southeast Region. Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso was the major producer, with a participation of 28.0% in the national grain crop.


Compared with August, the highlights were the changes in the following production estimates: bean 3rd crop (13.6%), orange (7.4%), barley (6.3%), upland cotton (5.0%), bean 2nd crop (3.1%), tomatoes (2.5%), potatoes 2nd crop (1.9%), corn 2nd crop (1.4%), bean 1st crop (1.2%), corn 1st crop (1.2%), potatoes 1st crop (0.0%), coffea canephora (-1.3%), oat (-1.9%), coffea arabica (-4.4%), wheat (-5.9%) and potatoes 3rd crop (-6.5%). In absolute numbers, the highlights were orange (1,213,788 t), corn 2nd crop (1,001,926 t), upland cotton (324,661 t), corn 1st crop (298,210 t), tomatoes (96,527 t), bean 3rd crop (69,769 t), bean 2nd crop (35,473 t), barley (24,501 t), potatoes 2nd crop (22,023 t), bean 1st crop (14,986 t), potatoes 1st crop (0 t), coffea canephora (-12,068 t), oat (-18,705 t), potatoes 3rd crop (-64,720 t), coffea arabica (-96,270 t) and wheat (-343,515 t).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The production was of 6.9 million metric tons, an increase of 5.0% over August. In Mato Grosso, the biggest national cotton producer, the production increase was of 6.2% and reached 4.7 million metric tons, corresponding to 67.8% of the national crop. In Bahia, the second biggest producer, the production was reviewed with a 2.2% rise. In Goiás, there was an increase of 10.7%, due to the growth in the planted area. Rewarding prices, with the Chinese demand rise, as well as the good production and profitability of the previous crop, stimulated the growth in the planted area and the increase of investments. In comparison with 2018, cotton production estimates increased 46,1%, due to the growth of 40.9% in the planted area. The production increased 46.1% in Mato Grosso, 19.7% in Bahia and 79.5% in Goiás.

POTATOES – The Brazilian production estimate reached 3.8 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.1% against the previous month. In September, there were not changes for the 1st crop in relation to August, the production was of 1.7 million metric tons. For the 2nd crop, the production of Minas Gerais was reviewed with a 10.1% rise, reaching 478.1 thousand metric tons. Paraná and São Paulo productions were also reviewed, however, with decreases of 1.9% and 6.0%, respectively. Altogether, the 2nd crop production reached 1.2 million metric tons, an increase of 1.9% in relation to the previous month. For the 3rd crop, the estimate production was of 923,7 thousand metric tons, a decrease of 6.5% against August. São Paulo and Minas Gerais reported a reduction of 5.3% and 14.6% in their production estimates, and they are expected to reach 387.4 and 262.6 thousand metric tons, respectively, while Goiás reported an increase of 0.9%. In comparison to the previous year, the Brazilian production of potatoes fell by 0.3%.

COFFEE BEANS The production estimate was of 3.0 million metric tons or 50,3 million sacks (60-kg sack), a reduction of 16.0% in relation to 2018. The production fell 3.5% over the previous month.

For coffea arabica, the production estimate was of 2.1 million metric tons or 35.1 million sacks (60-kg sack), a drop of 4.4% in relation to August. In Minas Gerais, from August to September, the estimate production fell by 4.9% and should reach 1,489.8 thousand metric tons, against 1,566.9 thousand estimated in the previous month, a decrease of 77.1 thousand metric tons or 1.3 million sacks (60-kg sack). In São Paulo, the estimated production also fell by 5.6%. The Coffea arabica crop was affected with high heat and drought at an important period of its growth, which reduced the estimate of the average yield. Besides that, prices were not attractive and the production costs were relatively high. In relation to 2018, the production of coffea arabica fell by 21.8%, representing a “low year” due to the bienniality that is typical of this culture.

Concerning coffea cenephora, mostly known as conillon, the estimated production was of 911.4 thousand metric tons or 15.2 million sacks (60-kg sacks), dropping 1.3%. The production estimate for Bahia was of 96.0 thousand metric tons or 1.6 million sacks (60-kg sacks), a drop of 11.1% against August. Espírito Santo and Rondônia, the biggest producers of the country and responsible for 85.8% of the harvest total production, maintaining the figures from the previous month. Even with the retraction of 15.5% in the planting area in relation to August, the production of coffea canephora increased 1.3%. The highest productions were in Espírito Santo (7.4%) and in Rondônia (5.6%), and the lowest in Bahia (-31.6%). Espírito Santo and Rondônia production benefited from the weather this year.

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The winter Brazilian crops was estimated at 6.9 million metric tons, with wheat participating with 80.8% of the total or 5.5 million metric tons, oat participating with 14.1% or 966.9 thousand metric tons and barley participating with 6.1% or 416.1 thousand metric tons.

The planting area of wheat, main Brazilian winter crop, was of 2.1 million hectares. There was a decrease of 5.9% in the production estimate in relation of the previous month, due to the reduction of 5.8% in the average yield. In Paraná, the biggest producer with 43.2% of participation in the national production, the production estimate was of 2.4 million metric tons, 12.9% less than last month, due to frosts in its crops.

In Rio Grande do Sul, that will participate with 41.9% of the national production, the estimate was of 2.3 million metric tons, 0,5% higher than last month. In Southeast, Minas Gerais reported a production estimate of 247.2 thousand metric ton, an increase of 24.6% in relation to August. In São Paulo, there was a reduction of 11.3% in the production estimate, might be  harvested 250.2 thousand metric tons. In Central West, the production estimates Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás declined by 21.2 and 9.7%, respectively. Comparing with last year, the Brazilian wheat production reported an increase of 3.1%.

The estimate for the oat production (966.9 thousand metric tons) decreased 1.9% in relation to August, due to the reduction of 2.1% in the Rio Grande do Sul production, which represents 70.8% of the national production. Comparing with 2018, the oat production estimate increased 8.6%. For barley, the production estimate was of 416.1 thousand metric tons, with an increase of 6.3% against August. In Paraná the production estimate (257.8 thousand metric tons) increased 9.6%, and in Rio Grande do Sul (142.9 thousand metric tons) 1.4%, in relation to the previous month. Compared to 2018, the barley production estimate rose 28.0%.

BEAN SEED – The production was estimated at 3.1 million metric tons, increasing 4.1% against last month. Compared to 2018, the bean total production will be 2.9% higher. The 1st crop was estimate in 1.3 million metric tons, an increase of 1.2% in relation to August, which represented 14,986 metric tons. The highlight is for Goiás that had a rise in the production estimate of 17.8% against the previous month. Next, are Bahia - with a decrease of 5.9%, and São Paulo - with an increase of 6.6% in relation to August.

Compared to 2018, 1st crop production fell by 13.8%, with reductions in São Paulo (-27.1%), Paraná (-19.8%), Goiás (-17.2%), Ceará (-15.0%), Minas Gerais (-11.6%), Piauí (-14.8%), Santa Catarina (-20.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-10.0%), Paraíba (-8.2%) and the Federal District (-29,8%).  In contrast, in Bahia the production estimate increased 18.1%.

The 2nd crop was estimated with an increase of 3.1% against August. The estimates of São Paulo (+51.7%), Minas Gerais (+17.3%) and Paraná (+6.0%) affected in this rise. In Bahia, the production estimate fell by 21.0% or 31,200 less metric tons.

The 2nd crop production estimate was higher than that of 2018 by 16.9%. There were increases in the production estimate of Bahia (357.2%), Minas Gerais (35.3%), São Paulo (125.9%) Paraná (32.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (33.5%) and Goiás (25.3%). In contrast, Mato Grosso reduced its estimate by 49.9%. The highest participations in this crop production come from: Paraná (31.2%), Minas Gerais (17.2%), Mato Grosso (10.8%) and Bahia (10.0%).

Concerning the 3rd crop, the prospect is an increase of 13.6¨% in the production in relation to August. São Paulo had more influence in this outcome, with an increase of 120.0% in the production (54,000 metric tons). Other increases were also reported by Minas Gerais (4.9%) and Goiás (5.9%). In contrast, Mato Grosso do Sul reported a decrease of 62.3%. The 3rd crop production estimate is 27.7% higher than 2018. The Federation Units responsible for this rise was São Paulo (31.0% or 23,400 metric tons), Mato Grosso (112.2% or 76,777 metric tons and Federal District (101.7% or 5,490 metric tons).

ORANGES – The production estimated was of 17.7 million metric tons or 434.3 thousand boxes (40.8-kg boxes), an increase of 7.4% in relation of August. In São Paulo, the main producer and responsible for 77.0% of the national total, the production was estimated at 13.7 million metric tons or 334.6 million boxes (40.8-kg boxes), an increase of 9.7% against last month. Compared to 2018, the orange production grew 6.3%, affected by the São Paulo production that had an 8.5% rise due to the increase in productivity, reaching 35,000 kg/ha. São Paulo production stands out for its high technological level, and most of its production is aimed at the processing and production of juice, which is an important product in Brazilian exports.

CORN (grain) – Comparing with the last report, the production estimate had an increase of 1.3%, reaching 100.2 million metric tons, a new record in the IBGE’s time series. Altogether, an additional of 1.3 million metric tons occurred. In relation to the previous year, the production estimate is 23.1% higher. In the 1st crop of corn, the production reached 26.0 million metric tons, an increase of 1.2% against the previous report. Compared with 2018, the production estimate was 1.1% higher. In September, the states with reviewed production were: São Paulo (11.3% or 22.3 thousand metric tons), Minas Gerais (0.5% or 23.3 thousand metric tons), Paraná (0.6% or 19.9 thousand metric tons), Mato Grosso do Sul (28.2% or 28.4 thousand metric tons) and Goiás (0.2% or 3.6 thousand metric tons).

For the 2nd crop, the production estimate was of 74.1 million metric tons, an increase of 1.4% against the previous month, and was concentrated in the four biggest producers of the country:  Mato Grosso (42.1% of the total), Paraná (18.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (13.3%) and Goiás (13.6%). These Federation Units represent together 87.0% of the corn 2nd crop national production. This volume in the production of corn 2nd crop is a record in the IBGE’s time series, with 6.5 million metric tons over 2017, which until now had the higher production (67.6 million metric tons).

The most significant increases in the production estimate, in relation to August, were in: Minas Gerais (35.0% or 765.2 thousand metric tons,), Mato Grosso (1.2% or 382.2 thousand metric tons) and São Paulo (2.4% or 56.4 thousand metric tons). In contrast, Paraná (-0.4%), Goiás (-1.1%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-0.7%) reported declines in the production. Due to the early soybeans planting, there was a bigger period for the corn “planting window”. This fact had a positive effect on the average yield, which had a 20.4% rise, and might reach 5,833 kg/ha.

TOMATOES – The production estimate (4.0 million metric tons) increase was of 2.5% over August, due to the reviews of São Paulo, where the production estimate had an 11.4% rise. Some new planting areas were detected, with the producers investing more because of the recent increase in the product value. Other states that reported production increases in the month were: Goiás (0.3%), Minas Gerais (0.8%), Rio de Janeiro (0.4%) and Ceará (0.1%). Compared to 2018, tomato production fell by 2.0%, the planted area decreased 3.4% and the average yield rise 1.6%.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey for crop prospecting and following-up of the main agricultural products. Addressed to the crop information users’ demands, the surveys on cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and bean) and oilseeds (cottonseed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) were carried out with the collaboration of the National Supply Company (CONAB), an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA), keeping the standardization process of  the official crop estimates, which started in March 2007, for the  main Brazilian crops.