IPCA stays at -0.04% in September

October 09, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 10, 2019 03h54 PM

The Extended National Consumer Price Index - IPCA changed -0.04% in September, while the rate registered in August was 0.11%. This was the lowest figure for September since 1998, when the IPCA stayed at -0.22%. The cumulative index in the year stayed at 2.49% and, in the last 12 months, at 2.89%, standing below the index of 3.43% recorded in the immediately previous 12 months. The rate was 0.48% in September 2018.

Period RATE
September 2019 -0.04%
August 2019 0.11%
September 2018 0.48%
In 2019 2.49%
Cumulative in 12 months 2.89%

Three out of the nine groups surveyed registered a deflation between August and September, highlighted by Food and beverages (-0.43%), responsible for the biggest negative contribution to the September´s IPCA, -0.11 percentage points (p.p.). The biggest drop came from Household articles (-0.76%), which contributed with -0.03 p.p. to the month´s index. On the side of the highs, Health and personal care stood out with the biggest change (0.58%) and biggest positive impact (0.07 p.p.) on the month´s index. The other groups stood between the drop of 0.01% in Communication and the rise of 0.27% in Wearing apparel.

IPCA - Change and Impact by Group - monthly
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
August September August September
Overall Index 0.11 -0.04 0.11 -0.04
Food and Beverages -0.35 -0.43 -0.09 -0.11
Housing 1.19 0.02 0.19 0.00
Household articles 0.56 -0.76 0.02 -0.03
Wearing apparel 0.23 0.27 0.01 0.02
Transportation -0.39 0.00 -0.07 0.00
Health and Personal Care -0.03 0.58 0.00 0.07
Personal Expenses 0.31 0.04 0.04 0.01
Education 0.16 0.04 0.01 0.00
Communication 0.09 -0.01 0.00 0.00
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços

The group of Food and beverages (-0.43%) registered the most intense drop compared with the previous month (-0.35%), especially due to food away from home, whose rise changed from 0.53% in August to 0.04% in September. Meals recorded a drop in the prices (-0.06%) and snacks increased 0.17% against the change of 0.47% reported in the previous month.

On the other hand, food at home (-0.70%) fell for the fifth consecutive month, though less intensely than that recorded in August (-0.84%). The highlights were tomatoes (-16.17%), the biggest negative individual impact on the month´s index (-0.04 p.p.), potatoes (-8.42%), onion (-9.89%) and fruits (-1.79%). On the highs side, long-life milk (1.58%) and meat (0.25%) posted positive changes after the deflation reported in August (-0.33% and -0.75%, respectively).

In Household articles (-0.76%), the drops in the prices of household appliances and equipment (-2.26%) and of the items TV, sound and computers (-0.90%) contributed to the negative change reported in September.

In the group of Health and personal care (0.58%), the highlights were the items of personal hygiene, with 1.65% of change and 0.04 p.p. of contribution, the biggest positive impact on the September´s IPCA. In addition, the acceleration of the sub-item health plan (from 0.03% in August to 0.57% in September) was due to the complete appropriation of the monthly fraction of the adjustment of 7.35% approved on July 23 by the National Regulatory Agency for Private Health Insurance and Plans - ANS, to be applied to the new individual plans – those in force from 1999 onwards.

After the result of 1.19% in August, the group of Housing recorded a slight rise of 0.02% in September. Electricity (0.00%) remained stable compared with the previous month, mainly due to the maintenance of the red tariff flag level 1, which adds R$4.00 for each 100 kilowatt-hour consumed in the electricity bill. Belém (0.72%) faced an adjustment of 1.94% in the fare, in force since August 7. On this same date, the reduction of 6.48% in the residential fare in Vitória (0.10%) came into force, the positive change explained by the increase in PIS/COFINS. São Luís (-6.97%) reduced the fare by 3.94% since August 28.

Still in Housing, bottled gas (-0.17%) stood out, after the adjustment of 3.16% announced by Petrobras for the 13-kg cylinder in the refineries from September 9 onwards. The result of the water and sewage fees (0.09%) was due to the adjustments of 8.73% and 4.93% in Belo Horizonte (0.56%) and Vitória (0.32%), respectively, both of them in force since August 1st.

The group of Transportation (0.00%) remained stable between August and September. Fuel prices (0.12%) rose, leveraged by the rises of ethanol (0.46%) and diesel fuel (2.56%). On the other hand, gasoline (-0.04%) slightly dropped, though less intense than in the previous month (-0.45%) and whose areas varied between the deflation of 1.66% in Porto Alegre and the rise of 2.80% in Goiânia. Still on the drop side, the reduction of the airfare prices (-1.54%) stood out, impacting -0.01 p.p. on the month´s index.

Concerning the regional indexes, the biggest change took place in the municipality of Goiânia (0.41%), mainly due to the rise in the gasoline price (2.80%). The lowest index was registered in São Luís (-0.22%), due to the drop in electricity (-6.97%). On August 28, the fare practiced in the capital of Maranhão reduced by 3.94%.

IPCA - Change by area - monthly and cumulative in 12 months
Area Regional Weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
August September Year 12 months
Goiânia 3.59 0.11 0.41 2.13 2.79
Rio Branco 0.42 0.10 0.30 2.61 3.67
Salvador 6.12 0.04 0.14 2.32 3.05
Belém 4.23 -0.20 0.08 2.48 3.54
Curitiba 7.79 0.18 0.06 2.11 2.26
Aracaju 0.79 -0.47 0.05 2.81 3.71
Vitória 1.78 -0.50 -0.02 1.72 2.13
Campo Grande 1.51 -0.21 -0.04 2.30 2.77
Porto Alegre 8.40 -0.04 -0.04 2.43 3.00
São Paulo 30.67 0.33 -0.06 2.76 2.90
Fortaleza 2.91 0.33 -0.08 3.41 4.06
Recife 4.20 0.01 -0.09 2.65 2.94
Rio de Janeiro 12.06 -0.06 -0.13 2.37 2.98
Brasília 2.80 0.08 -0.17 1.80 2.11
Belo Horizonte 10.86 0.13 -0.18 2.49 2.82
São Luís 1.87 -0.31 -0.22 2.06 2.58
Brazil 100.00 0.11 -0.04 2.49 2.89

The IPCA has been calculated by the IBGE since 1980. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília. In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from August 28 to September 27, 2019 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from July 30 to August 27, 2019 (base).

INPC of September stays at -0.05%

The National Consumer Price Index - INPC changed -0.05% in September, while the rate registered in August was 0.12%. This was the lowest figure for September since 1998, when the INPC stayed at -0.31%. The cumulative change in the year stayed at 2.63% and, in relation to the last 12 months, the index retreated to 2.92%, below the rate of 3.28% registered in the 12 immediately previous months. The rate was 0.30% in September 2018.

Food products dropped 0.42% in September, while recording -0.49% in the previous month. The group of non-food products changed 0.11%, whereas it had recorded 0.39% in August.

Concerning the regional indexes, the municipality of Goiânia (0.37%) registered the highest change, due to the rise in the gasoline prices (2.80%). Conversely, the lowest index was recorded in the metropolitan area of Fortaleza (-0.21%), mainly due to the deflation of some food like fruits (-7.52%).

INPC - Change by area - monthly and cumulative in 12 months
Area Regional Weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
August September Year 12 months
Goiânia 4.15 0.19 0.37 2.37 3.18
Rio Branco 0.59 0.25 0.28 2.49 3.40
Curitiba 7.29 0.29 0.08 2.34 2.28
Salvador 8.75 -0.18 0.06 2.27 3.14
Belém 6.44 -0.24 0.04 2.50 3.43
Campo Grande 1.64 -0.07 0.02 2.32 2.60
Aracaju 1.29 -0.45 0.01 2.87 3.97
Porto Alegre 7.38 0.06 0.00 2.63 2.99
Vitória 1.83 -0.52 -0.01 2.25 2.27
São Paulo 24.24 0.38 -0.07 2.85 2.72
Brasília 1.88 0.32 -0.11 2.00 1.84
Recife 5.88 -0.01 -0.15 2.62 2.98
Rio de Janeiro 9.51 0.07 -0.15 2.59 2.61
São Luís 3.11 -0.36 -0.18 1.93 2.57
Belo Horizonte 10.60 0.22 -0.20 2.82 3.09
Fortaleza 5.42 0.21 -0.21 3.31 4.06
Brazil 100.00 0.12 -0.05 2.63 2.92

The INPC has been calculated by the IBGE since 1979. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 5 minimum wages, with a salaried head of the household. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília. In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from August 28 to September 27, 2019 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from July 30 to August 27, 2019 (base).