In August, industry rises in 11 of 15 places surveyed

October 08, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 10, 2019 04h26 PM

In the seasonally-adjusted series, 11 out of the 15 places surveyed increased with the rise of 0.8% in the national industry. The biggest advances were registered in Amazonas (7.8%) and Pará (6.8%), though São Paulo (2.6%), Ceará (2.4%), Pernambuco (2.1%), Rio de Janeiro (1.3%), Mato Grosso (1.1%) and Minas Gerais (1.0%) also increased above the national average (0.8%), whereas Paraná (0.3%), the Northeast Region (0.2%) and Goiás (0.2%) were the other places that recorded positive indexes in August. On the other hand, the steepest drop was reported in Rio Grande do Sul (-3.4%) and the other negative figures were in Santa Catarina (-1.4%), Espírito Santo (-1.4%) and Bahia (-0.1%). This information comes from the Monthly Survey of Industry - PIM Regional, whose support material is on the right side.

Table 1 - Monthly Survey of Industry - Regional Results - August 2019
Places  Change (%)
August 2019/     July 2019* August 2019/ August 2018 Cumulative in the Year Cumulative in the Last 12 Months
Amazonas 7.8 13.0 1.0 -1.4
Pará 6.8 12.8 -0.9 3.0
Northeast Region 0.2 -10.1 -4.4 -3.1
Ceará 2.4 0.5 1.7 1.4
Pernambuco 2.1 -9.2 -2.3 -0.8
Bahia -0.1 -9.3 -3.1 -1.6
Minas Gerais 1.0 -6.5 -5.0 -3.8
Espírito Santo -1.4 -16.2 -12.8 -7.2
Rio de Janeiro 1.3 4.5 -0.5 -1.3
São Paulo 2.6 0.7 -0.7 -2.1
Paraná 0.3 2.3 6.5 4.5
Santa Catarina -1.4 -3.1 3.2 3.2
Rio Grande do Sul -3.4 -6.3 4.9 6.6
Mato Grosso 1.1 -6.5 -4.3 -3.2
Goiás 0.2 0.5 1.9 -1.3
Brazil 0.8 -2.3 -1.7 -1.7
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally-adjusted series

In the 0.8% growth of the national industrial production, in the seasonally-adjusted series, 11 out of the 15 places surveyed increased from July to August 2019. Amazonas (7.8%) and Pará (6.8%) had the sharpest advances, with the former offsetting the 6.5% loss seen in the previous month; and the latter registering the fourth positive result in a row, accumulating an expansion of 83.2% in the period. The latter had also production recovery in some of the producing units of the mining and quarrying sector which had been affected by rupture of the mining tailing dam in the Brumadinho (MG) region. It explains the positive behavior of the Pará industry in recent months. São Paulo (2.6%), Ceará (2.4%), Pernambuco (2.1%), Rio de Janeiro (1.3%), Mato Grosso (1.1%) and Minas Gerais (1.0%) also grew above the national average (0.8%), whereas Paraná (0.3%), Northeast Region (0.2%) and Goiás (0.2%) close the set of places with positive indices in August 2019.

On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul (-3.4%) had the sharpest drawback this month and the second negative rate in a row in this comparison, accumulating a loss of 5.8% in the period. The other negative figures were in Santa Catarina (-1.4%), Espírito Santo (-1.4%) and Bahia (-0.1%).

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average for the industry overall had no change (0.0%) in the quarter ended in August 2019, over the previous month's result, after having registered a prevailing downward trend since September 2018. Five of the fifteen places surveyed pointed to negative moving averages this month: Pernambuco (-1.9%), Bahia (-1.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.4%), Northeast Region (-1.2%) and Santa Catarina (-1.1%). On the other hand, Pará (4.6%) and Mato Grosso (2.0%) registered the sharpest advances in August 2019.

IN relation to August 2018, the industrial sector fell 2.3% in August 2019, with decreases in eight of the fifteen places surveyed. It is worth mentioning that August 2019 (22 days) had one less business day than the same month in the previous year (23).  This month, Espírito Santo (-16.2%) and the Northeast Region (-10.1%) recorded two-digit drops and the most intense ones, driven, mainly by the decreased in the sectors of mining and quarrying industries (crude petroleum oil, iron ores - pelleted or sintered, and natural gas), pulp, paper and paper products (cellulose) and food products (chocolate candies and chocolate bars and granulated sugar), in the first place; and of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (cars), other chemicals (ammonium, urea, unsaturated ethylene, manure or fertilizers with nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, sodium hydroxide, polyvinyl chloride and unsaturated propylene), food products (refined, granulates and VHP sugar, cookies and crackers, ice cream and popsicles and dried pasta) and pulp, paper and paper products (cellulose), in the second place.

Bahia (-9.3%), Pernambuco (-9.2%), Mato Grosso (-6.5%), Minas Gerais (-6.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-6.3%) and Santa Catarina (-3.1%) close the set of  places with production drops this month.

On the other hand, Amazonas (13.0%) and Pará (12.8%) had the biggest highs in August 2019, leveraged , to a great extent, by the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (motor gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oils and naphthas for petrochemicals), computer, electronic and optical products (TVs), other transportation equipment (motorcycles, pieces and accessories) and machinery and equipment (wall and window air conditioners - including splits), in the first place; and mining and quarrying industries (iron ores - raw or benefited) and basic metals (aluminum oxide, pig iron and unrwought non-alloy aluminum) in the second place.

Rio de Janeiro (4.5%), Paraná (2.3%), São Paulo (0.7%), Goiás (0.5%) and Ceará (0.5%) also had positive rates this month.

With the reduction in the growth pace seen in the last months in the monthly index, in the four-month analysis, the industrial average, dropping 0.9% in the May-August 2019 period, indicates reduction in the intensity over the result f the first four-month period of the year (-2.6%), all comparisons against the same periods a year ago.

 In this same kind of comparison, eight of the fifteen places surveyed also recorded pace gain, with a highlight to Pará (-7.8% to 4.6%), Amazonas (-3.0% to 5.5%), Rio de Janeiro (-2.9% to 2.0%), São Paulo (-2.6% to 0.9%) and Goiás (0.1% to 3.0%).  On the other hand, Espírito Santo (-10.2% to -15.2%), Minas Gerais ( -3.9% to -6.1%), Northeast Region (-3.4% to -5.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (6.0% to 3.9%) and Pernambuco (-1.3% to -3.2%) indicated the sharpest decreases period both periods.

Table 2 - Monthly Industrial Survey - Regional Results
(Base: Same period in the previous year)
Places Percentage change (%)
3rd four-month period/2018 1st four-month period/2019 2nd four-month period/2019
Amazonas -6.1 -3.0 5.5
Pará 10.7 -7.8 4.6
Região Nordeste -0.7 -3.4 -5.4
Ceará 1.0 1.0 2.3
Pernambuco 1.7 -1.3 -3.2
Bahia 1.3 -2.8 -3.4
Minas Gerais -1.5 -3.9 -6.1
Espírito Santo 3.7 -10.2 -15.2
Rio de Janeiro -2.7 -2.9 2.0
São Paulo -4.8 -2.6 0.9
Paraná 0.7 6.3 6.7
Santa Catarina 3.3 3.0 3.4
Rio Grande do Sul 10.3 6.0 3.9
Mato Grosso -1.0 -4.2 -4.4
Goiás -7.2 0.1 3.0
Brazil -1.6 -2.6 -0.9
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

The cumulative index in the year, over the same period in the previous year, decreased in nine of the fifteen places surveyed, with a highlight to Espírito Santo (-12.8%) and Minas Gerais (-5.0%), pushed mainly by the drops seen in mining and quarrying industries (crude petroleum oils, iron ores - pelleted or sintered) and pulp, paper and paper products (cellulose), in the first place; and mining and quarrying industries (raw or benefited iron ores), in the second place. The Northeast Region (-4.4%), Mato Grosso (-4.3%), Bahia (-3.1%) and Pernambuco (-2.3%) also had the sharpest drops over the industrial average (-1.7%), whereas Pará (-0.9%), São Paulo (-0.7%) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.5%) closed the set of places with drops in this indicator.

On the other hand, Paraná (6.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (4.9%) indicate the greatest advances in the cumulative index of the year, pressed, mainly, by the activities of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (cars and tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers) food products (frozen poultry nd giblets, animal food, granulated sugar and frozen beef) and machinery and equipment (harvesting machines) in the first place; and motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (cars, trailers and semi-trailers and bodies for buses), in the second. Santa Catarina (3.2%), Goiás (1.9%), Ceará (1.7%) and Amazonas (1.0%) also had positive results in the cumulative indicator from January to August 2019.

The cumulative index in the last twelve months fell 1.7% in August 2019, with loss of ace over the previous months (-1.3%), keeping the predominantly downward trend started in July 2018 (3.2%).

In regional terms, ten out of the 15 places surveyed decreased, but nine presented a lower dynamism compared to July. Pernambuco (1.1% to -0.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (8.4% to 6.6%), Espírito Santo (-5.9% to -7.2%), Northeast Region (-1.9% to -3.1%), Bahia (-0.6% to -1.6%), Santa Catarina (4.0% to 3.2%) and Mato Grosso (-2.4% to -3.2%) had the main losses between July and August 2019. Conversely, in Amazonas (-3.0% to -1.4%), Goiás (-1.7% to -1.3%) and Pará (2.8% to 3.0%), the industrial activity increased its pace between these two periods.