In July, industry shrinks in eight of the 15 places surveyed

September 10, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 26, 2019 03h02 PM

In July 2019, in the seasonally adjusted series, eight of the 15 surveyed locations showed negative rates, in line with the decline (-0.3%) of the national industry. The most significant setbacks were in Amazonas (-6.2%) and Pernambuco (-3.9%). On the other hand, the highest increases were in Rio de Janeiro (6.8%) and Mato Grosso (5.5%). These data are from the Monthly Survey of Industry - Regional Edition (PIM). For the complete publication and further information, see the support material.

In July, eight out of fifteen surveyed places recorded negative rates, following the rebound (-0.3%) in the national industry, in the seasonally adjusted series. The sharpest rebounds were in Amazonas (-6.2%) and Pernambuco (-3.9%), with the first one interrupting two months of highs, a period that has a cumulative growth of 2.6%; the last one recording the third consecutive negative result and accumulating losses of 8.6%. The Northeast Region (-2.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (-2.4%), Ceará (-1.5%), São Paulo (-1.4%) and Bahia (-1.3%) also fell  below the national average  (-0.3%), while Santa Catarina (-0.3) closed the set of places with negative indexes in July.

Regional Results of Industry - July 2019
Places  Change (%)
July 2019/June 2019* July 2019/July 2018 Cumulative from January-July Cumulative in th Last 12 Months
Amazonas -6.2 0.3 -0.6 -3.0
Pará 0.5 3.4 -3.1 2.8
Região Nordeste -2.6 -7.9 -3.4 -1.8
Ceará -1.5 1.9 2.9 2.0
Pernambuco -3.9 -10.2 -1.6 0.8
Bahia -1.3 -5.6 -2.1 -0.6
Minas Gerais 0.3 -6.5 -4.7 -3.3
Espírito Santo 1.7 -14.2 -12.2 -5.9
Rio de Janeiro 6.8 4.8 -1.0 -1.1
São Paulo -1.4 -2.7 -1.0 -2.2
Paraná 2.0 4.8 7.2 4.8
Santa Catarina -0.3 1.4 4.2 4.0
Rio Grande do Sul -2.4 1.8 6.9 8.4
Mato Grosso 5.5 -3.2 -4.2 -2.6
Goiás 1.7 2.1 2.2 -1.7
Brazil -0.3 -2.5 -1.7 -1.3
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria 
* Seasonally-adjusted Series

On the other hand, Rio de Janeiro (6.8%) and Mato Grosso (5.5%) recorded the sharpest advances this month, with the first one eliminating the reduction of 5.8% of the previous month; and the second recovering the losses of 3.8% accumulated in May and June. The other positive rates were recorded by Paraná (2.0%), Goiás (1.7%), Espírito Santo (1.7%), Pará (0.5%) and Minas Gerais (0.3%).

In the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average in industry rebounded 0.4% in the quarter ended in July 2019, over the levels of the previous month, and kept the predominant downward trend from August 2018 on. In regional terms, also regarding this index, nine of fifteen surveyed places recorded negative rates. The sharpest retreat was in Pernambuco (-2.9%), Northeast Region (-1.5%), Bahia (-1.3%), São Paulo (-1.2%), Amazonas (-1.2%), Santa Catarina (-1.1%) and Ceará (-1.1%). The highest advances were in Pará (16.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (2.8%).

In relation to July 2018, the industry sector edged down 2.5% and seven of the fifteen surveyed places followed the slump. It is worth highlighting that July 2019 (23 days) had one more business day than July 2018 (22). In July, Espírito Santo (-14.2%) and Pernambuco (-10.2%) recorded the sharpest rebounds, under pressure, mainly by the decreases noticed in the sectors of mining and quarrying and pulp, paper and paper products (pulp), in the first area; and other chemicals products, other transportation equipment and food, in the second one. Northeast Region (-7.9%), Minas Gerais (-6.5%), Bahia (-5.6%), Mato Grosso (-3.2%) and São Paulo (-2.7%) closed the set of places with output retreats this month.

On the other hand, the biggest highs were in Paraná (4.8%) and in Rio de Janeiro (4.8%), stimulated, mainly, by the positive performance in the activities of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (vehicles, tractor-truck for trailers and semi-trailers and trucks) and machinery and equipment (harvesting machinery and farm tractor), in the first one; and in the mining and quarrying (crude petroleum oil and natural gas, in the second one. Pará (3.4%), Goiás (2.1%), Ceará (1.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.8%), Santa Catarina (1.4%) and Amazonas (0.3%) also recorded positive rates this month.

Regarding the period of May-July 2019, the industry sector retreated 0.5%, a softer decrease than in the first quarter of 2019 (-2.6%), both comparisons against the same period a year ago. In this same kind of comparison, eleven of fifteen surveyed places also recorded an increased pace, with highlights to Pará (from -7.8% to 1.9%), Amazonas (from -3.0% to 3.0%), Rio de Janeiro (from -2.9% to 1.6%), Goiás (from 0.1% to 4.2%) and São Paulo (from -2.6% to 0.7%). Conversely, the sharpest retreats between both periods were in Espírito Santo (from -10.2% to -14.8%) and Minas Gerais (from -3.6% to -6.0%).

Monthly Survey of Industry - Regional Results
(Base: Same period a year ago)
Places Variação Percentual (%)
Last four months/2018 First four months/2019 May-Jul/2019
Amazonas -6.1 -3.0 3.0
Pará 10.7 -7.8 1.9
Região Nordeste -0.7 -3.3 -3.6
Ceará 1.4 1.7 4.5
Pernambuco 1.7 -1.3 -2.1
Bahia 1.3 -2.8 -1.2
Minas Gerais -1.5 -3.6 -6.0
Espírito Santo 3.7 -10.2 -14.8
Rio de Janeiro -2.7 -2.9 1.6
São Paulo -4.8 -2.6 0.7
Paraná 0.2 6.3 8.3
Santa Catarina 3.3 3.0 5.8
Rio Grande do Sul 9.9 6.0 7.9
Mato Grosso -1.0 -4.6 -3.7
Goiás -7.2 0.1 4.2
Brazil -1.6 -2.6 -0.5
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

In the cumulative index of the year, against the same period of previous year, the reduction noticed in the national production achieved ten out of fifteen surveyed places, with highlights in Espírito Santo (-12.2%) and Minas Gerais (-4.7%), under pressure, mainly, by rebounds noticed in industries of mining and quarrying and pulp, paper and paper products (pulp), in the first one; and in the mining and quarrying industry, in the second one. Mato Grosso (-4.2%), Northeast region (-3.4%), Pará (-3.1%) and Bahia (-2.1%) also recorded negative rates under the industry average (-1.7%), while Pernambuco (-1.6%), São Paulo (-1.0%), Rio de Janeiro (-1.0%) and Amazonas (-0.6%) closed the set of places with outputs decrease in the cumulative index of the year.

Conversely, Paraná (7.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (6.9%) recorded the sharpest advances in the cumulative index of the year, stimulated, mainly, by the positive behavior of activities of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, food and machinery and equipment, in the first one; and of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies and metal products, in the second one. Santa Catarina (4.2%), Ceará (2.9%) and Goiás (2.2%) also recorded positive rates in the cumulative of the year.

The cumulative index of the last twelve months retreated 1.3% in July 2019, indicating a decreased pace in comparison to previous month (-0.8%) and holding the prevailing downward trend since July 2018 (3.2%). Nine out of fifteen surveyed places recorded negative rates in July 209, but thirteen indicated less dynamism compared to June indexes. Pernambuco (from 2.5% to 0.8%), Espírito Santo (from -0.9% to -1.8%), Pará (from 3.7% to 2.8%), Mato Grosso (from 1.9% to -2.6%), Bahia (from -0.1% to -0.6%), Santa Catarina (from 4.6% to 4.0%) and São Paulo (from -1.7% to -2.2%) recorded the major losses between June and July 2019, while Goiás (from -2.3% to -1.7%) and Ceará (from 1.9% to 2.0%) recorded gains between both periods.

Monthy Survey of Industry - Regional Results
Cumulative Index in the Last Twelve Months
(Base: Last previous 12 months)
Places Percentage Changes (%)
June/2019 July/2019
Amazonas -2.5 -3.0
Pará 3.7 2.8
Northeast Region -0.9 -1.8
Ceará 1.9 2.0
Pernambuco 2.5 0.8
Bahia -0.1 -0.6
Minas Gerais -3.0 -3.3
Espírito Santo -4.4 -5.9
Rio de Janeiro -0.7 -1.1
São Paulo -1.7 -2.2
Paraná 4.9 4.8
Santa Catarina 4.6 4.0
Rio Grande do Sul 9.3 8.4
Mato Grosso -1.9 -2.6
Goiás -2.3 -1.7
Brazil -0.8 -1.3
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria