In August, IBGE forecasts high of 5.9% in 2019 grain crops

September 10, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 11, 2019 01h33 PM

In August, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2019 was estimated at 239.8 million metric tons, a new record for the country's grain crops, 5.9% higher than 2018 (13.3 million more metric tons) and stable (0.0%) in relation to the one released in July (108.1 more thousand metric tons). The estimate of the area to the harvested, in turn, was 62.9 million hectares, 3.2% higher than that of 2018 (1.9 million more hectares) and stable (0.0%) over the previous month's estimate (15,988  less hectares). The previous record was the 2017 crop, with 238.4 million metric tons of grain.

August estimate for 2019 239.8 million metric tons
2019 crop/2018 crop - change 5.9% (+ 13.3 million metric tons)
August 2019 / July 2019 0.0% (+108.1 thousand metric tons)

Rice, corn and soybean represented 92.7% of the production estimate and account por 87.2% of the areas to be harvested. In relation to 2018, there was an increase of 6.8% in the corn area and of 2.3% in the soybean area, and a 10.3% decrease in the rice area. As to production, there were drops of 3.9% for soybeans and of 12.7% for rice, and a 21.5% rise for corn. For further information, access the support material of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA).

 

Among the Major Regions, the production volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was distributed as follows: Central-West, 111.1 million metric tons; South, 77.9 million metric tons; Southeast, 22.2 million metric tons; Northeast, 19.2 million metric tons and North, 9.4 million metric tons. Compared to 2018, there were increases of 5.0% in the North, 10.0% in the Central-West, 4.5% in the South and 0.5% in the Northeast, and a decrease of 3.1% in the Southeast. Regarding Federation Units, Mato Grosso leads as the largest national producer of grains, with a 28.1% share.

Highlights in August 2019's estimates

In August, compared to the previous month, the highlights were the changes in the following production estimates: sorghum (3.4%), tomatoes (1.5%), beans 3rd crop (0.8%), corn 2nd crop ( 0.4%), wheat (0.3%), corn 1st crop (-0.8%), oats (-1.5%), beans 2nd crop (-2.5%), beans 1st crop (- 6.8%) and barley (-6.9%). In absolute numbers, the highlights were corn 2nd crop (282,499 t), sorghum (83,650 t), tomatoes (58,672 t), wheat (14,678 t), beans 3rd crop (4,109 t), oats (-14,639 t), barley (28,800 t), crop 2nd bean (-29,018 t), crop 1st bean (-48,831 t) and crop 1st corn (-194,439 t).

WINTER CEREALS (in grain) – The Brazilian crop was estimated at 7.2 million metric tons, with wheat accounting for 80.8% of the total (5.8 million metric tons), oats participating with 13.7% (985.6 thousand metric tons) and barley participating with 5.5% (391.6 thousand metric tons).

Wheat is the main Brazilian winter crop. The planted area reached 2.1 million hectares, an increase of 2.2% over the previous month. The estimate of production grew 0.3%. In August, Paraná, the largest Brazilian producer, with a 46.7% share, estimated a production of 2.7 million metric tons, 0.4% lower than the previous month. Rio Grande do Sul, with a 39.3% contribution, and Santa Catarina kept the rates of the previous month. In Goiás, there was a 33.7% increase in production estimates.

The estimate for oat production was 985.6 thousand metric tons, a decline of 1.5% over the previous month, due to the 7.6% reduction in production in Paraná. Until August, only 3.0% of the area was harvested in the state. In the country, the area to be harvested should reach 457.0 thousand hectares. Compared to the previous year, the estimated production of oats showed growth of 10.7%.

For barley, the estimated production was 391,600 metric tons, a decline of 6.9% over the previous month. The area to be harvested reached 107.1 thousand hectares and the average yield 3.655 kg/ha, the latter with retraction of 6.9%. Compared to the previous year, the estimated barley production grew by 20.5%. The planted area of 107.1 thousand hectares increased by 6.7% and the average yield increased by 12.9%.

BEAN GRAINS – Production was estimated at 2.9 million metric tons, a 2.4% decline over the previous month. Compared to the 2018 crop, total bean production should be 1.1% lower. Beans 1st crop is estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, a decrease of 3.6% over July estimate, which represents 48,831 metric tons. The highlight is the Northeast region, which had the estimated production reduced by 9.8%. The Federation Units that most influenced the result were: Minas Gerais (-4.8%), Ceará (-11.7%), Piauí (-13.8%), and Paraíba (-37.7%). Unstable weather wa the main cause for the reduction in the area and in the average yield. The annual comparison for the first crop shows a 14.8% reduction in production. Several Federation Units reduced their production: Paraná (-19.8%), Minas Gerais (-12.5%), São Paulo (-31.6%), Ceará (-14.1%), Goiás (-29.7%), Piauí (-14.8%), Santa Catarina (-20.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-10.0%) and the Federal District (-29.8%). In contrast, Bahia increased its production by 25.5%.

Beans 2nd crop was estimated with a decline of 2.5% over July. Paraná had a 2.1% decrease in production, which represented 7,260 metric tons. Minas Gerais showed a 1.5% lower production, representing a reduction of 2,625 metric tons. Goiás estimated a decrease of 2.6% in production (2,010 metric tons), while Alagoas, with a production of 16,400 metric tons, showed a 28.7% decline (6,587 metric tons). Production estimates for the second crop were 13.4% higher than in 2018. The Northeast Region had an influence on this result, given the increases in production estimates for Alagoas (79.8%), Ceará (35.5%), Pernambuco (17.6%) and Bahia (478.5%), the latter contributing to the largest increase in terms of production volume, with 123.1 thousand metric tons. Paraná was also important, forecasting a 25.4% increase in production. Other Federation Units with production increases were: Minas Gerais (15.3%), Goiás (25.3%), São Paulo (49.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (37.8%) and Rio Grande do Sul (11.4%).

Beans 3rd crop was estimates at 513.6 thousand metric tons, with probability of  0.8% increase in production over July. Goiás was the Federation Unit with the greatest influence on this result, with a 2.0% increase in production, which represented 2,630 metric tons. The estimate for the 3rd crop of beans is 12.5% higher than in 2018. The Federation Units responsible for this increase were Mato Grosso, with 112.0% (76,645 metric tons), the Federal District, with 101.7% (5,490 metric tons), Minas Gerais, with 3.7% (6,095 metric tons) and Paraná, with 48.0% (979 metric tons). Of note is the fact that in most states the third crop of beans is cultivated with irrigation, with a higher production cost, so a good price of the product is an essential factor for producers to make up their minds.

CORN GRAIN – Compared to the previous month, the estimated production grew 0.1%, totaling 98.9 million metric tons, a new production record. As a whole, 88,060 metric tons were added. Compared to the previous year, the production estimate is 21.5% higher.

In corn 1st crop, production reached 25.7 million metric tons, a decrease of 0.8% compared to July. Compared to the previous year, the production estimate was 0.1% lower. In Piauí, production declined 6.4%, reaching 1.5 million metric tons, 3.2% higher than in 2018. Other Federation Units that reported reduction in production were: Ceará (-13.3%) , Rio Grande do Norte (-2.5%), Paraíba (-39.4%) and Pernambuco (-17.2%).

For the 2nd crop, production is estimated at 73.1 million metric tons, 0.4% up on the previous month, and is concentrated  in the four largest producers in the country: Mato Grosso (42.3% of the total), Paraná (18.8 %), Mato Grosso do Sul (13.7%) and Goiás (13.3%). Together, these Federation Units together account for 88.1% of national production of corn 2nd crop. This production volume of corn 2nd crop is a record, having surpassed by 5.5 million metric tons that of 2017, which had been, up to then, the largest production obtained in the country, when it registered 67.6 million metric tons. The most significant increases in the production volume, compared to the previous month, were estimated in Piauí (9.6%), Ceará (35.1%) and, mainly, Goiás (5.1%), with the latter representing 498.0 thousand metric tons.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The estimated production reached 2.6 million metric tons, an increase of 3.4% over the previous month. The largest increase in production was reported by Piauí. In the state of Goiás, responsible for 42.3% of the national crop, the increase was 2.2% in production. Compared to the previous year, production grew by 13.9%, led by the increase in production in Goiás (18.9%) and Minas Gerais (17.0%), which together account for almost 80% of the Brazilian production of this cereal.

TOMATOES – The Brazilian production was estimated at 3.9 million metric tons, an increase of 1.5% over the previous month. The growth is due to the reviews of Goiás, which increased its production by 6.4%. This Federation Unit is the largest national producer, responsible for 31.7% of the crop, in which the grape tomatoes prevail and where pulp extraction factories are installed. The high average yield (91,083 kg/ha), the highest in the country, is due to high technology and the use of irrigation. Minas Gerais, the third largest national producer, reported a decrease of 2.0% in production due to the smaller planted area, which should reach 6,894 hectares with a predominance of staked tomatoes. Compared to the previous year, tomato production fell by 4.3%.