In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output fell 0.3% in July 2019 against June, the third negative result in a row. The cumulative loss in this period was 1.2%. In the seasonally-unadjusted series, the industry retreated 2.5% compared with July 2018, after dropping 5.9% in June. The cumulative index in the year stayed at -1.7%. The cumulative rate over the last 12 months (-1.3%) pointed out to a loss of pace against the result of June (-0.8%) and maintained the predominantly downward path started in July 2018 (3.2%). The data are from the Monthly Industrial Survey - PIM-PF Brazil. See the complete publication and more information in the support material.

Eleven of 26 sectors surveyed decrease in July

In the retreat of 0.3% in the industrial activity between June and July 2019, 11 out of the 26 sectors surveyed recorded a drop in the output.                                                                                           Among the activities, the major negative influences were other chemicals (-2.6%), beverages (-4.0%) and food products (-1.0%). The first two dropped after positive rates in June (0.9% and 1.5%, respectively); conversely, the sector of food products posted the third consecutive month of drops, accruing a loss of 3.3% in this period.

Other relevant negative contributions were: computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-3.3%, offsetting the advance of 0.8% last month) and electrical machinery and apparatus (-2.6%, accruing a loss of 4.6% along two consecutive months). Among the 15 sectors that increased the production, the most important performance was registered by mining and quarrying industries, which rose 6.0%, the third consecutive positive rate,thus accruing an expansion of 18.5% in this period. These positive figures interrupted four consecutive months of dropping production, a period in which it accrued a reduction of 24.5%.

Other relevant positive impacts were recorded in the sectors of machinery and equipment (6.0%), pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (6.5%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (1.5%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (8.4%), pulp, paper and paper products (2.6%), and toiletries, soaps, cleaning and personal hygiene products (6.2%). It is worth mentioning that these activities reported a negative result last month: -6.9%, -3.6%, -1.0%, -5.2%, -6.8% and -3.0%, respectively.

Among the major economic categories, intermediate goods (-0.5%) and capital goods (-0.3%) posted the negative rates in July 2019, both of them registering the second consecutive month of drop and accruing a reduction of 1.0% and 0.6% in this period, respectively. On the other hand, the sectors producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.4%) and durable consumer goods (0.5%) recorded the positive figures this month, both of them offsetting part of the cumulative retreat in the months of May and June: -2.4% and -2.6%.

Quarterly moving average changes -0.4%

Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average fell 0.4% in the quarter ended in July 2019 and maintained the predominantly downward trend started in August 2018. Among the major economic categories, durable consumer goods (-0.7%) posted the biggest decline and interrupted the positive behavior since February 2019, when it accrued an expansion of 4.8%. The sectors producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.4%) and capital goods (-0.1%) also dropped, the former retreating once again after being stable in the months of May and June; and the latter interrupting four consecutive months of advances, a period in which it accrued a growth of 6.9%. Conversely, the segment of intermediate goods (0.1%) was the only one to rise this month and interrupted the downward trend started in January 2019.

Industrial output retreats 2.5% in relation to July 2018

Compared with July 2018, the industrial sector fell 2.5%, with negative figures in one out of the four major economic categories, 15 out of the 26 sectors, 48 out of the 79 groups and 54.3% of the 805 products surveyed. July 2019 (23 days) had one more business day than July 2018 (22).

Among the activities, mining and quarrying industries (-8.8%) exerted the biggest negative influence, followed by the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-5.9%), food products (-2.3%), pulp, paper and paper products (-9.3%), beverages (-8.0%), other chemicals (-4.2%), other transportation equipment (-12.5%), wood products (-10.3%), rubber and plastic products (-2.7%) and maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-6.0%).  

Among the 11 activities that expanded the output, the major influences were: motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.5%), pharmochemicals and pharmaceuticals (8.7%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (9.0%), fabricated metal products (5.2%), leather, traveling articles and footwear (7.3%) and machinery and equipment (2.0%).

Intermediate goods (-5.4%) registered the only drop among the major economic categories. On the other hand, capital goods (6.6%) recorded the biggest growth this month, whereas semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.7%) and durable consumer goods (1.0%) posted more moderate advances.

The sector of intermediate goods (-5.4%) registered the second consecutive negative rate, though with a smaller drop than that registered in the previous month (-6.3%).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  This result was mainly explained by the drops in: products associated with the activities of mining and quarrying industries (-8.8%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-9.8%), food products (-6.2%), pulp, paper and paper products (-9.9%), other chemicals (-4.1%), machinery and equipment (-5.1%), rubber and plastic products (-1.9%), textiles (-3.3%) and basic metals (-0.3%), whereas the positive pressure was exerted by fabricated metal products (4.8%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.1%) and non-metallic mineral products (0,6%). It is also worth mentioning the positive figures recorded by the groups of typical inputs for civil construction (2.4%) and packaging (1.4%), both of them reversing the drop in the previous month (-3.8% and -3.3%, respectively).

The segment of capital goods expanded 6.6% in July 2019, after retreating 4.3% last June, when it interrupted two consecutive months of positive rates in this comparison: April (0.1%) and May (21.2%). The result was influenced, to a large extent, by the advance noticed in the group of capital goods for transportation equipment (6.9%). The other positive rates were registered by capital goods for industrial use (5.9%), for electricity (3.0%) and for construction (0.1%). Conversely, the negative impacts were registered by the groups of capital goods for agriculture (-10.8%) and for mixed use (-3.8%).

The segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods rose 1.7%, after declining 5.0% last June, mostly explained by the expansion in the group of semi-durable (4.2%). It is worth mentioning the positive results recorded by the groups of non-durable (2.0%), fuels (1.9%) and food and beverages for domestic consumption (0.4%).

The segment of durable consumer goods advanced 1.0% against July 2018, after retreating 6.1% last June, when it interrupted two consecutive months of increasing production: April (0.9%) and May (28.1%). This month, the sector was particularly leveraged by the group of brown goods (26.4%), highlighted by the increasing manufacture of TV sets. It is also worth mentioning the positive rates coming from white goods (9.9%) and furniture (2.4%). On the other hand, the major negative impacts were registered by cars (-4.7%), motorcycles (-4.4%) and other household appliances (-0.2%).

Industry declines 1.7% in cumulative rate in the year

The industrial sector dropped in one out of the four major economic categories, 14 out of the 26 sectors, 43 out of the 79 groups and 53.3% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, mining and quarrying industries (-12.1%) exerted the biggest negative influence, pressed, to a great extent, by iron ore. It is worth highlighting the drops in the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.4%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-9.8%), other transportation equipment (-11.4%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-4.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (-2.5%), rubber and plastic products (-1.9%) and wood products (-5.5%).

Conversely, the major influence among the 12 activities that expanded the output was motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (3.5%). Other relevant positive contributions on the national overall came from fabricated metal products (5.7%), beverages (3.9%), non-metallic mineral products (2.5%) and machinery and equipment (1.4%).

Among the major economic categories, the profile of the results for the first seven months of 2019 pointed out a lower dynamism for intermediate goods (-3.0%). On the other hand, durable consumer goods (1.7%), capital goods (1.5%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) registered positive rates in the cumulative index in the year.