In June 2019, the national industrial production fell 0.6% over May (seasonally-adjusted series). It was the second negative result in a row. The cumulative loss in this period was of 0.7%. In the comparison with June 2018 (non-adjusted series), industry fell 5.9%, after having expanded 7.4% in May, when it interrupted two consecutive months of decrease: March (-6.2%) and April (-3.9%).

The industrial sector accumulated decrease of 1.6% in the first six months of 2019. The cumulative index in the last 12 months (-0.8%) registered a pace of decline over May result (0.0%) and kept the prevailing downward trend initiated in July 2018 (3.3%). The data are from the Monthly Survey of Industry - Physical Production (PIM-PF) Brazil. See the complete publication and further information in the support material of the survey.

17 out of the 26 surveyed sectors recorded declines in June

The four major economic categories and 17 of the 26 surveyed sectors indicated production decrease in the rebound of 0.6% of industrial activities from May to June 2019. Among the activities, the principal negative influence was recorded by food products (-2.1%), machinery and equipment (-6.5%) and motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-1.7%), all of them indicating a second consecutive month of production decrease and accumulating in the period, respectively, losses of 2.3%, 8.7% and 5.3%.

Other relevant negative contributions were: basic metals (-1.7%), pharmaceutical products (-3.8%), pulp, paper and paper products (-2.2%), other transportation equipment (-6.5%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-5.0%), manufacture of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-0.6%), and manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus (-2.0%). On the other hand, among the nine sectors that expanded their production, the performance of major importance was recorded by mining and quarry industries, which increased 1.4%, the second consecutive positive rate, accumulating, thus, a rise of 11.0%. These positive results interrupted four months in a row of production falls, a period that accumulated a decrease of 25.6%. Other relevant positive impacts were recorded by wood products (7.5%), beverages (1.5%) and other chemical products (0.7%).

Among the major economic categories, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-1.2%) presented the sharpest fall in June 2019 and the second negative result in a row, accumulating in this period a fall of 2.8%. The segment of durable consumer goods (-0.6%), capital goods (-0.4%) and intermediate goods (-0.3%) also pointed out negative rates. Durable consumer goods recorded the second month of declines in a row, accumulating a fall of 3.0%; capital goods interrupted four consecutive months of production growth, a period in which they accumulated a rise of 9.9%; intermediate goods edged down part of a profit of 1.4% gain recorded in May, when they interrupted four months in a row of rebound in production, a period in which they accumulated a fall of 4.3%.

Quarterly moving average changes -0.1%

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average recorded changes of -0.1% in the quarter closed at June 2019 and kept the upward trend started in August 2018. Among the major economic categories, intermediate goods (-0.2%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (-0.1%) indicated negative rates. Intermediate goods recorded the fifth consecutive negative result, accumulating in the period a decrease of 3.4%; and semi-durable and non-durable goods retreated again after growing in April (0.8%) and May (0.1%).

On the other hand, the sectors of capital goods (1.1%) and durable goods (0.2%) recorded the advances of June 2019. Capital goods showed the fourth consecutive month of growth, accumulating an expansion of 7.1% in this period; and durable goods kept the downward trend started in January 2019.

Industrial output retreats 5.9% comparing to June 2018

Compared to June 2018, the industry edged down 5.9%, with negative results in the fourth major economic categories, 20 out of 76 sectors, 56 out of 79 groups and 61.2% of 805 surveyed products. June 2019 (19 days) had two less business days than June 2018 (21).

Among the activities, mining and quarry (-16.3%) performed the major negative influence. In addition, it is worth highlighting the following negative contributions: food products (-5.9%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-9.3%), manufacture of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-4.4%), pulp and paper and paper products (-6.1%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-16.0%), toiletries, soaps and cleaning products (-12.5%), beverages (-5.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-5.6%), rubber and plastic materials (-5.4%), other transportation equipment (-11.7%), leather articles and footwear (-6.8%), furniture (-8.6%). On the other hand, among the six activities that had production growth, the major influence was: pharmaceutical products (4.9%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (11.2%), manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (3.2%).

Intermediate goods (-6.4%) and durable goods (-6,1%) posted the sharpest retreats among the major economic categories. The producing sectors of semi-durable and non-durable goods (-5.0%) and capital goods (-3,5%) also registered negative rates, although they were less high than the national average (-5.9%).

The intermediate goods sector rebounded 6.4% after advancing 2.7% in May, when it interrupted eight months of negative rates in a row. The results in June was explained, mainly, for decreases in: mining and quarry industry (-16,3%), manufacture of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-5.0%), food products (-4.6%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-6.7%), non-metallic mineral products (-5.6%), pulp and paper and paper products (-5.8%), machinery and equipment (-9.0%), rubber and plastic materials (-4.3%), metal products (-2.3%), basic metals (-0.2%); meanwhile, the positive pressures were recorded by other chemical products (1.0%) and textile products (0.7%). In addition, it is worth highlighting the negative results of groups of inputs for civil construction (-4.0%), which interrupted two consecutive months of rise in production; and packaging (-3.4%), which indicated the first rebound in 2019. 

The durable goods sector retreated 6.1% after recording positive results in April (1.0%) and May (28.1%). In June 2019, the sector was particularly under pressure by the decrease in vehicle manufacturing (-14.9%). In addition, it is worth highlighting the decline in furniture groups (-8.7%). Moreover, the positive impacts were: brown goods (28.4%), white goods (13.1%) and other household appliances (6.5%).

Semi-durable and non-durable goods retreated 5.0% after growing 11.5% in the previous month, in which it interrupted two consecutive months of declines: March (-5.3%) and April (-0.8%). The performance in June 2019 was explained, to a great extent, by the reduction in food and beverage for domestic consumption (-7.3%). In addition, it is worth highlighting the negative results noticed in semi-durable groups (-4.8%), fuels (-3.4%) and non-durable (-1.8%).

The production of capital goods edged down 3.5% after advancing 22.0% in May, when it interrupted two consecutive months of production declines: March (-11.0%), and April (-0.2%). In June 2019, the segment was mostly influenced by the rebound in the capital goods for transportation equipment (-8.3%). The other negative rates were: agricultural capital goods (-11.9%), electricity (-10.4%), capital goods of mixed use (-5.3%) and for construction (-5.7%). On the other hand, the single positive impact was noticed in capital goods for industrial purpose (1.2%).

Industry rebounds 1.0% in the second quarter of 2019

As a consequence of the rebounding 1.0% in the second quarter of 2019, the industry kept the negative behavior noticed in the last quarter of 2018 (-1.2) and in the first quarter of 2019 (-2.3%), all comparisons against the same period of previous year. The decline of loss intensity from the first to the second quarter of 2019 was explained by an increased pace verified in three of the four major economic categories, with a highlight to durable goods (from -3.2% to 6.9%), and capital goods (from -3.8% to 5.5%). Semi-durable and non-durable goods (from -1.5% to 1.6%) had a similar performance, meanwhile intermediate goods (from -2.0% to -3.2%) was the only one to record losses in dynamism.

In 2019, industry accumulates declines of 1.6%

In the cumulative index for January-June 2018, comparing to the same period in the previous year, the industry rebounded 1.6%, with negative results in one of the four major economic categories, 15 out of the 16 sectors, 39 out of the 79 groups and 52.3% of the 805 products surveyed.

Among the activities, mining and quarry industries (-13.7%) exerted the major negative influence. In addition, it is worth highlighting the negative contributions in the sectors of manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (-6.6%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-10.4%), other transportation equipment (-11.2%), pharmaceutical products (-4.1%) and wood products (-5.3%). On the other hand, among the eleven surveyed activities, the main influence was manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (3.5%). Other relevant positive contributions were from beverages (5.7%), metal products (5.8%), non-metallic mineral products (2.9%), other chemical products (1.5%) and machinery and equipment (1.5%).

Among the major economic categories, the profile of results for the six first months of 2019 had less dynamism for intermediate goods (-2.7%), driven, mainly, by the reduction in mining and quarry (-13.7%). On the other hand, the producing sectors of durable goods (1.8%), capital goods (0.9%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (0.1%) recorded positive rates in the cumulative index in the year.