The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) changed by 0.09% in July, being close to the June rate (0.06%). The IPCA-15 in the year had a cumulative increase of 2.42% and, in 12 months, of 3.27%, a result below the 3.84% registered in the previous twelve months. In July 2018, the rate was 0.64%.

The group Transportation, which rose 0.25% in the previous month, decreased by 0.44% in July, and accounted for the most significant negative impact on the monthly index: -0.08 percentage points (p.p.). In terms of increases, the highlight was Housing, with a change of 0.43% a contribution of 0.07 percentage points. Food and beverages (0.03%) recorded a slight increase, after a result of 0.64% down in June. Other highlights were Personal expenses (0.48%) and Health and personal care (0.34%), with impacts of 0.05 and 0.04 percentage points, respectively. The other groups ranged between a decrease of 0.19% and an increase of 0.14% in Communication, as shown in the table below:

The result of Transportation (-0.44%) was influenced by the fall of fuel prices (-3.00%), mainly gasoline (-2.79%), which was the most significant negative contribution in the month, -0.12 percentage points. Ethanol, which had fallen in June (-4.57%), recored a new decrease (-4.55%) in July, resulting in a contribution of -0.04 percentage points. Dielse (-1.59%) and fuel gas (-0.49%) also decreased, after hikes of 0.86% and 1.93% in June, respectively. 

Also in Transportation, the hike of 0.38% in urban buses results from the readjustment of 9.09% in prices in Belém (6.20%), in effect since June 5. In intercity buses (0.08%) the highlights were price adjustments of 10.00% in Fortaleza (2.23%), in effect since May 25, and of 6.66% in Porto Alegre (014%), starting on June 1st. The item interstate bus (2.56%) reflects the price rise, starting on July 1st, of 3.20% in the coefficient for the calculation of reference tfares for each market.

The biggest individual positive contribution to the monthly index came from one item in Transportaion: airfares (18.10% and 0.07 percentae points of impact on the monthly index), which also rose 18.98% in June.

In Housing (0.43%), the main impact (0.04 percentage points) came from electricity (1.13%), which accelerated against June (0.64%) and rose for the sixth month in a row. After a period, in the previous month, with the green tariff flag, without additonal charges in the electrivity bill, July brings the yellow tariff flag, which charges R$ 1.50 more oer each 100 Kw/h consumed. 

Regional changes range between the decrease of 2.00% in Recife and the hike of 4.74% in Belo Horizonte, where there was and average price adjustment of 7.89% in fares starting on May 28. In São Paulo (2.05%), there was an adjustment of 7.03% in one of the concessionaires, in effect since July 4. There were also adjustments in Curitiba (0.68%) – an average adjustment of 3.41%, in effect since June 24 – and Porto Alegre (0.25%), where two of the three electricity concessionaires were merged, and their charges consequently consolidated, with rises of 3.61% and 6.19%, from June 19 on.

Also in Housing, the result of piped gas (4.01%) reflects the price adjustment of 27.00% in the fares of São Paulo (10.07%), in effect since May 31. The result of water and sewage fares (1.50%) is a consequence of the following price adjustments: Goiânia (2.31%) – with 5.79% starting on July 1st; Porto Alegre (1.51%) – 7.69% in the fares of one of the concessionaires, starting on July 1st; Salvador (4.45%) – 4.70%, in effect since June 12; Brasília (1.94%) – price adjustment of 3.45%, starting on June 1st; Curitiba (8.38%) – price adjustment of 8.38%, since May 24, not part of the previously included indexes. 

In Fortaleza (-2.49%), on July 2, there was reduction from 15.86% to 4.31%, of the price adjustment granted in February. However, on July 9, that reduction was cancelled and the adjustment of 15.86% went into effect again.

The group Food and beverages (0.03%) had a slight increase, after a decrease of 0.64% in the previous month. Potato (8.30%) and onion (12.81%) rose in July, and accounted for 0.02 percentae points each in the IPCA-15 of July. In terms of decreases, the highlight ,once more, was pinto beans (-12.47%), whose prices fell for the fourth month in a row. Fruits (-1.22%) and long life milk (-0.96%) also faced deflayion in July, after a hike of 2.80% in June.

In Health and personal care (0.34%), there was deceleration in relation to the previous month (0.58%), mainly due to the items of hpersonal ygiene, which changed from 1.10% in June to 0.14% in July. The main individual impact in the group was that of health insuramnce (0.80%), with 0.03 percentage points.

The group Personal expenses (0.48%), on the other hand, accelerated in relation to June (0.11%). As a contribution to that result there were: hikes in the prices of some services, such as chairdresser's (0.82%), domestic workers (0.24%) and manicure services (0.25%), and also the results of excursions (4.47%), which had recorded a decrease of 1.08% in the IPCA-15 of June.

Two areas recorded deflation in July (table below). The lowest index was recorded by the municipality of Goiânia (-0.19%), due to the fall of gasoline (-3.35%). The lowest result was that of the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (0.26%), due to the hike of airfares (22.93%).

In order to measure the IPCA-15 of the month the prices collected from June 13 to July 12, 2019 (reference) were compared with the ones in effect from May 16 14 to jUne 12, 2019(base). The indicator refers to families with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, and also Brasília and Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.