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In May, output of industry fell in 8 of the 15 areas surveyed

July 12, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 12, 2019 12h43 PM

In the seasonally-adjusted series, 8 of the 15 areas surveyed recorded negative rates, following the decrease (-0.2%) of national industry. The main decreases were registered in Espírito Santo (-2.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.4%), Santa Catarina (-1.3%) and Minas Gerais (-1,0%), followed by the Northeast Region (-0.9%), Ceará (-0.9%), Mato Grosso (-0.7%) and Pernambuco (-0.6%). Pará had the biggest hike in the time series (59.1%) withe the restart of the mining and quarrying sector. The other positive rates were those of Rio de Janeiro (8.8%), Goiás (1.6%), Amazonas (1.2%), Bahia (1.1%), Paraná (0.7%) and São Paulo (0.1%). The support material for the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) is on the right of the page.

Short-term Indicators of Industry - Regional Results - May 2019
Areas Change (%)
May 2019/ April 2019* May 2019/ May 2018 Cumulative in the year Cumulative in the last 12 months
Amazonas 1.2 3,0 -1.8 -2.8
Pará 59.1 -0,7 -6.2 4.4
Northeast Region -0.9 6,6 -1.4 0.3
Ceará -0.9 11,4 3.6 1.5
Pernambuco -0.6 13,6 1.5 3.9
Bahia 1.1 12,3 0.1 1.4
Minas Gerais -1.0 -2,4 -4.3 -2.1
Espírito Santo -2.2 -17.4 -11.8 -4.1
Rio de Janeiro 8.8 5.1 -1.5 -0.1
São Paulo 0.1 11.7 0.5 -0.9
Paraná 0.7 27.8 10.4 6.3
Santa Catarina -1.3 19.3 6.1 5.0
Rio Grande do Sul -1.4 19.9 8.8 9.2
Mato Grosso -0,7 5,7 -2,7 -0,9
Goiás 1,6 13,9 3,2 -2,5
Brazil -0,2 7.1 -0,7 0,0
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria * Série com Ajuste Sazonal

With the decrease of 0.2% of the national output of industry between April and May 2019, in the seasonally adjusted series, eight of the fifteen areas surveyed recorded negative rates. The most significant decreases were registered in Espírito Santo (-2.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.4%), Santa Catarina (-1.3%) and Minas Gerais (-1.0%), with the first place recording the second negative rate and a cumulative decrease of 6.7% in the period; the second one made up for part of the increase of 3.2% registered in MArch and April 2019; the third place interrupted a series of four months in a row, a period when it recorded a cumulative expansion of 4.9%; the last one decreased again after a slight increase of 0.1% in April 2019. The Northeast Region (-0.9%), Ceará (-0.9%), Mato Grosso (-0.7%) and Pernambuco (-0.6%) completed the group of areas with negative indexes in May 2019.

Pará recorded an unusual increase of 59.1%, the most significant increase in the month and in the time series of the survey, due to the restart of production in an important production plant in the mining and quarrying sector. That expansion reversed three consecutive months of decrease, with a cumulative decrease of 38.7% in the period. The other positive rates came from Rio de Janeiro (8.8%), Goiás (1.6%), Amazonas (1.2%), Bahia (1.1%), Paraná (0.7%) and São Paulo (0.1%).

Also in the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average of industry recorded decrease (-0.4%) in the quarter ended May, against the previous month and remained on a downward trend as initiated in August 2018. That indicator was negative in seven of the fifteen areas surveyed and the most significant decreases were those in Mato Grosso (-1.6%), Espírito Santo (-1.3%), Northeat Region (-1.3%), Minas Gerais (-1.0%), Bahia (-0.8%) and Pará (-0,7%). The main increases were in Rio de Janeiro (1.9%), Paraná (0.9%), Goiás (0.6%), Pernambuco (0.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.6%).

Against May 2018, the increase of industry, 7.1% in the country, was observed in 12 of the 15 areas surveyed. Two factors influenced that increase: the calendar-effect (May 2019 had one business day less than the same month a year ago) and the low basis for comparison, since in May 2018, industrial activity had fallen by 6,3%, reflecting the effects of the truck driver's strike. 

Paraná (27.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (19.9%) and Santa Catarina (19.3%) recorded the biggest increases in this comparison. However, Goiás (13.9%), Pernambuco (13.6%), Bahia (12.3%), São Paulo (11.7%) and Ceará (11.4%) also registered positive rates above the national average (7.1%), whereas the Northeast Region (6.6%), Mato Grosso (5.7%), Rio de Janeiro (5.1%) and Amazonas (3.0%) completed the group of areas with increasing results. 

The most significant decrease was that of Espírito Santo (-17.4%), due to the negative performance of mining and quarrying industry (iron ore pellets or sintered iron ore, crude petroleum oil and natural gas). The other negative rates came from Minas Gerais (-2.4%) and Pará (-0.7%).

Considering the cumulative index in the year, against the same period in 2018, the decrease of national output affected seven of the 15 areas surveyed, the main highlights being Espírito Santo (-11.8%), Pará (-6.2%) and Minas Gerais (-4.3%), mainly due to the decreses observed in pulp, paper and paper products (cellulose), in the first location; mining and quarrying industry (raw or processed iron ore), in the second; eand mining and quarrying industry (raw or processed iron ore), in the third one. Mato Grosso (-2.7%), Amazonas (-1.8%), Rio de Janeiro (-1.5%) and Northeat Region (-1,4%) completed the group of areas with cumulative decrease in the year. 

The main increases came from Paraná (10.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (8.8%) and Santa Catarina (6.1%). The other positive rates came from Ceará (3.6%), Goiás (3.2%), Pernambuco (1.5%), São Paulo (0.5%) and Bahia (0.1%).

Monthly Survey of Industry - Results by Area
(Base: Same month a year ago)
Areas Percent change (%)
1st Semester/2018 2nd Semester/2018 Jan-May/2019
Amazonas 14.7 -4.4 -1.8
Pará 8.0 11.0 -6.2
Northeast Region -0.2 0.7 -1.4
Ceará -0.1 0.8 3.6
Pernambuco 3.5 4.8 1.5
Bahia 0.4 1.2 0.1
Minas Gerais -2.4 -0.8 -4.3
Espírito Santo -6.0 2.7 -11.8
Rio de Janeiro 4.0 0.4 -1.5
São Paulo 4.5 -2.5 0.5
Paraná 0.2 2.7 10.4
Santa Catarina 3.9 4.3 6.1
Rio Grande do Sul 0.6 10.8 8.8
Mato Grosso -0.6 0.3 -2.7
Goiás -3.3 -5.7 3.2
Brazil 2.2 0.0 -0.7
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

In the analysis by semester, against the same month a year ago, the decrease of 0.7% in the period January-May 2019 pointed to reduced dynamism of industry against the last semester of 2018 (0.0%) and consolidated the deceleration started in the second semester of 2017 (4.0%). Nine of the fifteen areas surveyed also recorded loss of dynamism, the main highlight being Pará, with a change from 11.0% in the second semester to -6.2% in the cumulative index in the year of the first five months of 2019, Espírito Santo (from 2.7% to -11.8%), Minas Gerais (from -0.8% to -4.3%), Pernambuco (from 4.8% to 1.5%) and Mato Grosso (from 0.3% to -2.7%). On the other hand, Goiás (from -5.7% to 3.2%) and Paraná (from 2.7% to 10.4%) accounted for the most significant decreases between the two periods.

The cumulative index in the last twelve months changed from -1.1% in April to 0.0% in May 2019 and interrupted the downward trend observed since July 2018 (3.3%). Eight of the fifteen areas surveyed recored positive rates, but twelve had more dynamism in relation to April. The main increases were recorded by Paraná (from 3.1% to 6.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 6.5% to 9.2%), Goiás (from -4.9% to -2.5%), Santa Catarina (from 2.8% to 5.0%), Bahia (from -0.8% to 1.4%), Mato Grosso (from -2.6% to -0.9%) and Ceará (from -0.1% to 1.5%). Deceleration in the period was registered in Espírito Santo (from -3.2% to -4.1%), Pará (from 5.0% to 4.4%) and Amazonas (from -2.7% to -2.8%).

Monthly Survey of Industry - Results by Area
Cumulative iNdex in the Last Twelve Months 
(Base: Previous 12 months)
Areas Percent change (%)
April/2019 May/2019
Amazonas -2.7 -2.8
Pará 5.0 4.4
Northeast Region -1.0 0.3
Ceará -0.1 1.5
Pernambuco 2.8 3.9
Bahia -0.8 1.4
Minas Gerais -2.6 -2.1
Espírito Santo -3.2 -4.1
Rio de Janeiro -0.4 -0.1
São Paulo -2.3 -0.9
Paraná 3.1 6.3
Santa Catarina 2.8 5.0
Rio Grande do Sul 6.5 9.2
Mato Grosso -2.6 -0.9
Goiás -4.9 -2.5
Brazil -1.1 0.0
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria