In February, IBGE estimates rise of 1.0% in grain harvest in 2019

March 12, 2019 09h00 AM | Last Updated: March 14, 2019 05h15 PM

The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2019 was estimated at 228.8 million tonnes in February, 1.0% higher than in 2018 (more 2.3 million tonnes) and 0.8% lower than in January (less 1.9 million tonnes). The area to be harvested was estimated at 61.9 million hectares, an increase of 1.7% over 2018 (more 1.0 million hectares) and a drop of 0.3% over January (less 187.7 thousand hectares).

February estimate for 2019 228.8 million tonnes
2019 harvest / 2018 harvest change 1.0% (2.3 million tonnes)
2019 harvest / 1st estimate 2019 change -0.8% (-1.9 million tonnes)

Rice, corn and soybeans represented 93.3% of the estimated output and accounted for 87.3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2018, the area for corn increased 3.3%, the area for soybeans, 1.7% and the area for rice fell 9.4%. On the production side, soybeans dropped 3.8%, rice, 10.9% and corn increased 9.8%. Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led the national output of grains with a share of 26.2%, followed by Paraná (16.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (14.6%), Goiás (9.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.2%) and Minas Gerais (5.9%). Altogether, these states accounted for 80.5% of the national output. The support material of the LSPA is on this page.

The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was distributed like this: Central-West (101.6 million tonnes), South (76.4 million tonnes), Southeast (23.1 million tonnes), Northeast (18.8 million tonnes) and North (8.9 million tonnes). The Central-West (0.6%), South (2.6%) and Southeast Region (0.8%) increased in relation to 2018, the North Region remained stable (0.0%) and the Northeast dropped (-1.9%).

Highlights in February 2019 estimate in relation to January

The changes in these estimates of production stood out in February over January: beans - 2nd crop (4.5%), upland cotton (3.7%), grapes (3.5%), corn - 2nd crop (0.3%), beans - 3rd crop (0.2%), corn - 1st crop (-1.0%), soybeans (-1.2%), beans - 1st crop (-3.3%) and rice (-6.2%).

Concerning the absolute change, the positive highlights were corn - 2nd crop (202.522 t), upland cotton (199,760 t), beans - 2nd crop (50,377 t), grapes (47,861 t) and beans - 3rd crop (1,110 t). The negative highlights were soybeans (-1,328,038 t), rice (-696,033 t), corn - 1st crop (-269,465 t) and beans - 1st crop (-3,313 t).

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The production estimate was of 5.6 million tonnes, an increase of 3.7% over January and a record in the IBGE´s time series. Bahia reported a growth of 18.6% in the production. The crops suffered from the lack of rainfall, yet the rainy season in February caused a recovery in the productivity. The estimated production in this state reached 1.3 million tonnes, corresponding to 22.7% of the crop to be harvested in Brazil this year.

In Mato Grosso, the output was estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, representing 67.2% of all the cotton to be harvested in Brazil in 2019. The estimated production of cotton was 13.0% above that in the previous year, due to the increase of 22.1% in the area to be planted. In Maranhão and Piauí, the estimates in the output were 25.2% and 106.1%, respectively, bigger, and should reach 114.8 and 51.4 thousand tonnes.

PADDY RICE - The production estimate fell 6.2% in relation to the previous month, corresponding to a reduction of 696.0 thousand tonnes. The planted area dropped 2.1%, the area to be harvested, 3.0%, and the average yield, 3.3%. The output should reach 10.5 million tonnes. The production estimate shrank 8.2% over January in the largest Brazilian producer, Rio Grande do Sul (69.8% of the national total). Due to the less compensating prices in the last years, Rio Grande do Sul has been reducing the planted area of irrigated rice in favor of the increase in the soybean cropping. The rotation of these crops improves the soil and favors the average yield of both of them.

BEANS (IN GRAIN) - Considering the three crops of this product, the production estimate was of 2.9 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.3% over January. The total output should be 1.2% bigger than the 2018 harvest. The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, a reduction of 3.3% over the previous month, which represented less 43,313 tonnes. The negative highlights were Paraná and Goiás.

The output in Paraná was estimated at 248.3 thousand tonnes, a reduction of 4.6% (12,053 tonnes), due to the hot weather and irregularity of rainfall. The production in Goiás was reduced by 10.1% and should reach 96.9 thousand tonnes, as well as the harvested area (-2.2%) and average yield (-8.1%). For the first crop, the annual comparison pointed out to a reduction of 16.9% in the output. Important producer states reduced their production estimates, among them: Bahia (-32.2%), Minas Gerais (-8.8%), São Paulo (-33.3%), Paraná (-19.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (-9.8%) and Goiás (-27.9%).

The second crop of beans was estimated with a rise of 4.5% (50,377 tonnes) against the last estimate. As the main responsible for this growth, Paraná increased 17.7% (60,198 tonnes). The production estimate for the second crop was 17.3% higher than in 2018. Having risen 101.0%, the Northeast Region influenced this result, due to the increases in the production estimates in Pernambuco (44.3%), Alagoas (154.2%), Sergipe (339.6%), Paraíba (38.5%), Ceará (35.2%) and Bahia (248.3%). Having estimated rises of 45.4% in the output and of 39.5% in the average yield, Paraná also contributed to this result, which was under the average in 2018 due to the lack of rainfall.

For the third crop of beans, the forecast was a rise of 0.2% in the output in relation to January. The third crop should increase 10.1% over the previous year. As the biggest influences in the estimate, Minas Gerais and Goiás were expected to grow 3.5% and 11.1%, respectively.

CORN GRAIN - In relation to the last information, the output decreased only 66.9 thousand tonnes (0.1%), adding up to 89.4 million tonnes. The output estimate was 9.8% smaller in relation to 2018. For the first crop, the production estimate reached 26.1 million tonnes (-1.0% in relation to the last information). The production estimate declined 17.2% (or less 306.0 thousand tonnes) in Goiás (1.5 million tonnes) and in Maranhão, which estimated a harvest 9.3% smaller, adding up to 901.4 thousand tonnes.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the production estimate rose 2.6%, adding up to 5.5 million tonnes. The output estimate was 1.4% smaller in relation to the previous year. The biggest growth in the output in 2019 was expected in Paraná (7.2%), Santa Catarina (9.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (20.7%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (11.1%).

Due to the early planting of soybeans, it was expected a larger period for the "planting window" for corn - 2nd crop. The production estimate (63.3 million tonnes) represented an increase of 0.3% over the last estimate and of 13.7% in relation to 2018. The biggest increases in the production over January were expected in Paraná (0.6%) and Goiás (1.4%). In Paraná, the second biggest producer (20.2% of the national total), a growth of 78.7 thousand tonnes was expected in the output. For Goiás, an increase of 115.7 thousand tonnes was estimated in the production and it should reach 8.4 million tonnes.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - in February, the production estimate (113.4 million tonnes) fell 1.2% over January. The biggest reductions were in Maranhão (-2.8%), Paraná 
(-3.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (-0.9%) and Goiás (-2.3%). The retreat in the production of soybeans was due to climate problems in some important producer states. The early planted soybean crops suffered more, since the drought occurred during the flourishing and grain filling. Crops planted later have supported better the dry period. The harvest was underway and the losses will be known only in the end of it. Despite the increase of 1.7% in the planted area, the production estimate of soybeans was 3.8% smaller than in 2018, due to the decline of 5.4% in the average yield. The climate problems in the current harvest were more intense than in 2018.

GRAPES - The estimate of the Brazilian production hit 1.4 million tonnes, a growth of 3.5% over January. In February, Pernambuco reassessed its estimates and reported an increase of 19.4% in the output. It should reach 421.5 thousand tonnes (30.1% of the national production). The average yield (50,974 kg/ha) was the highest in Brazil. The production of grapes in Pernambuco is concentrated in irrigated perimeters of the São Francisco River Valley. The dry weather and abundance of water for irrigation, coupled with a high production technology, including the use of highly productive varieties and well accepted in the foreign market, allow to harvest it three times in the year, which positively impacts in the productivity.

In February, the production in Rio Grande do Sul was reassessed with a drop of 3.2% and it should reach 624.5 thousand tonnes. Rio Grande do Sul was the largest producer of this fruit (44.6% of the national production). The Brazilian output of grapes fell 12.1% in relation to 2018, being influenced by the reduction of 10.8% in the average yield. In Rio Grande do Sul, the output was 24.1% smaller and the average yield declined 21.3% in relation to 2018, when the production reached 822.7 thousand tonnes, 51.7% of the production in Brazil.