In January, the output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2019 was estimated at 230.7 million metric tons, 1.9% above the 2018 harvest (more 4.2 million metric tons) and 1.2% below the amount of the 3rd estimate (minus 2.7 million metric tons). The area to be harvested is 62.1 million hectares, 2.0% more than in 2018 (more 1.2 million hectares) and 0.1% below the 3rd estimate (minus 62.7 thousand hectares). 

Rice, corn and soybeans represented 93.3% of the estimated output and 87.4% of the area to be harvested.  In relation to 2018, the area for corn increased 3.6%, the area for soybeans, 2.0% and the area for rice recorded a decrease of 6.6%.  Concerning output, soybeans and rice fell by 2.6% and 5.0%, respectively, whereas corn had an increase of 9.9%.  Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso was the leader as the main national producer of grains, with a share of 26.0%, followed by Paraná (16.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.8%). These three states together accounted for 56.8% of the overall estimate. The LSPA support material is on the right side of this page. 

The output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recordd the following regional distribution: Central West (101.0 million metric tons); South (77.5 milllion metric tons), Southeast (23.1 million metric tons); Northeast (18.9 million metric tons) and North (9.3 million metric tons). In relation to 2018, there were increases of 1.2% in the Central West Region, of 4.0% in the South Region, of 0.8% in the Southeast Region, of 3.8% in the North Region, and of 1.6% in the Northeast Region.

Highlights in the January 2019 estimates over December

In January, the highlights were changes in the following output estimates against December: grape (7.7%), beans - 3rd crop (7.3%), beans - 2nd crop (5.7%), sorghum (4%), upland cotton (2.2%), corn - 2nd crop (2.0%), potato - 2nd crop (1.5%, corn - 1st crop (-3.1%), soybeans (-3.4%), beans - 1st crop (-3.7%), tomato (-4.7%) and potato - 1st crop (-6.9%). 

In relation to the absolute change, the highlights were: corn - 2nd crop (1.2 million metric tons), upland cotton (113.4 thousand metric tons), grape (97.2 thousand metric tons), sorghum (90.6 thousand metric tons), beans - 2nd crop (61.1 thousand metric tons), beans - 3rd crop (34.2 thousand metric tons) and potato - 2nd crop (17.7 thousand metric tons).  The negative results were those of: soybeans (minus 4.0 million metric tons), cassava (637.1 thousand metric tons), potato - 1st crop (123.6 thousand metric tons), tomato (212.1 thousand metric tns), beans - 1sr crop (49.4 thousand metric tons) and corn - 1st crop (27.1 thousand metric tons).

UPLAND COTTONSEED – The output estimate for cotton was 5.4 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.2% in relation to December, a record in the time series.  Profitable prices for 2019 and positive results of crops, in 2018, in Bahia and in Mato Grosso, as a result of the rainy weather, were factors accounting for the increase of investments in cotton crops.  In Mato Grosso, the estimated production was 3.7 million metric tons, with an increase of 3.4% in relation to the previous month.  The estimate for the national output is 121.9 thousand metric tons above the previous estimate.  In the 2019 harvest, Mato Grosso is expected to account for 69.7% of the overall output in the country.  The harvest output of Bahia was estimated at 1.1 million metric tons, that is, 19.8% of the national amount.  In January, Bahia kept the same estimates as in the previous month.  Against the previous year, the output estimate for cotton was 8.9% bigger, due to the increase of 18.5% increase of the area to be planted.  Average yield, 3,945 kg/ha, recorded a decrease of 8.1%, as a result of the uncertainties concerning climate in the main producing states.

POTATO - In relation to the previous year, the Brazilian output of potato fell by 7.0%. The 1st crop is estimated at 1.7 million metric tons, and that means an increase against 2018.  Minas Gerais, which accounted for 25.2% of the output in 2018 in the 1st crop, had an estimated increase of 6.4% in output, with 26.1% of the national output.  Paraná reduced its planted area by 12.2% and estimated a decrease of 11.7% in output.  For the second and third crops, the estimated production reached 1.1 million and 721.4 thousand metric tons, respectively, with a decrease of 0.2% and 29.8% against the previous year.  For the 3rd crop, there was a decrease of output estimates in all the producing states. 

BEAN SEED - Compared with December, the estimate for the area planted with beans fell by 2.2%, whereas the output estimate increased 1.6%. The output of beans - 1st crop was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, with a decrease of 3.7% against the estimate of the previous month, a total 49 467 metric tons.  The negative result came from Paraná, with a 12.4% decrease in its output estimate (36.9 thousand metric tons), as a result of the decrease of 11.2% in the average yield, and crops damaged by the strong heat and the irregular rainfall. Minas Gerais reduced its output estimate by 35.8 thousand metric tons, which represents a total 18.1% of the amount estimated for the previous month, with a decrease of 11.4% in planted area. Prices not so rewarding during the planting season influenced the producers to reduce investments in bean crops. 

Beans - 2nd crop had an estimated increase of 5.7% (61.1 thousand metric tons), against the latest estimate, following the expected increase of average yield, which was 9.8%.  Paraná, the main responsible for that increase of estimate, recorded and increase of 17.7% (more than 51.2 thousand metric tons).  Minas Gerais estimated an increase of 5.6% in output (8.2 thousand metric tons).  The output estimate for beans -2nd crop was 12.3% above that of 2018.  The Northeast Region had an influence on that result, due to increases in the output estimates of Pernambuco (57.2%), Alagoas (154.2%), Sergipe (339.6%) and Bahia (248.3%).  Paraná also contributed to that result, with an estimated output increase of 23.5% and an increase of 39.7% in average yield, which had been way below average in 2018 due to the lack of rain. 

In relation to beans-3rd crop, the estimate of a 7.3% increase in relation to the December estimate (34.2 thousand metric tons). Minas Gerais is the state with the biggest influence on this result, since the estimates point to an increase of 10.4% in planted area and output (16.1 thousand metric tons).  Goiás estimated an increase of 5.7% in the output estimate, of 3.2% in planted area and of 2.4% in average yield.  The estimate for beans -3rd crop was 9.9% above that of 2018.  The main Federation Units accounting for that increase were: Minas Gerais (3.5%), São Paulo (24.2%), Paraná (46.9%) and Goiás (10.6%). 

CASSAVA (root) - The estimated output of cassava was 20.2 million metric tons, an increase of 4.2% against 2018.  In the North Region, which accounts for 3.6% of the national output this year, there was increase of estimates in: Rondônia (3.2%), Acre (54.8%), Amazonas (58.1%), Pará (2.7%) and Amapá (5.3%), with an increase of 902.5 thousand metric tons. In the Northeast Region, which is responsible for 23.6% of the national total, there is an estimated decrease of 6.2%, with negative figures in Maranhão (-46.9%), Ceará (-22.9%), Pernambuco (-1.4%), Rio Grande do Norte (-1.7%) and Alagoas (-7.2%). Increase of output is expected for: Piauí (15.9%), Paraíba (2.3%), Sergipe (35.2%) and Bahia (21.6%). Other important states in terms of output, Paraná (18.7% of the national overall) and São Paulo (5.4%) also informed bigger output estimates for 2019, 8.6% and 0.9%, respectively, whereas Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul recorded decreases of 4.9% and 1.2%, respectively, against 2018.  Non-profitable prices and a reduced demand in 2018 discouraged investments in crops. 

CORN (grain) - Output increased by 1.2 million metric tons, or 1.4%, against the previous figure, resulting in a total 89.4 million metric tons.  Against 2018, the estimate is 9.9% higher, with an increase of 2.3% in planted area, 3.6% in the area to be harvested and  6.0% in the average yield.  The output estimate for corn - 1st crop reached 26.4 million metric tons. There was almost no change against the last report.  The output estimate was 2.5% bigger in relation to 2018. The more profitable prices of soybeans during the planting season led producers to expand the areas for that legume in place of corn. The increase of average yield results from more positive estimates concerning climate, against 2018, when crops in some states of the South and Central West faced the effects of the lack of rain in the end of the cycle. The biggest increases in output are expected from Paraná (7.4%), Santa Catarina (9.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (17.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (11.1%) and Goiás (8.1%).

As a result of the early planting of soybeans, a longer planting window is expected for corn 2nd crop.  That may represent a smaller risk for the development of crops in the field, once there are smaller chances of occurrence of dry period, and that will probably have a positive impact on average yield, estimated at 8.4% and possible reaching 5,252 kg/ha. The output estimate is now 63.1 million metric tons, with an increase of 2.0% in relation to the last estimate and increase of 13.4% against the previous year.  The biggest increases of output against the previous year were estimated for Paraná (14.7%), Goiás (1.0%) and Federal District (5.4%).  Only in Paraná, the second main producer, which accounts for 20.1% of the national output of this crop, there is an estimated output increase of 1.6 million metric tons.  For Mato Grosso, the main producer and responsible for 39.8% of the total national output of that crop, there is an estimated decrease of 1.3% in output for 2019.  As the prices of corn are at higher levels in comparison with those in the previous year, producers are expected to increase investments in technology, leading to higher productivity.

SOYBEAN (grain) - In the month, the output estimate fell by 3.4% in relation to December. The expected output is 114.7 million metric tons.  Average yield and the area to be harvested fell by 3.4% and 0.1%, respectively.  The biggest decreases in output were recorded by Maranhão (9.2%), Paraná (11.8%), Mato Grosso do Sul (9.7%), Mato Grosso (-1.1%), Goiás (2.2%) and Federal District (10.2%), as a result of the lack of rain in some producing areas of those Federation Units.  In general, previously planted soybean crops were mostly affected, with drought having occurred in the most sensitive periods of crops, such as flowering and grain filling.  The crops planted at a later time seem to have been stronger against the dry season.  However, with the end of harvesting, it is possible to know the extension of the productivity of soybeans as a result of climate problems.  Against 2018, despite the increase of 1.8% in planted area, against the previous year, the output estimate for soybeans is 2.6% smaller, as a result of the decrease of average yield by 4.6%.  The current climate problems seem to be more severe now than in 2018.

SORGHUM (grain) - The estimated production reached 2.3 million metric tons, an increase of 3.7% in relation to the previous month. As the second main producer of this cereal with a share of 30.3% of the overall production, Minas Gerais had its estimate increased by 16.1%, as a result of the 5.1% increase in planted area and of 10.4% in the average yield.  In the driest areas of the state, sorghum overcomes corn as the best crop, given its bigger resistance in the field and higher tolerance to dry weather.  Against 2018, sorghum output is expected to increase 3.0%, mainly due to the increase of average yield (2.9%).  Sorghum is harvested as 2nd crop in the Central West Region, which accounts for 49.9% of the national output, usually after the planting window of corn 2nd crop. The expansion of planted area depends on the expectations in relation to the climate, for it is chosen as an alternative crop to corn, since the latter is more susceptible to the effects of the dry season.  

TOMATO - The Brazilian output is expected to reach 4.3 million metric tons, with an increase of 6.1% against 2018.  The estimates for planted area and area to be harvested, of 62.5 thousand hectares, records an increase of 2.9%, whereas the average yield increased by 3.1%. In Goiás, the main producer in the country and a state which accounted for 36.6% of the total production, the estimated output is 1.6 million metric tons, meaning an increase of 19.0% against the 2018 figure.  Planted area and the area to be harvested grew 16.5%, whereas the average yield increased by 2.1%. The state of São Paulo is another relevant producer, with an estimate of 858 thousand metric tons (19.8% of the national output).

GRAPE - The estimate of the Brazilian production of grape reached 1.3 million metric tons, a decrease of 15.1% against the previous year. Planted and harvested areas were revised, having recorded decreases of 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, whereas the average yield fell by 13.4%.  In January, Bahia (74,1 thousand metric tons) e Pernambuco (353 thousand metric tons) revised their output and recorded decreases of 1.6% and 16.6%, respectively.

Pernambuco and Bahia are expected to account for 427.1 thousand metric tons, that is, for 31.6% of the national output.  The production of grape in the Northeast Region is concentrated in irrigated areas around the São Francisco River Valley, located between the tow aforementioned states, in the municipalities of Petrolina/PE, Casa Nova/PE, Juazeiro/BA, Santa Maria da Boa Vista/PE, Curaçá/BA and Irecê/BA. The dry climate and the abundance of water for irrigation, together with the modern production technology, including the use of highly productive items widely accepted in the foreign market, makes it possible to harvest grapes up to three times a year, a positive sign in terms of yield.