In December 2018, the national output of industry increased 0.2% against the previous month (seasonally adjusted series) and reversed the negative change of 0.1% recorded in November. Against December 2017 (series without adjustment), industry fell by 3.6%, after recording a decrease in November 2018 (-1.0%). With these results, industry fell 1.1% in the end of Q4 2018, but recorded a positive change of 0.1% in the cumulative result for the second semester of the year. 

In the cumulative index in the year (1.1%), industry grew, but at a pace below that of 2017 (2.5%), after three consecutive years with negative rates: 2014 (-3.0%), 2015 (-8.3%) and 2016 (-6.4%). Considering the cumulative index in 12 months (1.1%), industry remained decelerating against the results of July (3.3%), August (3.1%), September (2.7%), October (2.3%) and November (1.8%). The complete publication of the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM Brazil) is available on the right of the page.  

11 of the 26 subsectors surveyed recorded increases

In the increase (0.2%) of industrial output from November to December 2018, two of the four major economic categories and 11 of the 26 subsectors surveyed recorded increase of output. Among the activities, the most significant positive contribution was that of food products (1.5%), with a cumulative increase of 7.5% in two consecutive months of increase of output, eliminating part of the 10.4% decrease observed in the period July-October 2018.

Other highlights were the positive results of mining and quarrying industry (1.3%), beverages (2.9%), miscellaneous products (6.9%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (0.6%). Except for the last activity, which recorded the second positive result in this type of comparison and recorded a cumulative increase of 1.0%in the period, the others had a negative performance in the previous month: -0.7%, -2.2% and -13.5%, respectively.

Among the fifteen subsectors recording decrease, the most relevant performance was that of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-3.1%), with decrease of output for the second month in a row and a cumulative decrease of 7.6% in the period. Other negative impacts were those of: machinery and equipment (-2.5%), other chemicals (-1.3%), basic metals (-1.3%), maintenance, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (-6.2%), pulp, paper and paper products (-1.8%), rubber products and plastic material (-1.6%), tobacco products (-11.6%) and furniture (-4.7%).

Among the main economic categories, also against November, intermediate goods (0.7%) recorded the most significant increase, repeating the result of the previous month, when it interrupted a series of three consecutive months with decrease of output and a cumulative decrease of 4.0%. The segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.2%) also recorded a positive rate in the month and interrupted a series of negative results observed since July, a period marked by a 3.9% increase. On the other hand, the sectors of capital goods (-5.7%) and durable consumer goods (-2.1%) recorded a decrease in December, for the second month in a row and recording cumulative decreases of  9.9% and 5.8%, respectively.

Quarterly moving average had a positive increase of 0.2%

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the quarterly moving average index increased 0.2% in the quarter ended December against previous month, after recording negative results in the months of September (-1.0%), October (-0.8%) and November (-0.6%).

Among the major economic categories, intermediate goods (0.3%) recorded the only increase, and interrupted the downward trend initiated in August 2018. Capital goods (-2.9%) registered the biggest negative result, a more significant decrease against the previous month (-1.7%). Durable consumer goods (-1.1%) and semi and non-durable goods (-0.3%) also recorded negative rates, with decreases for the fourth month in a row and cumulative decreases of 7.2% and 2.8%, in the period, respectively.

Industry fell 3.6% against December 2017

In comparison with the same month a year ago, industry fell by 3.6% in December 2018, with negative results in the four main economic categories, 21 of the 26 subsectors, 56 of the 79 groups and 62.5% of the 805 products surveyed. December 2018 had the same number of business days as the previous year (20 days).

Among the activities, food products (-7.8%) and motor vehicles trailers and bodies (-12.0%) accounted for the most significant negative results. Other relevant negative contributions were those of: rubber products and plastic material (-10.5%), other chemicals (-6.2%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-19.0%), machinery and equipment (-6.2%), basic metals (-4.2%), other transportation equipment (-18,5%), maintenance, repair and installation of material and equipment (-12.4%), textiles (-11.1%), pulp, paper and paper products (-3.0%), electrical machinery and apparatuses  (-5.7%) and furniture (-9.5%).

Among the five sectors that recorded an increase of output, the main impacts were those of mining and quarrying industry (6.5%) pharmaceuticals (25.1%).

Among the main economic categories, the most significant decrease was that of Durable consumer goods (-14.3%), which recorded the second negative rate in this kind of comparison since July 2016 (-16.1%). The sector was mainly affected by the reduced manufacture of cars (-16.9%) and “brown goods” (-23.0%). It is also Worth mentioning the decreases in “White goods” (-2.7%), furniture (-12.4%), motorcycles (-4.2%) and other household appliances (-2.4%).

Capital goods (-5.6%) also recorded a decrease below the national average (-3.6%), and interrupted a series of six months with positive results in a row and accounting for the major decrease since May 2018 (-6.4%). In the month, the segmant was influenced, to a great extent, by the decreases in the groups of capital goods for industrial use (-12.1%) and for transportation equipment (-5.9%). The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for mixed use (-12.3%) and construction (8.1%). Positive impacts came from capital goods for agriculture (20.2%) and for electricity (0.5%).

Semi and non-durable goods (-2.5%) accounted for the fifth negative rate in a row, and the most significant one in that sequence. The performance of this month resulted mainly from the decrease in elaborated food and beverages for domestic consumption (-4.8%). It is also worth mentinoning the negative results of semi-durable goods (-4.3%) and fuels (-5.1%).

The segment of intermediate goods (-2.3%) kept the negative behavior of the last four months: September (-2.8%), October (-0.6%) and November (-1.4%). The month's result was seen, mainly, as a consequence of decreases in food products (-11.1%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-15.2%), rubber products and plastic material (-10.6%), other chemicals (-6.1%), basic metals (-4.2%), machinery and equipment (-9.2%), textiles (-8.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (-3.6%) and metal products (-2.2%). Positive contributions came from mining and quarrying industry (6.5%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.8%) and non-metalic mineral products (0.9%).

It is also worth mentioning the negative results of typical inputs for civil construction (-3.3%), with a more significant decrease than in the previous year (-1.1%); and packages (-2.5%), which interrupted six months with positive rates and represented the most significant decrease since May 2018 (-11.0%).

In Q4 2018, Industry fell 1.1%

The industrial sector, having decreased 1.1% in Q4 2018, interrupted the positive behavior observed since Q1 2017 (1.4%) and kept in deceleration against the results of Q1 2018 (2.8%), Q2 2018 (1.8%) and Q3 2018 (1.2%). The deceleration of industrial output was also observed in the four main economic categories, a main highlight being durable consumer goods, with a decrease from 7.1% in Q3 2018 to -3.1% in Q4 2018, mainly due to the reduced production of cars (from 14.7% to -1.2%). Capital goods (from 7.3% to 3.4%), intermediate goods (from 0.7% to -1.4%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (from -0.4% to -1.0%) also accounted for these results. 

Industry has cumulative increase of 1.1% in 2018

In the cumulative index of 2018, against that of the previous year, industry grew 1.1%, with positive results in three of the four main economic categories, 13 of the 26 subsectors, 42 of the 79 groups and 50.9% of the 805 products surveyed. 

Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (12.6%) accounted for the main positive influence. Other positive contributions came from basic metals (4.0%), pulp, paper and paper products (4.9%), mining and quarrying industry (1.3%), machinery and equipment (3.4%), pharmaceuticals (6.1%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.0%), metal products (2.7%) and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (2.6%).

Considering the thirteen activities in decline, food products (-5.1%) accounted for the most significant negative contribution. Other highlights were the negative results of manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories and leather, travel articles and footwear (-2.3%).

Among the main economic categories, the profile of results for the 12 months of 2018 showed more dynamism for durable consumer goods (7.6%) and capital goods (7.4%), mainly due to the increased manufacture of cars (10.8%) and “brown goods” (4.4%), in the former; and capital goods for transportation equipment (13.8%) and for construction (25.2%), in the latter. The sector of intermediate goods (0.4%) also recorded a positive result in the cumulative index in the year, but below the national average (1.1%), whereas semi and non-durable goods accounted for the only negative result (-0.3%).