January 11, 2019 | Last Updated: January 11, 2019 02:11:10 PM

IPCA changes by 0.15% in December and closes 2018 at 3.75%

The Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) of December was 0.15%, above the -0.21% registered in November. That was the smallest change for a month of December since the beginning of the Real Plan*, in 1994. In December 2017, the index was 0.44%. The cumulative IPCA in 2018 was 3.75%, 0.80 percentage points below the 2017, figure, 2.95%. 

Period TAXA
December 2018 0.15%
November 2018 -0.21%
December 2017 0.44%
Cumulative in 2018 3.75%

The INPC of December was 0.14%, above the -0.25% recorded in November. As in December 2016 (0.14%), that was the smallest change for the month since the implementation of the Real Plan. The cumulative index in 2018 was 3.43%, above the 2.07% of 2017.

Additional material on the survey is available on the right. 

After the decrease of 0.21% in November, the IPCA recorded a change of 0.15% in December, mainly due to the group Food and beverages (0.44%) which, with an impact of 0.11 percentage points, accounted for almost 3/4 of the December index. On the other hand, the groups Transportation (-0.54%) and Housing (-0.15%) faced deflation, and accounted for -0.12 percentage points of the month's IPCA, as shown in the table below: 

IPCA - Change and Impact by Groups - monthly
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
November December November December
General Index -0.21 0.15 -0.21 0.15
Food and beverages  0.39 0.44 0.10 0.11
Housing -0.71 -0.15 -0.11 -0.02
Household articles 0.48 0.57 0.02 0.02
Wearing apparel -0.43 1.14 -0.03 0.06
Transportation -0.74 -0.54 -0.14 -0.10
Health and personal care -0.71 0.32 -0.09 0.04
Personal expenses 0.36 0.29 0.04 0.03
Education 0.04 0.21 0.00 0.01
Communication -0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Índices de Preços    

The group of food products recorded an increase from November (0.39%) to December (0.44%), and accounted for a bigger contribution to the index. The main impacts came from food at home (from 0.34% in November to 0.50% in December). Although some products had their price reduced in December, for example, long life milk (-7.73%), bread roll (-1.31%) and rice (-1.19%), other products, also important, accounted for negative contributions, such as onions (24.03%), potatoes (20.05%), pinto beans (12.98%), fruit (3.11%) and meat (2.04%). Food away from home decelerated from November (0.49%) to December (0.33%).

The most significant individual impacts on the IPCA of December, both negative and positive, were recorded by Transportation (-0.54% and -0.10 percentage points), due to airfares, with an increase of 29.12% (0.12 percentage points), and fuels, the prices of which were, on the average, 4.25% cheaper and accounted for -0.25 percentage points. 

The main items accounting for the group Transportation (-0.54%) were fuels (-4.25%), mainly gasoline (-4.80%), followed by diesel (-3.45%) and ethanol (-2.70%).

Urban buses (0.13%) includes the price adjustment in the fares of Aracaju (9.43%), 14.00%, since December 9, and 6.76% in Campo Grande (5.95%), since December 03. Considering intercity buses (0.77%), there was adjustment of fare prices in Aracaju (10.71%), 14.00%, since December 09, and 9.45% in Porto Alegre (5.98%), since December 1st. 

Housing, with a decrease of 0.15%, less significant than that recorded in November (-0.71%), had a great contribution from the item electricity (-1.96% and -0.08 percentage points) as a result of the change in the tariff flag, from yellow (in November, with the additional chrge of R$0,01 per every kwh consumided, to green, free of extra charge. The areas recorded a change ranging between -8.17%, of the metropolitan area of Fortaleza and 6.71%, of Rio Branco. In the latter, the price adjustment of 21.29% went into effect on December 13, 2018, and was halted on January 03, 2019 by means of a legal decision. 

Also relevant in terms of Housing (-0.15%), the item water and sewage rate (0.71%) reflects the adjustment of fares, in Rio de Janeiro (5.65%), in effect since December 1st, and 8.60%, in Porto Alegre (1.85%), since December 16th.

In the group Weariong apparel (1.14%), the highlights were women's apparel (2.34%), men's apparel (1.57%) and child's apparel (0.91%).

In the other groups, the highlights, recording increases, were: health insurance plan (0.80%), domestic worker (0.34%) and household appliances (0.92%).

As for regional indexes, the highest level was that of Aracaju (0.67%), a result of the price adjustment of 14.00% in urban bus fares (9.43%), in effect since December 09 and of airfares (32.15%). The metropolitan area of Curitiba (-0.17%) recorded the lowest index due to the decreases of 6.40% in gasoline and 2.72% in electricity.  See below the monthly results by area surveyed: 

IPCA - CHange by areas - monthly and cumulative in the year
Area Regional weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative change (%)
November Dezember Year 
Aracaju 0.79 -0.31 0.67 2.64
Rio Branco 0.42 -0.11 0.63 3.44
Salvador 6.12 -0.31 0.56 4.04
Belém 4.23 0.00 0.48 3.00
Rio de Janeiro 12.06 -0.02 0.40 4.30
Brasília 2.80 -0.43 0.32 3.06
Porto Alegre 8.40 -0.42 0.26 4.62
São Luís 1.87 -0.11 0.25 2.65
Recife 4.20 -0.11 0,18 2.84
Fortaleza 2.91 -0.07 0.07 2.90
Campo Grande 1.51 -0.31 0.06 2.98
São Paulo 3067 -0,30 0.03 3.68
Belo Horizonte 10.86 -0.09 0.01 4.00
Vitória 1.78 -0.30 -0.01 4.19
Goiânia 3.59 0.12 -0.03 3.14
Curitiba 7.79 -0.26 -0.17 3.38
Brazil 100.00 -0.21 0.15 3.75

The IPCA has been calculated by the IBGE since 1980. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília. For the calculation of the index prices collected from November 29th to December 28th, 2018 (reference) were compared to those of October 27th to November 28th, 2018 (base).

IPCA records cumulative change of 3.75% in 2018

IPCA closed 2018 with a change of 3.75%, 0.80 percentage points above the 2.95% recorded in 2017. Throughout 2018, the rates were distributed as follows:

IPCA - Month, quarter and year
Mês Change (%)
Month Quarter Year
January 0.29   0.29
February 0.32   0.61
March 0.09 0.70 0.70
April 0.22   0.92
May 0.40   1.33
June 1.26 1.89 2.60
July 0.33   2.94
August -0.09   2.85
September 0.48 0.72 3.34
October 0.45   3.81
November -0.21   3.59
December 0.15 0.39 3.75

The index of 2018 was mainly ifluenced by the expenses with products and services in the groups Housing, with a hike of 4.72% and impact of 0.74 percentage points, Transportation, with an increase of 4.19% and 0.76 percentage points and Food and beverages, with a hike of 4.04% and 0.99 percentage points. Together, these three groups make up 2.49 percentage points and account for 66% of the IPCA. The table below shows the results by groups of products and services. 

IPCA - Cumulative change and impact by groups - 2018 and 2017
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
2017 2018 2017 2018
General Index 2.95 3.75 2.95 3.75
Food and beverages  -1.87 4.04 -0.48 0.99
Housing 6.26 4.72 0.95 0.74
Household articles -1.48 3.74 -0.06 0.15
Wearing apparel  2.88 0.61 0.17 0.04
Transportation 4.10 4.19 0.74 0.76
Health and personal care 6.52 3.95 0.76 0.48
Personal expenses 4.39 2.98 0.47 0.33
Education 7.11 5.32 0.33 0.26
Communication 1.76 -0.09 0.07 0.00

Being second to Education (5.32%), the main highligh of which was regular courses (5.68%), Housing, with 4.72%, waas the group recording the biggest change. In this group, the main influence came from electricity, with cumulative change of 8.70%, in the year, and 0.31 percentage points of impact.

In 2018, the cumulative change of electricity (8.70%)was slightly below that in the previous year (10.35%). Changes in the areas ranged between -3.62%, in Fortaleza and 17.67% in São Luís. In the former, the adjustment of 3.8% in fares was the smallest among the areas surveyed. In São Luís, on the other hand, there was price adjustment of 16.94%. In addition to that, throughout the year, tariff flags went into effect and that led to additional charges, as seen in the table below:

IPCA - Electricity - tariff flags every month
Month Tariff flag Additional charge
January Green -
February Green -
March Green -
April Green -
May Yellow R$ 0.01 por kwh
June Red 2 R$ 0.05 por kwh
July Red 2 R$ 0.05 por kwh
August Red 2 R$ 0.05 por kwh
September Red 2 R$ 0.05 por kwh
October Red 2 R$ 0.05 por kwh
November Yellow  R$ 001 por kwh
December Green -

In Transportation (4.19%), which accounts for about 18.5% of the IPCA, the highlights were: airfares (16.92%), gasoline (7.24%) and urban bus fares (6.32%).

After recording a negative change (-1.87%) in the year 2017, due to a record harvest, the group Food and beverages closes 2018 with a cumulative rate of 4.04%. That group accounts for about 1/4 of household expenses and was the main impact in the year, 0.99 percentage points. The 2018 harvest wa about 5% below that of the previous year, being the highest one in the time series. 

It is worth mentioning that, in the end of May 2018, a strike of truck drivers caused interruption of supply, affecting several different products and causing the group to record a change of 2.03%  in June. That was the second biggest change in a month of June since the start of the Real Plan. 

The prices of food at home, with a weight of 15.7%, rose 4.53%, whereas food away from home, with 8.8% of the index, changed by 3.17%, as can be seen in the table below:

IPCA - Food products - Monthly Change
Month Monthly change (%)
Food and beverages Food at home Food away from home 
January 0.74 1.12 0.06
February -0.33 -0.61 0.18
March 0.07 -0.18 0.52
April 0.09 0.27 -0.22
May 0.32 0.36 0.26
June 2.03 3.09 0.17
July -0.12 -0.59 0.72
August -0.34 -0.72 0.32
September 0.10 0.00 0.29
October 0.59 0.91 0.02
November 0.39 0.34 0.49
December 0.44 0.50 0.33
Cumulative 4.04 4.53 3.17

By area, rates ranged between 1.23% São Luís and 6.11% in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre, the area that leads the ranking, also food at home, as shown in the table below:

IPCA - Food products -Change in the year by area
Area Cumulative change in the year (%)
Food and beverages Food at home Food away from home
Porto Alegre 6.11 8.21 1.93
Vitória 4.95 5.72 3.55
Salvador 4.82 4.21 6.14
Curitiba 4.49 4.73 4.10
São Paulo 4.43 5.43 3.01
Rio Branco 4.43 4.84 3.70
Brasília 4.18 5.21 2.90
Belo Horizonte 3.79 4.58 2.19
Goiânia 3.71 4.42 2.41
Campo Grande 3.39 3.42 3.33
Rio de Janeiro 3.38 2.45 4.64
Recife 3.17 4.11 1.00
Fortaleza 2.83 2.61 3.46
Aracaju 2.04 2.30 1.40
Belém 1.64 1.73 1.33
São Luís 1.23 2.18 -1.47
Brazil 4.04 4.53 3.17

The main increases recorded by Food products in 2018 were: 

IPCA - Food products - Main increases in 2018
Item 2017 2018
Change (%) Change  (%) Impact (p.p.)
Tomato -4.23 71.76 0.13
Fruits -16.52 14.10 0.13
Food away from home 3.91 2.38 0.12
Snack away from home 3.81 4.35 0.09
Long life milk  -8.44 8.43 0.07
Bread roll 1.24 6.46 0.07
Meat -2.50 2.25 0.06
Potato -3.91 23.76 0.04
Onion -0.72 36.71 0.04
Rice -10.86 5.31 0.03
Noodles -2.90 10.53 0.03
Beer away from home 4.35 3.71 0.03
Green vegetables 0.88 10.79 0.02
Chicken pieces -5.13 6.44 0.02
Cheese -2.61 4.17 0.02
Soft drinks 2.97 2.66 0.02
Whole chicken -8.67 4.08 0.02
Soft drink away from home 2.00 4.70 0.02
Wheat flour -11.53 18.10 0.01
Yogurt 0.37 5.56 0.01
Sweets 4.67 4.27 0.01
Fish 2.67 2.94 0.01
Powdered milk -9.56 4.10 0.01
Pinto beans -46.06 4.55 0.01
Coffee 2.56 8.64 0.01
Margarine 3.02 3.97 0.01
Carrot 18.24 12.59 0.01
Canned food 2.98 3.43 0.01

Accounting for the main decreases in this group were:

IPCA - Food products - Main decreases in 2018
Item 2017 2018
Change (%) Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
Ground coffee 6.59 -8.22 -0.03
Manioc flour -3.93 -13.26 -0.02
Granulated sugar -22.32 -6.36 -0.02
Garlic -22.50 -10.81 -0.01
Eggs 2.94 -4.03 -0.01
Refined sugar -18.21 -5.93 -0.01
Black-eyed peas -32.42 -16.73 -0.01
Ice cream -4.45 -4.07 -0.01

Health and personal care closed the year with a change of 3.95%. In that group, a relevant contribution was that of health insurance, which stayed ta 11.17%, the main individual impact on the annual index. 

Besides the previous groups, there were positive contributions to the index of the year: Household articles (3.74%), in which the highlights were household appliances (6.28%); Personal expenses (2.98%), with a highlight to the item domestic worker (3.84%) and Wearing apparel (0.61%), with a change of 1.28% in women's apparel. The group Communication (-0.09%) recordd a negative change, with a highlight to landline telephone (-1.28%).

Among the indexes by area, Porto Alegre (4.62%) recorded the biggest change, being thesome highlights fruits (46.15%) and electricity (17.58%). Although Aracaju (2.64%) and São Luís (2.65%) recorded changes belo that of Recife (2.84%), the calculation considerd the 12 months of the year, and those two, together with Rio Branco (3.44%), were included in the price index in May 2018. So, in the index of Recife (2.84%), the decreases of manioc flour (-23.83%) and personal hygiene (-2.08%) helped control the rate. The cumulative indexes by area surveyd area presented in the table below: 

IPCA - Annual change by area
Area Regional Weight (%) Annual change (%)
2017 2018
Porto Alegre 8.40 2.52 4.62
Rio de Janeiro 12.06 3.03 4.30
Vitória 1.78 2.55 4.19
Salvador 6.12 2.14 4.04
Belo Horizonte 10.86 2.03 4.00
São Paulo 30.67 3.63 3.68
Rio Branco* 0.42 - 3.44
Curitiba 7.79 3.42 3.38
Goiânia 3.59 3.76 3.14
Brasília 2.80 3.76 3.06
Belém 4.23 1.14 3.00
Campo Grande 1.51 2.11 2.98
Fortaleza 2.91 2.27 2.90
Recife 4.20 3.31 2.84
São Luís* 1.87 - 2.65
Aracaju* 0.79 - 2.64
Brasil 100.00 2.95 3.75

INPC changes by 0.14% in December and closes 2018 at 3.43%

The National Consumer Price Index - INPC recorded a change of 0.14% in December, above the -0.25% of November. As in December 2016, it is the lowest change in December since the start of the Real Plan. The index closed 2018 with a cumulative result of 3.43%, above the 2.07% of 2017. In December 2017, the INPC was 0.26%.

Food products changed by 0.45% in December, the same result as in the previous month. Non-food products changed by 0.01%, above the rate of -0.55% (November).

The highest regional index was that of Aracaju (0.83%), a result of the adjustment (14.00%) in urban bus fares (9.43%), in effect since December 09 and in the item personal hygiene (3.90%). The lowest index was that of the metropolitan area of Curitiba (-0.32%)  due to the decreases of 6.40% in gasoline  and of 2.80% in electricity. See, below, all the monthy results by area surveyed:

INPC - Change by regions - monthly and cumulative in the year
Area Regional Weight (%) Change (%) Cumulative Change (%)
November December Year
Aracaju 1.29 -0.36 0.83 2.32
Salvador 8.75 -0.21 0.63 3.70
Rio Branco 0.59 -0.16 0.56 3.73
Belém 6.44 -0.03 0.44 2.59
São Luís 3.11 -0.08 0.34 2.37
Recife 5.88 -0.08 0.28 2.30
Porto Alegre 7.38 -0.54 0.20 4.56
Fortaleza 5.42 0.06 0.14 2.69
Rio de Janeiro 9.51 -0.26 0.13 4.17
Campo Grande 1.64 -0.43 0.10 2.57
Brasília 1.88 -0.58 0.04 2.24
Belo Horizonte 10.60 -0.10 0.03 3.63
São Paulo 24.24 -0.43 0.01 3.54
Goiânia 4.15 0.34 -0.10 2.88
Vitória 1.83 -0.41 -0.27 3.96
Curitiba 7.29 -0.34 -0.32 3.33
Brazil 100.00 -0.25 0.14 3.43

In the end of 2018, the cumulative index was 3.43%, above the 2.07% of 2017 (1.36 percentage points). Food products recorded a change of 3.82% whereas non-food products changed by 3.25%. In 2017, food products recorded a decrease of 2.70% and non-food products, a hike of 4.25%. The table below presents results by group of products and services. 

INPC - Cumulative change  and impact by group - 2018 and 2017
Group Change (%) Impact (p.p.)
2017 2018 2017 2018
General index 2.07 3.43 2.07 3.43
Food and beverages -2.70 3.82 -0.85 1.15
Housing 6,35 4.48 1.11 0.82
Household articles  -1.84 3.36 -0.09 0.16
Wearing apparel  2.73 0.64 0.19 0.05
Transportation 4.64 4.50 0.72 0.71
Health and personal care 4.76 1.97 0.47 0.19
Personal expenses  3.69 2.54 0.27 0.19
Education 7.01 5.34 0.21 0.17
Communication 1.22 -0.40 0.04 -0.01

The metropolitan area of Porto Alegre (4.56%) had the highest regional index, considering the hike of 44.66% in fruits and of 17.47% in electricity. The lowest index was that of Brasília (2.24%), where the fall of beer (-10.73%) and personal hygiene (-7.60%) helped control the rate. The indexes, by area surveyed, are presented in the table below:

INPC - Annual change by area
Area Regional Weight (%) Annual Change (%)
2017 2018
Porto Alegre 7.38 2.00 4.56
Rio de Janeiro 9.51 1.26 4.17
Vitória 1.83 1.85 3.96
Rio Branco 0.59 - 3.73
Salvador 8.75 1.84 3.70
Belo Horizonte 10.60 1.13 3.63
São Paulo 24.24 2.68 3.54
Curitiba 7.29 3.24 3.33
Goiânia 4.15 3.14 2.88
Fortaleza 5.42 1.91 2.69
Belém 6.44 0.74 2.59
Campo Grande 1.64 0,85 2.57
São Luís 3.11 - 2.37
Aracaju 1.29 - 2.32
Recife 5.88 2.62 2.30
Brasília 1,88 3,09 2,24
Brazil 100,00 2,07 3,43

The INPC has been calculated by the IBGE since 1979. It refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 5 minimum wages, with a salaried head of the household. It encompasses ten metropolitan areas in Brazil, besides the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasília.  In order to estimate the index of the month, the prices collected from November 29 to December 28, 2018 (reference) were compared with the prices in force from October 27 to November 28, 2018 (base). 

 

* economic plan that introduced a new currency in Brazil, in 1994.