January 10, 2019 | Last Updated: January 15, 2019 12:46:08 PM

IBGE expects grain harvest 3.1% bigger in 2019

In the third forecast for the 2019 harvest, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 233.4 million tonnes, 3.1% above the 2018 harvest, which represented 7.0 more million tonnes. The growth was mainly due to the bigger estimates in the production of corn (6.9 million tonnes), cotton seed (199.7 thousand tonnes) and soybeans (945.6 thousand tonnes). The estimates in the production of rice (567.3 thousand tonnes) and beans (90.7 thousand tonnes) declined. The area to be harvested was estimated at 62.2 million hectares, 2.1% bigger than the current harvest. Upland cottonseed (17.1%), soybean grain (2.1%) and corn grain (3.6%) registered a positive change. Paddy rice and beans recorded a negative change of 6.2% and 1.8%, respectively.

On the other hand, the 12th estimate for 2018 added up to 226.5 million tonnes, 5.9% smaller than that obtained in 2017 (14.2 less million tonnes). The estimate of the harvested area (60.9 million hectares) was 248.3 thousand hectares smaller than that of 2017. Rice, corn and soybeans represented 93.1% of the estimated output and accounted for 87.1% of the harvested area. The area for soybeans increased 2.9% and the area for corn and rice reduced 8.3% and 7.8%, respectively, in relation to 2017. Concerning the output, corn and rice dropped 18.3% and 5.8%, respectively, whereas soybeans increased 2.5%.

In regional terms, the volume of the output showed the following distribution: Central-West, 101.0 million tonnes; South, 74.5 million tonnes; Southeast, 22.9 million tonnes; Northeast, 19.1 million tonnes and North, 8.9 million tonnes. In relation to the previous harvest, it increased 7.0% in the Northeast and 0.4% in the North, and decreased 4.6% in the Central-West, 11.3% in the South and 4.4% in the Southeast. Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a share of 26.9%, followed by Paraná (15.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.6%). These states together accounted for 57.0% of the national forecast:

December estimate for 2018 226.5 million tonnes
December 2018 / November 2018 change -0.4%
2018 harvest / 2017 harvest change -5.9%
Third estimate for 2019 harvest 233.4 million tonnes
2019 harvest / 2018 harvest change 3.1%

For 2019, third forecast estimates harvest 3.1% bigger than that of 2018

In the third forecast, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 233.4 million tonnes for 2019, representing an increase of 3.1% over the previous year, which represented 7.0 more million tonnes. The growth was mainly due to the bigger estimates in the production of corn (6.9 million tonnes), cotton seed (199.7 thousand tonnes) and soybeans (945.6 thousand tonnes). The estimates in the production of rice (567.3 thousand tonnes) and beans (90.7 thousand tonnes) declined.

In the analysis of the five most important products for the next harvest, rice (4.8%) and beans (3.0%) should have negative changes in the output in relation to 2018. Conversely, increases were estimated for soybeans, cotton seed and corn grain of 0.8%, 6.6% and 8.4%, respectively. Concerning the estimated area, upland cottonseed (17.1%,) soybean grain (2.1%) and corn grain (3.6%) registered positive changes. Paddy rice and beans recorded a negative change of 6.2% and 1.8%, respectively.

UPLAND COTTON (seed) - The third forecast of the harvest of cotton in 2019 estimated a production of 5.3 million tonnes, 6.6% bigger than that of 2018. The planted area (1.3 million hectares) grew 17.1%. Mato Grosso estimated an output of 3.6 million tonnes, an increase of 13.7% over the 2018 harvest, and should account for 68.9% of the national production. Large areas available, expertise and improved technology in the crops, as well as a more stable climate in the Cerrado biome of the Central-West Region, compared with other regions, made Mato Grosso the major cotton farmer in Brazil.

PADDY RICE - The third estimate for 2019 was of a production of 11.2 million tonnes and an average yield of 6,369 kg/ha, representing a decline of 4.8% and an increase of 1.4% over 2018, respectively. As the largest producer of rice in Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul should account for 71.1% of the total to be harvested in 2019. The output in Rio Grande do Sul was estimated at 7.9 million tonnes. As the second national producer, Santa Catarina estimated an output of 1.1 million tonnes and an average yield of 7,663 kg/ha, virtually maintaining what was obtained in the 2018 harvest.

In the Central-West, Mato Grosso estimated a production of 466.7 thousand tonnes, representing a retreat of 7.1% over the previous year. For Goiás, the output was estimated at 103.3 thousand tonnes, a drop of 12.4% and, for Mato Grosso do Sul, a production of 60.1 thousand tonnes, a reduction of 10.0%. In the Northeast, Maranhão and Piauí estimated an output of 182.2 and 79.1 thousand tonnes, less 12.0% and 27.7% than in 2018, respectively. In the North, Tocantins estimated an output of 652.8 thousand tonnes, a decline of 1.1% over the previous year. Pará, with 104.0 thousand tonnes, Roraima, with 54.5 thousand tonnes and Rondônia, with 119.1 thousand tonnes, were the other most important rice farmers in this region.

COFFEE BEANS - The production of coffee was estimated at 3.2 million tonnes (53.4 million 60-kg sacks) for 2019, a decrease of 10.8% in relation to the 2018 harvest. For coffea arabica, the output was estimated at 2.3 million tonnes or 38.2 million 60-kg sacks, representing a decline of 14.9%. The planted area (1.7 million hectares) registered a reduction of 0.2%. The area to be harvested (1.5 million hectares) increased 0.3% and the average yield (1,541 kg/ha) was estimated with a retraction of 15.1%, as this species alternates years of high and low production. The year of 2018 was characterized by a high production. As the largest producer of coffea arabica in Brazil with 70.1% of the overall output, Minas Gerais estimated to harvest 1.6 million tonnes or 27.3 million 60-kg sacks, a retreat of 13.4% over the previous year. Other important producers like São Paulo and Espírito Santo were also estimating a production below that of 2018, with 271.4 and 177.6 thousand tonnes, respectively. São Paulo estimated a decline of 27.4% and Espírito Santo, of 21.2%. For coffea canephora (conillon), the output was estimated at 913.4 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.5% over the previous year. Estimated at 606.9 thousand tonnes, the production in Espírito Santo increased 2.6% and the average yield should rise 2.3%. Rondônia estimated a production of 143.7 thousand tonnes or 2.4 million 60-kg sacks, a growth of 3.3% over the previous year. Another important producer of conillon coffee, Bahia estimated a production of 129.6 thousand tonnes or 2.2 million 60-kg sacks.

BEANS (seed) - The third estimate of the production of beans for the 2019 harvest was of 2.9 million tonnes, representing a retraction of 3.0% over 2018. The first crop should produce 1.4 million tonnes; the second crop, 1.1 million tonnes and the third crop, 467.4 thousand tonnes. The area to be harvested in the summer harvest (first crop) should be reduced by 4.7% compared with 2018, i.e., less 74.7 thousand hectares and reaching 1.6 million hectares, whereas the average yield should decline by 6.4%, recording 820 kg/ha. The estimated output of beans in the summer harvest should be 10.8% smaller than that obtained this time in 2018. The planting areas of the second and third crops depend a lot on the product prices and climate, since the crops are very sensitive to the hydrological conditions, especially in the most important  phenological phases, like flourishing and grain filling. Due to the shorter cycle of beans, droughts and Indian summers used to drastically affect this legume.

CORN (grain) - The third forecast of corn grain for 2019 estimated an output of 88.2 million tonnes, a growth of 8.4% over the previous year, which represented an increase of 6.9 million tonnes. The forecast for the first crop of corn was of 26.4 million tonnes, 2.7% higher than that in the previous month (second forecast), increasing 2.6% over the same period of 2018. Despite the current prices being at higher levels than those practiced by the decision of planting the first crop in 2018, the producers should not increase the investments in the summer harvest, since soybeans are the priority, due to the expected higher profitability of that legume. For the second crop of corn, the production estimate was of 61.8 million tonnes, representing a growth of 11.1% over 2018.

SOYBEAN (grain) - The third production estimate for 2019 added up to 118.8 million tonnes, an increase of 0.9% over the second forecast in November and a growth of 0.8% over 2018. The area to be planted was 35.6 million hectares, an increase of 0.5% in relation to the previous month and of 1.9% in relation to 2018. Mato Grosso, in the Central-West Region, that should account for 26.8% of the overall production in Brazil in 2019, estimated to harvest 31.8 million tonnes, a growth of 0.6% over 2018 in spite of the increase of 1.9% in the area to be planted. With a production estimate of 11.2 million tonnes, Goiás expected a decline of 1.4%, whereas Mato Grosso do Sul, with 10.2 million tonnes, estimated an increase of 3.6% in the output. As the second largest producer and accounting for 16.3% of the national overall, Paraná, in the South Region, estimated to produce 19.3 million tonnes. As the third largest producer of this legume, Rio Grande do Sul estimated a production of 18.6 million tonnes, representing a growth of 6.1% over 2018 and of 0.3% over the previous month. Expecting 5.4 million tonnes, Minas Gerais, in the Southeast Region, estimated a drop of 0.1% over the previous year, while São Paulo, which estimated an output of 3.5 million tonnes, was 1.6% bigger. In the Northeast Region, the production in Bahia, Maranhão and Piauí stood out. These states, together with Tocantins (North Region), integrate the "MATOPIBA", a region with an expanding agriculture, due to the introduction of new planting areas in the Cerrado biome of these states. Bahia, with 4.9 million tonnes, estimated a decline of 20.8%. Maranhão, with an estimated production of 3.1 million tonnes, registered an increase of 12.1% over 2018, whereas Piauí, with an estimated output of 2.6 million tonnes, increased 4.1%. In the North Region, the highlights were Tocantins, Rondônia and Pará, which estimated productions of 2.7, 0.9 and 1.8 million tonnes, respectively.

Highlights in December 2018 estimates over November

In December, the following production estimates stood out over November: sorghum (10.9%), grapes (9.7%), potatoes - 3rd crop (3.4%), potatoes - 2nd crop (3.0%), coffea canephora (1.2%), soybeans (-0.1%), corn - 1st crop (-0.5%), corn- 2nd crop (-0.6%), cassava (-2.5%), wheat (-6.7%) and potatoes - 1st crop (-8.0%). Concerning the absolute changes, the positive highlights were sorghum (220,901 t), grapes (141,106 t), potatoes - 2nd crop (34,879 t), potatoes - 3rd crop (34,100 t), and coffea canephora (10,896 t). The negative highlights were soybeans (-94,014 t), corn - 1st crop (-125,165 t), potatoes - 1st crop (141,804 t), corn - 2nd crop (-363,231 t), wheat (-378,959 t) and cassava (-500,066 t).

POTATOES - The Brazilian production estimate was of 3.8 million tonnes, representing a reduction of 1.9% over the previous month. The first crop produced 1.6 million tonnes, a decline of 8.0%. Accounting for 25.2% of the output of this harvest, Minas Gerais reassessed its estimates this month, reporting a production of 411.7 thousand tonnes, a decline of 25.6% over the previous month. For the second and third crops, the estimated production reached 1.2 and 1.0 million tonnes, respectively, having increased 3.0% and 3.4% over the previous month. Nevertheless, the declined 4.1% and 4.6% over 2017, respectively. In relation to the previous year, the Brazilian output of potatoes fell 10.1%. The planted and harvested areas dropped 9.5% and the average yield, 0.7%.

COFFEE (beans) - The Brazilian production of coffee this year was a new record in the IBGE´s time series. Altogether, Brazil produced 3.6 million tonnes or 59.9 million 60-kg sacks, representing an increase of 0.5% over the previous month. The Brazilian output of coffee grew 29.4% over 2017, due to the increase of 31.6% in the productivity of the crops. Friendlier climate, increased investments in culture and technology and biennial positive bearing of the harvest of coffea arabica were responsible for the excellent production of coffee in 2018. The estimated production of coffea arabica was of 2.7 million tonnes or 44.9 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 0.3% over the previous month. The output of coffea arabica increased 28.6% over 2017, due to the increase of 30.2% in the average yield.

In December, São Paulo rose its estimated production by 2.6%, an increase of 9.5 thousand tonnes to that reported in the previous month. The output in Minas Gerais should hit 1.9 million tonnes or 31.5 million 60-kg sacks, standing as the largest producer in Brazil with a share of 70.1% of the total production. The third largest producer, Espírito Santo, estimated a reduction of 1.2% in its production in December. Other important states in the production of coffea arabica, Bahia and Paraná, estimated an output of 108.8 and 56.7 thousand tonnes, respectively. For coffea canephora, the estimated production of 899.5 thousand tonnes or 15.0 60-kg sacks was 1.2% smaller than that in the previous month. In December, the production in Espírito Santo was reassessed, being estimated a growth of 2.0% over the previous month.                                              The production in Espírito Santo was of 591.5 thousand tonnes or 9.9 million 60-kg sacks.                                                                                                                              This state accounted for 65.8% of the national output. In relation to the previous year, the production of coffee conillon increased 32.0%. The most important increases were reported by Espírito Santo (56.0%) and Bahia (15.7%). The output in these states has been recovering over the last years, after a drastic reduction due to the long period of drought.

CASSAVA (root) - The estimate of the production of cassava was of 19.4 million tonnes, representing a decline of 2.5% over the previous month. Minas Gerais negatively reassessed its production estimate, with a reduction of 40.5%. The output in Minas Gerais was estimated at 487.3 thousand tonnes. Due to the not so rewarding prices of cassava, many producers decide to extend the cropping time. Other important states for the production of cassava, Paraná (17.9% share in the national overall), São Paulo (5.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (5.0%), also reported declining estimates compared with the previous month. In Paraná, the reduction was of 2.5%, being estimated an output of 3.5 million tonnes. São Paulo reduced 1.2% and should produce 1.1 million tonnes. For Rio Grande do Sul, the estimated production was of 964.3 thousand tonnes, a retreat of 1.1%. The output of cassava declined 5.9% over 2017, due to the reduction of 2.4% in the planted area, of 2.8% in the harvested area and of 3.2% in the average yield.

CORN (grain) - The production estimate declined by 488.4 thousand tonnes or 0.6% over November, adding up to 81.4 million tonnes. The output estimate was 18.3% smaller in relation to 2017. Having produced 99.5 million tonnes in 2017, the production of corn in Brazil established a record in the IBGE´s time series. In the first crop of corn, the output reached 25.7 million tonnes. The production was 17.1% smaller in relation to the previous year. Prices not so rewarding during the planting season influenced the producers to improve the areas destined to soybeans rather than corn. In December, Goiás reassessed its production estimate. The output of 1.6 million tonnes declined 7.1%. In most Federation Units, corn - 2nd crop was planted later, since the harvest of the summer harvests delayed. As a result, the crops were exposed to drought periods, especially in the center-south of Brazil. The output was estimated at 55.6 million tonnes, cropped in 11.6 million hectares. In relation to the previous month, the monthly change fell 0.6% in the production estimate. In terms of volume of production, the major negative adjustments came from São Paulo (8.1%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (3.6%). The production of corn - 2nd crop was 18.8% smaller in relation to the previous year.

SOYBEAN (grain) – the production estimate dropped 0.1% in December as a result of small adjustments in the output in Tocantins (2.6%), Maranhão (0.1%), Minas Gerais (0.2%) and Goiás (-1.5%). The Brazilian production of soybean added up to 117.8 million tonnes, an increase of 2.5% over the previous year. Rainfall delayed by the time the summer harvest was being planted. Rainfall arrived in most producing regions, except in the South, where they stopped by end of the cycle. compromising the productivity of the crops and, thus, the production, which fell 4.5%. Despite the retraction in December, the soybean prices were still steady, due to the increasing demand from China. Moreover, the devaluation of the Real increase the competitiveness of the Brazilian soybean.

SORGHUM (grain) - The estimated production reached in August 2.3 million tonnes, an increase of 10.9% in relation to the previous month. The planted area and area to be harvested grew 3.8%, whereas the average yield increased 6.8%. As the second largest producer of this cereal with a share of 35.7% of the overall production, Minas Gerais had its estimate increased by 34.0%. The output of sorghum grew 4.8% over the last year.

WHEAT (grain) - The estimate of the Brazilian production was of 5.3 million tonnes, representing a retreat of 6.7% over the previous month. In 2018, Paraná produced 2.8 million tonnes. It was considered a fair output, despite the drought during the cycle and rainfall during the harvest. Rio Grande do Sul produced 1.8 million tonnes, a reduction of 16.7% over the previous month. The producers also faced climate problems. Together, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, accounted for 86.2% of the overall production. In São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, the estimates retreated 9.1% and 7.8%, respectively, also due to the adverse climate. Not so compelling prices, low liquidity and climate problems have been affecting the production of wheat in Brazil. Yet, the production estimate for 2018 was 25.1% bigger when compared with the 2017 harvest, year in which the unfavorable climate strongly jeopardized the production in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná.

GRAPES - The estimate of the Brazilian production of grapes reached 1.6 million tonnes, an increase of 9.7% over the previous month. In December, Bahia and Pernambuco reassessed their production estimates. In Bahia, it grew 63.4% compared with the previous month. The output of grapes in Bahia reached 75.4 thousand tonnes, lifting it to the fourth position. In Pernambuco, the second largest producer, the estimate grew to 423.4 thousand tonnes, representing an increase of 34.5% over the previous month. Compared with the previous year, the output of grapes retreated 5.2%. The the largest producer of this fruit, the production in Rio Grande do Sul declined 14.0% due to the climate, which was not so good in 2018 as it was in 2017.