January 08, 2019 | Last Updated: January 08, 2019 06:56:02 PM

Industrial output changes by 0.1% in November

In November 2018, industrial production in Brazil changed by 0.1% against the October figure (seasonally-adjusted series), interrompting a four-month sequence of negative rates, a period marked by a decrease of 2.8%. Against November 2017 (seasonally adjusted series), industry recorded a decrease of 0.9%, and reversed the expansion of 0.8% (October). 

November 2018 /October 2018 0.1%
November 2018 / November 2017 -0.9%
Cumulative in 2018 1.5%
Cumulative in 12 months 1.8%
Quarterly moving average -0.6%

The cumulative indexes in the year (1.5%) and in 12 months (1.8%) remain positive, but the sector remained in deceleration versus preceding months. The complete Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) is available on the right of the page. 

Industrial Output - Major Economic Categories - Brazil - November 2018
Major Economic Categories Change (%)
November 2018/
October 2018*
November 2018/
November 2017
Cumulative  
January-November
Cumulative in 12 Months
Capital goods -2.7 3.5 8.2 8.3
Intermediate goods 0.7 -1.4 0.6 0.9
Consumer goods -0.4 -0.9 1.9 2.1
  Durable -3.4 -3.4 9.5 10.3
  Semi-durable/Non-durable 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1
Overall industry 0.1 -0.9 1.5 1.8
  Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
    *Seasonally-adjusted series

Ten of the 26 subsectors of industry recorded increase

With the hike of industrial activity by 0.1% from October to November 2018, only one of the four major economic categories recorded increase of output. Among the activities, the most significant positive contribution was that of food products, a sector which advanced 5.9%, after four consecutive months recording decrease and a cumulative loss of 10.3%. It is also worth mentioning the positive results of pharmaceutical products (7.1%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (0.5%), as the former recorded expansion for the second month in a row and increase of 7.4% in the period; and the latter stopped a sequence of three months with negative results, having a cumulated decrease of 9.9%. 

Considering the 16 subsectors with falling results, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, with a decrease of 4.2% and an increase of 2.8% in October, had the most relevant performance. Other negative impacts were those of machinery and equipment (-3.2%), miscellaneous products (-13.3%), other chemicals (-2.0%), mining and quarrying industry (-0.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-1.3%), electrical machinery and apparatuses (-1.8%) and printing and reproduction of recorded media (-7.9%). Except for the last aforementioned activity, which recorded the second decrease in a row in this type of comparison, the other ones had had positive results in the previous month: 8.8%, 3.2%, 0.4%, 3.2%, 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

Among the major economic categories, also against results of October, the category intermediate goods (0.7%) had the only positive rate in the month and interrupted a series of three months with decrease and a cumulative decrease of 3.9%. On the other hand, producers of durable consumer goods (-3.4%) and capital goods (-2.7%) faced a decrease in the month, and both reversed the increases observed in the preceding month: 2.4% and 1.2%, respectively. The segment of semi and non-durable goods recorded a null change (0.0%) after a decrease of 2.8% in four consecutive months with negative rates. 

Quarterly moving average index decreases by 0.6%

Also in the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index fell by 0.6% in the quarter ended November against the level in the previous month, after recording a decrease in September (-0.9%) and October (-0.9%). Among the major economic categories, durable consumer goods (-2.2%) recorded the highest negative result in November 2018 and remained on a downward trend as initiated in August.

The sectors that produce capital goods (-1.1%), semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.4%) and intermediate goods (-0.3%) also had negative rates in the month. The first one recorded a decrease again after having increased 1.7% in October; the second one had cumulated decrease of 2.0% in the period; and the third one has remained on a downward trend since August 2018.

Industry decreased 0.9% against November 2017

Against November 2017, industry fell by 0.9%, with negative results in three of the four major economic categories, 14 of the 26 subsectors, 50 of the 79 groups and 52.7% of the 805 products surveyed. November 2018 (20 days) had the same number of business days as the previous month (20). Among the activities, the main negative impact was that of food products (-5.0%), due to the smaller production of granulated and VHP sugar, concentrated orange juice, meat and frozen poultry giblets and animal feed.

Among the 12 subsectors that recorded expansion of output, the main impact was registered by mining and quarrying industry (3.3%), as a result of the bigger production of iron ore. Other relevant positive contributions came from motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.3%), pharmaceuticals (7.3%), metal products (5.9%) and pulp, paper and paper products (3.9%).

Durable consumer goods (-3.4%) and intermediate goods (-1.4%) had the most significant decreases among the major economic categories. The segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) also recorded a negative result, but below the national average (-0.9%). Capital goods (3.5%) recorded the only positive rate in the month. 

The segment of durable consumer goods decreased 3.4% in November 2018 against the same period in the previous year, after an increase of 6.7% in October. This month, the sector was mainly pressed by the decrease in the production of brown goods (-19.2%), due to the reduced production of television sets. It is also worth mentioning the decreases in "white goods" (-2.4%), furniture (-4.8%) and other household appliances (-0.1%). The most significant positive impacts were those of cars (0.9%) and motorcycles (6.3%).

The production of intermediate goods (-1.4%) recorded the third negative rate in a row, with  a bigger decrease than in the previous month (-0.6%).  This month's result was mainly a consequence of decreases in products associated with food products (-9,7%), other chemicals (-5.0%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.6%), machinery and equipment (-4.6%), rubber products and plastic material (-1.9%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-1.6%)  and textiles (-3.6%), whereas positive contributions came from mining and quarrying industry (3.3%), pulp, paper and paper products (4.2%), metal products (3.1%), basic metals (0.5%) and non-metallic mineral products (0.5%).

The segment of semi and non-durable goods changed by -0.3% in November, with a predominatly negative behavior in the last four months: August (-0.7%), September (-1.8%) and October (0.0%). The performance is a result, mainly, of the decrease in the group elaborated food and beverages for domestic consumption (-2.3%), due the the reduced production of beers, draft beers, concentrated orange juice and meat and frozen poultry giblets. The negative result of the subsector fuels (-2.7%) was influenced by the decrease recorded by motor gasoline. 

The groups of non-durable (4.6%) and semi-durable (0.6%) goods had positive rates in this category, due to the expanded output of medicines, in the first group, and of twin sets for women (made of cotton or not), molded plastic and leather footwear for women, shorts, dungarees, shorts and similar clothing for female use, molded rubber footwear, aluminum items for domestic use, shirts, blouses and similr clothing for female use (made or cotton or not) and shirts for male use, in the second. 

Producers of capital goods increased by 3.5%, the sixth positive result in a row, but the least significant in this sequence. In the month, the segment was influenced by the advance of capital goods for transportation (5.1%), due to the bigger output of de trailers and semi-trailers, trucks and tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers. The other positive rates were those of capital goods for agriculture (15.9%), for construction (8.6%) and for electricity (0.5%). The negative impacts were those of capital goods for industrial use (-2.4%) and for mixed use (-0.8%).

In 2018, Industry had cumulative increase of 1.5%

In the cumulative index of 2018, against the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector recorded expansion of 1.5%, with positive results in three of the four major economic categories, 19 of the 26 subsectors, 43 of the 79 groups and 52.0% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (14.5%) accounted for the main positive contribution, due to the items cars, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, trailers and semi-trailers and car pieces.

 

Other relevant positive contributions were those of basic metals (4.7%), pulp, paper and paper products (5.8%), machinery and equipment (4.3%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.1%), mining and quarrying industry (0.9%), pharmaceutical products (4.7%), metal products (3.2%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (4.3%) and rubber products and plastic material (1.8%).

Among the seven activities which recorded decrease of output, food products (-4.7%) recorded the biggest negative contribution to the industry overall, due to granulated and VHP sugar, meat and frozen poultry giblets and animal feed. It is also worth mentioning the negative results from manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (-3.4%) and leather, travel articles and footwear (-2.6%).

Among the major economic categories, the results for 11 months of 2018 recorded biggest dynamism for durable consumer goods (9.5%) and capital goods (8.2%), due to the increased production of cars (13.3%) and brown goods (6.2%), in the former; and capital goods for transportation equipment (14,8%) and for construction (28.2%), in the second. The sector of intermediate goods (0.6%) also had a positive rate, but with an increase below the national average (1.5%), whereas semi and non-durable goods had null change (0.0%).